Casablanca – Morocco has significantly strengthened its position in the Spanish olive oil market during the 2025/2026 agricultural season, marking one of the most notable trade shifts in the Mediterranean agri-food sector in recent years. Multiple Spanish and Moroccan data sources, including Spain’s Ministry of Economy and Trade via the DataComex platform, indicate a rapid increase in Moroccan exports and a parallel recovery in domestic production that has reshaped the country’s export capacity.

During the first months of 2026, Moroccan olive oil exports to Spain experienced a dramatic increase. Shipments rose from approximately 55 tons in the same period of the previous year to nearly 2,964 tons, reflecting a surge of over 5,000%. This sharp growth pushed Morocco’s share of the Spanish import market from around 2% to 7.48% in a single year.

As a result, Morocco moved from tenth place among Spain’s olive oil suppliers to fourth place within a short period, ranking behind Tunisia, Portugal, and Italy. This development highlights a structural change in Morocco’s role in the European olive oil supply chain, particularly in the Spanish market, which remains one of the largest consumers and importers of olive oil in the world.

The upward trend was already visible earlier in the marketing season. Between October and December of the previous campaign, Spain imported around 1,430 tons of Moroccan olive oil, compared with roughly 731 tons during the same period a year earlier. This near doubling of imports suggested the beginning of a broader expansion that was later confirmed in early 2026 trade figures.

Strong rebound in Moroccan production

The export performance is closely linked to a significant recovery in Morocco’s olive oil production during the 2025/2026 season. According to projections from the Moroccan Interprofessional Olive Federation, national production is expected to reach around 200,000 tons, compared with approximately 90,000 tons recorded in the previous season. This more than twofold increase represents a strong rebound after a difficult agricultural year.

The previous season had been marked by lower output due to less favorable climatic conditions and reduced yields in several olive-growing regions. The decline had limited export availability and constrained Morocco’s presence in external markets. In contrast, the 2025/2026 season benefited from improved weather conditions and better agricultural productivity, which contributed to higher yields across major producing areas.

Sector estimates also suggest that olive harvest volumes reached around 2 million tons of olives, supporting the sharp increase in oil production. This improvement has created a surplus estimated at around 60,000 tons, part of which is directed toward export markets.

Modernization and competitiveness factors

Beyond climatic recovery, Morocco’s expanding presence in the Spanish market is also attributed to ongoing structural changes in the olive sector. Over recent years, investments have been made in modernizing olive farms and upgrading processing facilities. Traditional extraction systems have gradually been replaced or improved with more efficient technologies, helping enhance both yield and consistency.

These changes have also contributed to lowering production costs, allowing Moroccan olive oil to remain competitively priced compared to European producers. Industry observers note that this price advantage plays a central role in Morocco’s growing penetration of European markets, particularly in a context where production costs in several EU countries have increased due to energy, labor, and regulatory pressures.

Market implications in Spain and Europe

Spain, the world’s largest olive oil producer, remains a key reference point for global pricing and trade flows. The increase in Moroccan imports is closely monitored by Spanish producers, as it introduces additional competition in a market traditionally dominated by domestic supply and established Mediterranean exporters.

Although Moroccan volumes remain relatively modest compared to Spain’s total market size, the rapid growth rate has drawn attention within the industry. Analysts suggest that the trend reflects a broader diversification of Spain’s import sources during periods of fluctuating domestic production and market adjustments.

At the same time, Morocco’s olive oil exports are no longer limited to Spain. Recent data indicate increased shipments to other European and Mediterranean markets, including Italy, Portugal, and Tunisia, signaling a broader geographical expansion of Moroccan supply.

Outlook

Looking ahead, Morocco’s position in the olive oil market will likely depend on the sustainability of its production growth and continued investment in agricultural modernization. If favorable climatic conditions persist and structural improvements continue, Morocco could further consolidate its role as an emerging supplier in the Mediterranean olive oil trade.

However, market dynamics remain sensitive to annual harvest variations, particularly in a sector highly dependent on weather conditions. As such, future export performance will continue to fluctuate alongside production cycles in both Morocco and competing producing countries.

The 2025/2026 season marks a turning point in Morocco’s olive oil sector, characterized by a strong production rebound and a rapid expansion of its presence in the Spanish market, signaling a more competitive and diversified regional landscape.