Casablanca – Morocco is preparing for a strong rebound in cereal production during the 2025–2026 agricultural season, with forecasts pointing to a national harvest that could approach 9 million tons, marking one of the country’s best performances in recent years after a prolonged period of drought and declining agricultural output.

The expected recovery comes after several consecutive seasons affected by low rainfall, shrinking water reserves, and difficult climatic conditions that reduced crop yields and increased pressure on food imports. This year, however, regular rainfall, improved dam reserves, and favorable growing conditions have significantly changed the outlook across the kingdom’s main farming regions.

According to Ahmed El Bouari, Morocco’s Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries, Rural Development, Water and Forests, cereal production is expected to nearly double compared with last season, supported by widespread rainfall and the cultivation of approximately 3.9 million hectares of cereals nationwide.

The positive agricultural season is largely attributed to the better distribution of rainfall throughout the crop cycle. Unlike previous years, when rainfall was either insufficient or irregular, the current season benefited from precipitation during critical planting and growth periods, helping improve soil moisture and crop development.

Rainfall and snowfall recorded during the season also contributed to a significant rise in water reserves. Moroccan dam reserves reached around 13 billion cubic meters, with filling rates estimated at more than 75%, improving irrigation prospects and easing pressure on farmers who had struggled with water shortages in recent years.

Agricultural professionals across different regions report strong productivity levels for Morocco’s three main cereal crops: durum wheat, soft wheat, and barley.

In plains regions such as Chaouia, Doukkala, Abda, and parts of Casablanca-Settat, wheat yields have ranged between 7 and 8 tons per hectare in several areas, while barley productivity has exceeded 4.5 tons per hectare in some farms. Mountainous areas and highland regions also recorded improved results due to better vegetation cover and increased soil humidity.

Farmers and agricultural experts say the season’s success was not linked to rainfall alone. The broader use of improved farming techniques, rational fertilizer management, and closer technical monitoring also helped increase productivity across many regions.

The recovery is particularly significant because cereals occupy a central place in Morocco’s food system and daily life. Bread, semolina, couscous, and flour-based products remain essential components of Moroccan households’ consumption habits, making wheat and barley production a strategic issue linked directly to food security and social stability.

Soft wheat, in particular, plays a critical role because it is used in bread production, one of the country’s most consumed staple foods. Durum wheat is equally important for couscous and pasta production, while barley is widely used for livestock feed and rural farming systems.

Because of this importance, fluctuations in cereal production often have direct economic and social consequences. Weak harvests generally force Morocco to increase grain imports, exposing the country to international market volatility and rising global food prices.

Over the past few years, drought conditions pushed Morocco to rely heavily on imported cereals to maintain market supply and stabilize food prices. International disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions, climate events, and rising transport costs further increased pressure on import bills and domestic inflation.

The expected improvement in domestic cereal output this year could therefore help reduce import needs and improve supply stability for local markets.

Moroccan authorities have continued to implement measures aimed at ensuring sufficient quantities of cereals and protecting consumers’ purchasing power despite fluctuations in global prices.

The government has maintained support mechanisms for wheat imports and flour supply in recent years in order to avoid major increases in bread prices and preserve market stability. Authorities have also worked with grain importers, millers, and agricultural professionals to secure strategic reserves and manage supply chains during periods of international uncertainty.

At the same time, Morocco has expanded efforts to strengthen agricultural resilience through irrigation investments and water management projects. Officials recently announced additional irrigation programs intended to support agricultural production during future seasons and reduce vulnerability to recurring drought cycles.

The rebound in cereal production is also expected to support broader economic growth. Agriculture remains one of the country’s largest employers and a major source of income in rural areas, where millions of Moroccans depend directly or indirectly on farming activities.

Improved harvests typically stimulate rural demand, transportation activity, agricultural services, storage operations, and food processing industries. Higher production levels can also improve farmers’ incomes after several financially difficult years caused by reduced yields and rising production costs.

According to projections by Bank Al-Maghrib, agricultural added value could grow by more than 14% during 2026 due largely to the recovery in cereal output and improved farming conditions.

The central bank had previously estimated cereal production at around 8.2 million tons, though recent professional estimates and government statements now suggest the harvest may exceed those earlier forecasts and approach 9 million tons.

Harvest operations have already started in several regions and are expected to intensify during June as cooperatives and farms mobilize harvesting machinery and storage infrastructure.

Agricultural observers note that the current season does not eliminate long-term climate challenges facing Morocco, particularly increasing water stress and rainfall variability linked to climate change. However, the strong rebound recorded this year demonstrates the sector’s capacity to recover when climatic conditions improve and support measures remain in place.

For many farmers and rural communities, the current season represents more than a successful harvest. It marks a return of optimism after years of uncertainty and highlights the strategic importance of agriculture in maintaining food security, economic stability, and social balance across Morocco.