Casablanca – Morocco’s fertilizer sector is facing a shift in the way it secures one of its most important industrial inputs, as Chinese ammonia supplies increase while the country accelerates plans to produce ammonia locally from renewable energy.

The change comes after several years of heavy dependence on imported ammonia. Morocco has limited natural gas resources, making large-scale conventional ammonia production difficult, while its phosphate-based fertilizer sector requires substantial volumes of the chemical. OCP, the country’s main phosphate group and one of the world’s largest fertilizer producers, has traditionally relied on international suppliers to meet those requirements.

The scale of the dependence became clear in 2024, when Morocco imported about $1.59 billion worth of anhydrous ammonia, compared with roughly $872 million in 2023. Morocco was then the largest individual national importer of ammonia, accounting for about 18.6% of global imports.

Chinese supplies became particularly visible in 2026. China exported about 185,000 tons of ammonia in May, with Morocco receiving 51,050 tons. The Moroccan volume increased sharply from the previous month and represented the largest destination among China’s ammonia shipments that month. Australia, South Africa and India followed as other significant destinations.

For Morocco, the importance of these shipments lies in the role ammonia plays inside the fertilizer production chain. The country does not primarily import ammonia to sell it directly to farmers. Instead, ammonia is used as an industrial input in the production of phosphate fertilizers such as diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate. Major processing facilities, including those at Jorf Lasfar and Safi, use ammonia alongside phosphate-based raw materials in the manufacture of fertilizers destined for domestic and international markets.

This structure gives Morocco a different position from many African countries that remain dependent on imports of finished fertilizers. Across much of sub-Saharan Africa, limited domestic fertilizer production, restricted access to inputs and insufficient industrial capacity have kept import dependence high. Morocco, by contrast, has developed a large domestic fertilizer production base around its extensive phosphate resources.

The country’s phosphate reserves are estimated at about 70% of known global resources. This resource base has supported the expansion of fertilizer production and exports, but the dependence on imported ammonia has remained an important external constraint.

The supply situation became more complicated in 2026 as geopolitical tensions affected major fertilizer shipping routes. Disruptions around the Middle East and difficulties affecting routes through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden created additional uncertainty for shipments from traditional ammonia suppliers.

Morocco has historically sourced large quantities from countries including Trinidad and Tobago, Saudi Arabia and the United States. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have also been important sources for the Moroccan market. Disruptions affecting maritime routes therefore created a need for alternative supply arrangements.

China was able to respond partly because its own fertilizer market was experiencing a different set of pressures.

Chinese chemical producers generate ammonia through several industrial processes, including as a by-product of caprolactam and coke production. Under normal market conditions, a substantial share of that ammonia can be converted into ammonium sulfate and other products. During 2026, however, China’s fertilizer sector was affected by shortages and higher prices for elemental sulfur, an important input for sulfuric acid and several fertilizer processes.

At the same time, China maintained restrictions on some finished fertilizer exports to protect domestic agricultural supplies. The result was a situation in which some ammonia was available for international markets even as other fertilizer products remained subject to tighter export conditions.

Chinese fertilizer exports increased during the first five months of 2026, reaching about 14.36 million tons, while their value rose more quickly to about $3.35 billion. Ammonium sulfate accounted for a large portion of these shipments, while exports of diammonium phosphate declined sharply as greater attention was given to domestic requirements.

The increase in Chinese ammonia exports therefore needs to be viewed in the context of broader market conditions rather than as a simple long-term change in China’s position as a global ammonia supplier. The 51,050 tons delivered to Morocco in May provided an alternative source during a period of international disruption, but future volumes will depend on Chinese production conditions, domestic fertilizer policy, shipping costs and demand in other markets.

For Morocco, the episode has reinforced a longer-term objective: reducing its dependence on imported conventional ammonia. OCP has been developing plans to manufacture green ammonia using renewable electricity and green hydrogen. The group’s investment strategy includes increasing renewable energy capacity, expanding desalination and developing green hydrogen and green ammonia production. Its targets include producing around 1 million tons of green ammonia annually as part of its wider transition toward lower-carbon fertilizer production.

Earlier plans have also included a large ammonia facility in southern Morocco, supported by substantial wind and solar generation. Such projects would connect renewable electricity production with electrolysers, hydrogen production and ammonia synthesis, creating a domestic supply chain for an input that Morocco currently imports in large quantities.

The approach is closely connected to Morocco’s broader green hydrogen strategy. The country has promoted an investment framework designed to attract international companies into renewable electricity, hydrogen, ammonia, methanol and synthetic fuels.

The strategy envisages large-scale renewable projects in southern regions, combined with desalination facilities and industrial infrastructure. Electricity generated from wind and solar resources would be used to produce hydrogen through electrolysis. Hydrogen could then be combined with nitrogen to manufacture ammonia.

The economics of this model remain a major consideration. Green ammonia requires large amounts of renewable electricity and water, with desalination becoming important in regions where freshwater resources are limited. The scale of electricity required for large ammonia projects also means that renewable generation capacity must expand substantially alongside production facilities.

At the same time, European carbon regulations could influence the commercial case for Moroccan green ammonia. The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism began its definitive phase in 2026 and covers fertilizers. Conventional ammonia produced using fossil fuels can therefore face additional carbon-related costs when entering the European market.

Green ammonia remains more expensive to produce in many cases, but the difference can narrow when carbon costs are included. For a Moroccan fertilizer producer exporting to Europe, renewable ammonia could therefore provide an additional economic benefit beyond reducing dependence on imported fossil-based ammonia.

China has a large manufacturing base for electrolysers, solar equipment, batteries and other technologies needed by renewable hydrogen projects. This gives Chinese engineering and equipment companies an opportunity to participate in Morocco’s developing green hydrogen sector.

One major project involving Chinese participation is planned in southern Morocco through a partnership involving Energy China International Construction Group, Saudi interests and Moroccan renewable-energy developer Gaia Energy. The project is designed around annual green ammonia production of about 1.4 million tons, supported by approximately 2 GW of solar power and 4 GW of onshore wind capacity. The planned hydrogen output would provide the feedstock needed for ammonia production, with potential uses including Moroccan fertilizer manufacturing and exports.

Chinese companies are also moving into equipment manufacturing and technical development. Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Equipment has announced plans for a $30 million electrolyser manufacturing facility in Morocco, with construction expected to begin in 2027. The project would give Morocco access to local manufacturing capacity for equipment required to produce green hydrogen.

The company has also been involved in a 20 MW hydrogen production system in Morocco and in the development of a clean hydrogen laboratory with Moroccan partners. The laboratory includes an electrolyser, a fuel cell and solar equipment, providing a smaller-scale environment for testing hydrogen technologies.

Battery storage is another area where Chinese technology could contribute to Morocco’s renewable energy plans. OCP Green Energy energized a 25 MW/125 MWh lithium iron phosphate battery storage system at the Benguerir mine in September 2026. Battery systems of this type can help manage fluctuations in renewable electricity and provide greater flexibility for industrial consumers.

The connection between Chinese technology and Moroccan renewable energy could therefore extend well beyond the purchase of ammonia. It potentially covers electricity generation, storage, electrolysers, hydrogen production, ammonia synthesis and industrial applications.

Ports could also become part of this emerging system. Morocco’s existing port infrastructure, including Tanger Med and Jorf Lasfar, provides access to international markets, while Nador West Med is being developed with a major container and industrial role. As green ammonia production expands, ports could eventually handle exports of renewable ammonia as well as potential ammonia-based maritime fuels.

The shipping sector is becoming an additional source of demand for ammonia as international efforts to reduce maritime emissions increase. Ammonia can be used in specially designed marine engines and is being considered as a lower-carbon fuel when produced from renewable energy. This could create another potential market for Moroccan green ammonia beyond fertilizer manufacturing.

The immediate Chinese-Moroccan ammonia trade should therefore be seen against two different time horizons.

In the short term, Chinese supplies give Morocco another source of ammonia at a time when geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions and international fertilizer market volatility have complicated traditional supply chains. The May 2026 shipments demonstrated that Chinese producers can become an alternative supplier when market conditions change.

In the longer term, Morocco’s strategy is aimed at reducing the need for imported ammonia altogether. Domestic green ammonia production could give the fertilizer sector greater control over a key input while supporting the country’s renewable energy and hydrogen objectives.

The transition will require substantial investment in renewable generation, water infrastructure, electrolysers, storage, transmission networks and ammonia facilities. It will also depend on the cost of renewable electricity, access to financing, European carbon rules and the ability of large projects to reach commercial production.

For China, Morocco offers a growing market for renewable-energy equipment, industrial engineering and hydrogen technologies. For Morocco, Chinese participation could provide access to manufacturing capacity and project expertise while the country develops its own renewable ammonia supply.

The rise in Chinese ammonia shipments in 2026 is therefore part of a wider adjustment in Morocco’s fertilizer supply chain. What began as a response to disruptions in conventional ammonia supplies is occurring alongside a broader effort to build renewable energy and green hydrogen capacity. The direction of that transition will determine whether imported ammonia remains a central feature of Morocco’s fertilizer sector or gradually becomes a smaller component of a more domestically produced supply system.