Casablanca – Morocco is recording a sustained rise in electricity imports, particularly from Spain, amid growing domestic demand and fluctuations in local production, according to recent official data covering 2025 and the first months of 2026. The trend has reignited debate over the effectiveness of ongoing investments in renewable energy and the country’s broader trajectory toward energy sovereignty.

Electricity imports reached around 3.75 terawatt-hours in 2025, representing approximately 7.65% of national electricity demand, which stood at about 49.031 terawatt-hours. However, the upward trajectory has accelerated in 2026. During the first quarter alone, imports increased by 63.5%, while data for the beginning of the year indicate even sharper rises in imports from Spain, exceeding 80% in some monthly and early-year indicators.

Energy flows between Morocco and Spain continue to play a central role in balancing the national electricity system. The interconnection infrastructure, consisting of submarine cables across the Strait of Gibraltar with a total capacity of around 1,400 megawatts, allows Morocco to both import and export electricity depending on price signals and supply conditions. Annual electricity exchanges are estimated at roughly 5,000 gigawatt-hours, covering close to 17% of national electricity needs in certain periods.

Despite this flexibility, the reliance on imports has been increasing in parallel with a rise in domestic consumption. Net electricity demand grew by around 3% to 3.5% in early 2026, while total consumption increased by approximately 6.6% over the same period. This demand growth has placed additional pressure on the national grid, particularly during peak periods.

At the same time, local electricity production has shown signs of stagnation or mild decline. Official data indicate a contraction of around 0.8% in early 2026, following a broader decline of 1.7% recorded earlier in the year. The downturn has been attributed mainly to reduced output from private operators as well as lower production from the national electricity and water utility.

This imbalance between rising demand and relatively constrained domestic production has contributed to the growing reliance on imported electricity. Some projections suggest that if current trends continue, imports could reach as much as 6.81 terawatt-hours in 2026, potentially increasing their share of national demand to nearly 13.5%, compared with 7.65% in 2025.

The development comes despite continued expansion in renewable energy capacity and output. Electricity generation from renewable projects developed under Law 13.09 increased by approximately 27.4% in early 2026, while independent power producers recorded a significant surge of up to 186.6%. These gains reflect a gradual strengthening of clean energy contributions within the national mix.

However, the scale of new capacity additions remains a point of concern. In 2025, only about 204 megawatts of new renewable capacity were reportedly brought into service, a figure seen by some analysts as insufficient to keep pace with rising electricity demand. As a result, increases in installed capacity do not necessarily translate into proportional increases in actual electricity generation measured in terawatt-hours.

This structural gap is further highlighted by the continued dominance of fossil fuels in Morocco’s electricity generation mix. In 2025, fossil fuels accounted for approximately 76% of electricity production, with coal alone generating around 27.4 terawatt-hours. Natural gas also maintained a growing role, reaching about 10.9% of the electricity mix, supported in part by increased imports routed through Spain following disruptions in regional gas supply routes in recent years.

At the same time, Morocco’s electricity exports have declined significantly, falling by around 35% compared with the previous year, reflecting tighter domestic supply conditions and increased internal consumption requirements.

The combination of rising imports, fluctuating domestic production, and strong demand growth has intensified discussion about the country’s energy transition strategy. While installed renewable capacity continues to expand and policy targets emphasize increasing the share of clean energy, system-level indicators suggest that generation output and grid integration challenges remain key constraints.

Energy analysts note that the situation reflects a broader structural issue rather than a short-term imbalance. Electricity imports have been on an upward trend for several years, suggesting that external sourcing is increasingly embedded in system operation rather than being used solely for occasional balancing.

Interconnection with European markets, particularly Spain and future planned links with Portugal, is expected to remain a key pillar of Morocco’s energy strategy. Authorities are also considering additional transmission capacity to improve cross-border exchanges and enhance supply security.

However, the central challenge remains aligning renewable expansion with actual electricity demand growth. While installed capacity measured in megawatts continues to increase, the pace of growth in real electricity output remains slower than consumption trends, maintaining pressure on imports.

In this context, the effectiveness of the energy transition is increasingly being assessed not only through installed capacity figures, but also through actual production in terawatt-hours and the degree to which it reduces reliance on external supply sources.