Casablanca – Morocco’s September 23 legislative elections have significantly changed the balance among the country’s four leading political parties, with the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) moving into first place, the National Rally of Independents (RNI) falling to second, Istiqlal remaining among the three largest parties, and the Justice and Development Party (PJD) making a substantial recovery after its sharp decline in 2021.

The results for the 395-seat House of Representatives put PAM first with 97 seats, followed by RNI with 66, Istiqlal with 65 and PJD with 54. Together, the four parties hold 282 seats, giving them a dominant presence in the new chamber and making their relationships central to the formation of the next government and the functioning of the legislature.

The figures also reveal how much the political balance has changed since the previous legislative elections. In 2021, RNI emerged as the largest party with 102 seats, followed by PAM with 87 and Istiqlal with 81. PJD, which had previously been one of Morocco’s largest political forces, fell sharply to 13 seats. Five years later, the order has changed substantially. PAM has moved from second to first, RNI has lost 36 seats, Istiqlal has lost 16, while PJD has gained 41.

PAM’s result represents a clear expansion of its parliamentary presence. The party increased its seats from 87 in 2021 to 97 in 2026, a gain of 10. Its representation now accounts for nearly one-quarter of the House. More importantly, the increase has allowed PAM to overtake RNI, which had led the parliamentary field after the previous election.

The change is significant in relation to the political configuration that followed the 2021 vote. PAM, RNI and Istiqlal subsequently became partners in the governing coalition. In the new House, however, their relative weight has changed considerably. PAM now has 31 more seats than RNI and 32 more than Istiqlal, whereas RNI had been clearly ahead of both parties in 2021.

PAM’s 97 seats are still well below the 198 required for an absolute majority. The party therefore cannot form a majority government on its own, leaving coalition negotiations as an essential part of the post-election process. The result gives PAM the largest parliamentary group, but the composition of the next governing majority will depend on agreements with other political forces.

RNI experienced the largest decline among the three parties that formed the core of the previous governing coalition. The party won 102 seats in 2021 but secured 66 in 2026, a reduction of 36 seats. Its parliamentary representation has consequently fallen by more than one-third compared with five years ago.

The shift from first to second place is particularly visible when the two elections are compared directly. In 2021, RNI held a 15-seat advantage over PAM. In 2026, PAM has a 31-seat advantage over RNI. The difference between the two parties has therefore changed by 46 seats over the five-year period.

Despite the decline, RNI remains one of the largest forces in the House and retains a substantial parliamentary presence. Its 66 seats place it only one seat ahead of Istiqlal, creating a much closer relationship between the second- and third-largest parties than existed after the 2021 election.

Istiqlal also recorded a decline, moving from 81 seats in 2021 to 65 in 2026. The loss of 16 seats is smaller than RNI’s decline, but it has reduced Istiqlal’s representation at a time when the party remains part of the group of major political forces.

The position of Istiqlal relative to the other parties has changed considerably. Five years ago, it was 21 seats behind RNI. The gap is now only one seat. At the same time, its advantage over PJD has narrowed from 68 seats in 2021 to just 11 seats in 2026.

This change reflects the broader redistribution of parliamentary strength among the four leading parties. Istiqlal has remained within the top three, but PJD’s recovery has placed it much closer to the traditional leading parties than it was after the 2021 election.

PJD recorded the most substantial numerical increase of the four parties. After securing only 13 seats in 2021, it won 54 in 2026, adding 41 seats. Its parliamentary representation has therefore more than quadrupled.

The result marks a major change from PJD’s position five years earlier. In 2021, the party experienced a sharp fall in representation after having previously been one of the most prominent political forces in Morocco. Its 2026 performance brings it back into the group of the four largest parliamentary parties, although it remains behind PAM, RNI and Istiqlal.

The comparison between 2021 and 2026 becomes particularly revealing when the four parties are considered together. RNI, PAM and Istiqlal held 270 seats after the 2021 election. In 2026, those same three parties hold 228 seats. PJD, meanwhile, has increased its representation from 13 to 54. The four parties together held 283 seats in 2021 and now control 282.

This means that the main change is less about the disappearance of established political forces and more about the redistribution of seats among them. PAM gained 10 seats and PJD gained 41, while RNI lost 36 and Istiqlal lost 16. The combined gains and losses are almost equal, showing the extent to which parliamentary strength has shifted within this group.

The new distribution also changes the balance between parties that previously worked together in government. PAM, RNI and Istiqlal now have 228 seats between them, which is above the 198-seat threshold needed for a majority in the 395-member House. However, the presence of a numerical majority does not automatically determine the composition of the next government. Political negotiations and agreements between parties will determine which forces participate in the governing coalition.

The PJD’s return adds another significant element to this process. With 54 seats, the party is now considerably larger than it was in 2021 and has a parliamentary presence capable of influencing debates and alliances. Its recovery also means that the new House contains a much stronger opposition force than the party’s 13-seat result suggested after the previous election.

Turnout is another important element in understanding the election. Participation stood at about 38% in 2026, considerably below the roughly 50% recorded in 2021. Around 15.8 million voters were registered, with nearly 6 million taking part in the legislative vote.

The lower participation rate provides context for the changes in parliamentary representation, although seat totals alone cannot establish why individual voters changed their choices or why many registered voters did not participate. Registration data also cannot be used as a direct measure of turnout among specific age groups.

The four leading parties therefore enter the new legislative term from distinctly different positions. PAM has expanded its parliamentary representation and moved into first place. RNI remains a major political force but has lost the leading position it held after the 2021 election. Istiqlal has preserved its place among the three largest parties despite losing seats. PJD has made the strongest numerical recovery and returned to the upper tier of the parliamentary system.

The election consequently produces a House in which the principal political forces remain largely familiar, but their relative strength has changed significantly. The three parties that formed the previous governing coalition still command a parliamentary majority when their seats are combined, but their internal balance is different, while PJD has returned with a much larger parliamentary group.

The next stage will depend on how the parties respond to this new distribution of seats. PAM enters the process as the largest parliamentary force, while RNI and Istiqlal retain substantial representation and PJD returns with considerably greater weight. Their respective positions will shape coalition discussions, parliamentary alliances and the direction of political debate during the new legislative term.