Casablanca – As Morocco approaches the harvest stage of the current agricultural season, conditions appear markedly improved, with both water availability and feed supply showing signs of recovery after several difficult years marked by drought and supply pressures. Early indicators suggest that this combined improvement could have significant effects on irrigation-dependent farming systems as well as livestock production across the country.

One of the most notable developments is the strong rebound in national water reserves. Recent official data indicates that dam filling levels have risen to above 76% nationwide, compared to around 40% during the same period last year. This represents one of the highest storage levels recorded in recent years and reflects a substantial recovery in rainfall and inflow conditions across multiple basins.

The increase in stored water volume, now exceeding 13 billion cubic meters, is expected to stabilize irrigation schedules for the upcoming months. Several key agricultural regions, particularly those dependent on large-scale irrigation networks, are likely to benefit from improved water distribution reliability. This is particularly important for crop cycles that are highly sensitive to water stress, including cereals, vegetables, and fodder crops.

Water basin performance has also shown relatively balanced recovery patterns, with several regions recording filling rates above 90%. This widespread improvement reduces the risk of localized shortages that have previously affected agricultural output in certain areas. Major dams have also registered significant recovery compared to last year’s critically low levels, reinforcing expectations of a more stable irrigation season.

In parallel with improved hydrological conditions, the agricultural production outlook for the current season has also strengthened. Early projections point to a significant rebound in cereal output, with estimates suggesting that wheat production could exceed 90 million quintals. Such a level of output, if achieved, would mark a substantial improvement in domestic grain availability and contribute indirectly to the feed market by increasing the supply of straw, a key by-product used in livestock feeding.

This potential increase in straw availability is already influencing expectations within the livestock sector. Straw is a fundamental component in ruminant diets, particularly for cattle used in meat and dairy production, as well as sheep and goats. In recent years, shortages and high prices of straw have placed significant pressure on livestock farmers, forcing increased reliance on imports, including shipments from Brazil, to fill domestic gaps.

However, with the current season showing stronger harvest prospects, market participants are anticipating a gradual easing of prices. In previous months, straw prices reached elevated levels that significantly increased production costs for breeders. In some cases, a 15-kilogram bale was sold at prices ranging between $4.12 and $5.15, placing strain on farm profitability. More recently, improved supply conditions have already contributed to a noticeable decline, with prices reportedly falling closer to $2.06 per bale in certain areas.

If the anticipated harvest levels are confirmed, some projections suggest that prices could decline further, potentially approaching $1.03 per bale under conditions of strong supply and reduced import dependency. Such a shift would significantly ease operational costs for livestock producers and could improve margins in both meat and milk production chains.

The livestock sector is closely monitoring these developments, as feed costs remain one of the most important components of production expenses. Industry stakeholders note that improved access to affordable straw would help restore balance in a sector that has faced several years of disruption due to drought and rising input costs. At the same time, some producers caution that extremely low prices could temporarily affect incentives for storage and commercial supply management, particularly if producers delay sales in anticipation of better market conditions.

Beyond straw, broader feed dynamics are also expected to benefit from improved pasture conditions following seasonal rainfall. The availability of natural grazing areas may reduce pressure on purchased feed in certain regions, further supporting livestock operations. However, this effect is likely to vary geographically depending on rainfall distribution and local vegetation recovery.

The combination of higher water reserves, improved cereal production prospects, and expected stabilization in feed supply points toward a more favorable agricultural season compared to previous years. If these trends continue, they could contribute not only to stronger crop performance but also to a gradual recovery in livestock production systems, which have been under sustained pressure due to climate variability and input cost volatility.

While uncertainties remain regarding final yield outcomes and market adjustments, the current season is widely viewed as a turning point that could help restore greater stability across key segments of Morocco’s agricultural economy.