Casablanca – Morocco has entered 2026 with a noticeable improvement in its water situation, following a series of winter rainfalls that have boosted dam levels across several regions. Official data indicate that national water storage has reached nearly 48% of total capacity, a significant recovery after years of drought and water stress. While the rebound offers relief and strengthens short-term water security, authorities continue to warn that structural vulnerabilities persist, particularly in southern regions.

According to the Ministry of Equipment and Water, the national dam fill rate stood at 47.83% as of January 19, 2026. This corresponds to approximately 8.017 billion cubic meters of stored water, out of a total capacity of 16.762 billion cubic meters. These levels are markedly higher than those recorded at the same time last year and represent one of the strongest recoveries since Morocco entered a prolonged drought cycle that lasted seven consecutive years.

Northern basins lead the recovery

The improvement has been uneven across the country, with northern and northwestern basins benefiting the most from recent rainfall. The Sebou basin, in particular, has emerged as a key driver of the national rebound. With around 360 millimeters of rainfall recorded since December 2025 — a 32% increase compared to the same period a year earlier — the basin’s total stored volume now exceeds 6.64 billion cubic meters, corresponding to a fill rate of about 55%, up from roughly 40% in December.

At the heart of this recovery is the Al Wahda Dam, Morocco’s largest hydraulic structure and one of the largest in Africa. The dam has received nearly 600 million cubic meters of inflows in just a few weeks, bringing its stored volume above 2.069 billion cubic meters and raising its fill rate to 59.16%. This marks a strategic turnaround after months of low levels that had raised concerns about irrigation, drinking water supply, and energy production in downstream regions.

Other major dams in the Sebou basin have also recorded notable gains. The Idriss I Dam now holds close to 510 million cubic meters, with a fill rate of around 45%. Bouhouda is nearing 97%, Sahla stands at approximately 48%, and Asfalou at about 37%. The Bab Louta Dam has exceeded 99% capacity, ensuring drinking water supplies for the city of Taza for more than two years under current consumption patterns.

Similarly, the Loukkos basin in northern Morocco has registered some of the highest filling rates in the country, driven by heavy rainfall in December. Many dams in the northern regions have reached optimal levels, with some approaching full capacity. These structures are generally small to medium-sized, which partly explains their rapid filling. However, the intensity of rainfall has also raised concerns about localized flooding and excessive soil moisture, which could affect certain winter crops.

Groundwater recharge and broader impacts

The positive effects of recent rainfall are not limited to surface water. Groundwater tables have risen across several regions, signaling a broader hydrological recovery. In the Saïss plain, water tables have increased by nearly two meters, while the Gharb region has recorded a rise of about 3.4 meters. In the Fez–Taza corridor, groundwater levels have increased by approximately 1.8 meters, and in the Middle Atlas by around 1.2 meters. These gains are particularly significant in a country where overexploitation of aquifers has long compounded surface water shortages.

Beyond hydrology, the rebound has direct implications for agriculture, urban water supply, and energy production. Higher reservoir levels ease pressure on irrigation systems, improve reliability of drinking water supply for cities, and enhance hydropower generation capacity. For farmers in northern basins, the recovery provides short-term relief after years of restricted irrigation and reduced yields.

Ongoing disparities and structural vulnerabilities

Despite these positive developments, authorities emphasize that the national water situation remains fragile. The recovery is uneven, and several dams, particularly in southern and southeastern regions, have received limited rainfall and continue to operate at low levels. These areas remain structurally vulnerable to water stress, highlighting the persistent geographical imbalance in Morocco’s water resources.

The Ministry of Equipment and Water has reiterated the importance of water conservation and rational use, even during periods of apparent abundance. Officials stress that the current recovery should not lead to complacency, given the long-term challenges posed by climate variability, rising demand, and population growth.

Toward a more resilient water strategy

Recent improvements have reinforced the relevance of Morocco’s long-term investments in hydraulic infrastructure. Decades of dam construction, inter-basin transfer systems, and basin management frameworks have enabled the country to capture and store rainfall that might otherwise have been lost. These systems have transformed episodic rainfall into a strategic national reserve, strengthening short-term resilience.

At the same time, Morocco has accelerated diversification of its water sources. Desalination plants, wastewater reuse, and modern irrigation technologies are increasingly integrated into national water policy. These measures do not replace natural precipitation but reduce dependence on it and provide additional buffers against future droughts.

Inter-basin transfer projects, often described as “water highways,” also play a growing role. By enabling the redistribution of water from surplus to deficit regions, these systems aim to reduce regional inequalities and enhance national solidarity in water access.

Short-term relief, long-term challenge

The winter rains of 2025–2026 have provided Morocco with a strategic pause after years of drought. Fuller dams, rising aquifers, and improved basin indicators have strengthened short-term water security and restored a degree of confidence across key sectors. However, the recovery remains partial and uneven, and long-term risks linked to climate change and structural water scarcity persist.

Authorities and experts agree that the current rebound should be used as an opportunity to consolidate reforms, strengthen governance, and promote more efficient and equitable water use. In this context, the challenge is no longer limited to managing scarcity, but to transforming periods of abundance into lasting resilience.

If recent gains are effectively leveraged, this phase may be remembered not only as a period of hydrological recovery, but also as a turning point in Morocco’s efforts to secure a more stable and sustainable water future.