Casablanca – Morocco is rapidly emerging as a dominant force in the worldwide phosphate market, steadily replacing longstanding players like China and Russia in European phosphate imports. Fueled by the robust activities of the OCP Group, the country’s phosphate industry is demonstrating immense potential to meet the surging global demand for this crucial resource.

In the initial quarter of 2024, there was a notable 10% surge in DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices compared to the previous quarter, although they remained 3% lower than the preceding year, as highlighted in the latest report from the World Bank titled “Global Commodity Price Decline Moderates”. This upward trajectory can be attributed to the fluctuating prices of natural gas, a vital ingredient in ammonia production, a key component of DAP.

Political factors have played a pivotal role in driving this recent surge in DAP prices, according to the report. Export restrictions imposed by China on phosphate and by Russia on ammonia have significantly disrupted global trade flows, thereby driving up prices in the international market.

This transformative shift in the commercial landscape is particularly evident in Europe, where conventional import patterns are undergoing a significant overhaul. While imports from China and Russia are gradually dwindling, other nations are swiftly emerging as primary alternatives. Morocco, for instance, is asserting its dominance in the phosphate sector, while Egypt is making strides in ammonia production. This shift underscores not only a strategic recalibration by European stakeholders in response to geopolitical and commercial pressures but also a growing acknowledgment of Morocco’s pivotal role in the global phosphate arena.

Morocco’s ascent in the global phosphate market is part of a broader narrative of economic expansion and export diversification. Data furnished by the Office des Changes underscores the rise of the phosphate and derivative sector, catapulting it to the forefront of the country’s export landscape in 2022. This sector witnessed an important growth of 43.9% compared to the previous year, with total exports amounting to 115.5 billion dirhams (approximately $11.90 billion). These exports played a pivotal role, contributing a third (35.5%) to the overall increase in the country’s export earnings.

This impressive achievement highlights Morocco’s capability to strengthen its position as a major participant in the global trade of agricultural inputs and related products. The OCP Group, with its full value chain covering everything from extracting phosphate rock to making phosphate-based products with added value, is already acknowledged as a foundation of this vital sector.

Looking forward, the projected trajectory of DAP prices in the near future is contingent upon various anticipated factors, as elucidated by the World Bank. While a notable recovery of approximately 9% is anticipated for 2024 following a significant decline in the preceding year, subsequent periods may witness a reversal of this trend as supplies stabilize and new production capacities are introduced, potentially resulting in a decline in prices.