Casablanca – Morocco is entering the 2026-2027 agricultural season with significantly improved water reserves, raising expectations for cereal production, irrigated farming and livestock recovery after several years of drought. Higher dam levels and more favorable rainfall and snowfall conditions have created a better starting point for farmers preparing their land for ploughing and sowing. However, the extent of the recovery will depend on the distribution of rainfall over the coming months, the availability of agricultural inputs and farmers’ ability to finance production.

As of October 1, 2026, Morocco’s dams were filled to 65.51% of their total capacity, compared with 32.68% on the same date a year earlier. The volume of stored water reached approximately 11.15 billion cubic meters, up from 5.45 billion cubic meters in early October 2025. This represents an increase of more than 104% and marks a substantial improvement in the country’s water reserves after successive dry seasons.

The upward trend continued into October. On October 10, the national filling rate stood at 65.51%, compared with 65.34% the previous day, following an additional inflow of approximately 28.98 million cubic meters. These figures reflect the effects of recent rainfall and snowfall, which have replenished reservoirs and improved water availability ahead of the new farming campaign.

The agricultural season is expected to begin officially in the second half of October. The improved hydrological situation offers farmers more favorable conditions for preparing fields, purchasing seeds and planning sowing operations. It may also support irrigation in areas supplied by dams, although water availability will continue to vary considerably between regions.

Cereal cultivation could expand beyond five million hectares

The improvement in water reserves has strengthened expectations that the area planted with cereals and pulses could increase during the 2026-2027 season. Estimates from agricultural professionals suggest that the cultivated area could exceed five million hectares, compared with approximately 3.9 million hectares during the previous campaign. If achieved, this would represent an increase of around 28%.

The projected expansion reflects farmers’ willingness to cultivate more land following the improvement in rainfall conditions and reservoir levels. Cereals remain central to Morocco’s agricultural production because they contribute to domestic food supplies and provide income for a large number of rural households. Wheat and barley cultivation also supports livestock farming, as crop residues can be used for animal feed.

The previous agricultural season was estimated to have produced around 90 million quintals of cereals, equivalent to approximately nine million tonnes. This figure provided a more favorable starting point than some of the harvests recorded during the prolonged drought, although the final results of the campaign and the performance of individual crops vary according to regional conditions.

The prospects for the new season will depend on several factors beyond the amount of water stored in dams. Rainfall must arrive at suitable intervals during sowing, germination and crop development. Soil conditions, seed quality, fertilizer use and the timing of farming operations will also influence yields.

An increase in cultivated land does not automatically translate into a proportionate rise in production. If rainfall becomes irregular or stops during key stages of plant growth, yields could remain below expectations even when more hectares have been sown. Conversely, well-distributed precipitation combined with suitable farming practices could improve productivity and increase the volume of cereals available on the domestic market.

Water recovery remains uneven across agricultural regions

Despite the national improvement, water conditions differ between river basins. The Sebou basin recorded a filling rate of 77.77% in early October, while the Al Wahda Dam reached 81.26%. These levels provide a stronger water reserve in parts of the country served by these resources.

Other areas continue to face greater constraints. The Oum Er-Rbia basin recorded a filling rate of 59.5% in late August, while the Souss-Massa basin stood at 48.6%. Although these figures may have changed following subsequent rainfall, they illustrate the differences in water availability across Morocco.

Such disparities matter because the agricultural effects of improved national reserves depend on where the water is stored and whether it can be delivered to farms. Reservoirs in one basin cannot automatically resolve shortages in another, particularly where irrigation networks are limited or water transfers are technically and economically constrained.

The amount of water stored in dams must also be distinguished from the quantity that ultimately reaches agricultural plots. Distribution infrastructure, water allocation decisions, irrigation requirements and competing demands from households and economic activities all influence the supply available to farmers.

Where dam-fed irrigation is accessible, higher reserves could allow farmers to plan watering schedules with greater certainty and reduce their reliance on groundwater. This could ease pressure on aquifers that have been depleted by years of drought and intensive pumping. However, the benefits will depend on the management of available supplies and the ability of irrigation systems to deliver water efficiently.

Seeds, fertilizers and financing will influence the outcome

The availability and cost of agricultural inputs will also shape the performance of the 2026-2027 campaign. Preparations include the expected supply of more than one million quintals of selected seeds and over 600,000 tonnes of phosphate fertilizers.

Selected seeds can help improve crop establishment and productivity, particularly when farmers choose varieties adapted to local climate conditions and sow at the appropriate time. Fertilizers are equally important for crop development, but their effectiveness depends on soil conditions, moisture levels and appropriate application.

The cost of these inputs remains a concern for many farmers. Indicative prices for soft wheat and barley seeds have been estimated at around $41 per quintal, while durum wheat seeds have been priced at approximately $41 to $46 per quintal, based on an approximate conversion from dirhams. These expenses come on top of spending on fertilizers, fuel, machinery, labour and land preparation.

For small and medium-sized farms, the combined cost of production can limit the area they are able to cultivate, even when rainfall prospects improve. Some farmers may have to choose between investing in higher-quality inputs and reducing their immediate expenses, a decision that can affect yields later in the season.

Access to financing will therefore remain important. Affordable credit and the timely availability of agricultural supplies could help farmers take advantage of the improved water situation. Delays in purchasing seeds or preparing land could reduce the benefits of favorable weather, particularly if the most suitable sowing period is missed.

Rainfall will determine whether expectations translate into production

Morocco’s agricultural sector remains highly exposed to weather conditions, especially in areas where production relies primarily on rainfall rather than irrigation. Higher dam reserves provide a stronger buffer against drought, but they cannot replace regular precipitation for rain-fed crops.

The distribution of rainfall throughout autumn and winter will be particularly important. Adequate moisture during sowing and germination can support the establishment of cereal crops, while continued precipitation during subsequent growth stages helps determine yields. Long dry intervals, excessive rainfall or poorly timed precipitation can each create difficulties for farmers.

The coming months will also influence the extent to which cultivated areas expand. Farmers generally make planting decisions according to their assessment of soil moisture, expected rainfall, input prices and available financing. If conditions remain favorable, more land could be brought into production. If rainfall deteriorates, some farmers may limit sowing or face lower yields.

The improvement in dam reserves nevertheless gives water managers and agricultural authorities greater flexibility than they had during periods of severe shortage. It creates an opportunity to plan water allocations, support irrigation and prepare for a season in which agricultural output could recover further.

Livestock farmers could benefit from better pastures

The improved rainfall outlook could also benefit livestock farming, which has been affected by repeated droughts, declining pasture availability and high animal-feed costs. Better vegetation in grazing areas would provide farmers with more natural feed and could reduce their dependence on purchased fodder.

This would be particularly relevant for rural households that have faced higher expenses to maintain their herds during dry periods. Lower feed requirements could ease financial pressure, while improved pasture conditions could help farmers preserve livestock and gradually rebuild herd numbers.

However, recovery is likely to take time. The condition of grazing land, the availability of water points and the duration of favorable weather will determine how much natural feed becomes available. Livestock farmers will also continue to face costs associated with animal health, transport and supplementary feed.

The improvement in water reserves offers Morocco a more favorable starting point for the 2026-2027 agricultural season than it had a year earlier. The prospect of expanding cereal and pulse cultivation, improving irrigation conditions and restoring pastures could support farm production and rural incomes after several difficult seasons.

The final outcome will depend on whether the recovery in dams is accompanied by regular rainfall, effective water distribution and affordable access to agricultural inputs. The coming months will determine whether the stronger water reserves translate into a larger harvest, improved livestock conditions and more reliable domestic agricultural supplies.