Casablanca – Morocco’s real estate sector entered 2026 under clear signs of slowdown, with both property prices and transaction volumes declining across most segments of the market. Data published by Bank Al-Maghrib and the National Agency for Land Conservation, Cadastre and Cartography points to a broad-based deceleration affecting residential, land, and professional property categories, alongside pronounced contractions in major urban centers.

During the first quarter of 2026, the Real Estate Asset Price Index registered a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, indicating a modest but persistent downward adjustment in property values compared with the same period in 2025. The decline, although limited in magnitude, reflects a continued cooling trend after previous periods of stronger market activity.

The decrease in prices was spread across all segments. Residential property and land prices both fell by 0.6%, while properties intended for professional use recorded a marginal decline of 0.1%. This relatively small variation between categories suggests that the overall market adjustment is broad rather than concentrated in a specific segment, although housing and land appear slightly more affected than commercial assets.

More pronounced than price movements was the sharp decline in transaction activity. Overall real estate sales fell by 9.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, signaling weaker demand from both households and investors. The contraction was consistent across categories: residential transactions decreased by 10.7%, land sales dropped by 6.8%, and professional property transactions declined by 3.6%.

This slowdown in activity is widely interpreted as a sign of increased caution among market participants, with many buyers delaying decisions amid uncertainty regarding financing conditions, economic outlook, and expectations of future price movements. The divergence between relatively moderate price declines and a sharper drop in transactions suggests that the market is experiencing a demand-side slowdown rather than a supply-driven shock.

At the quarterly level, the cooling trend appears even more pronounced. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2025, the Real Estate Asset Price Index fell by 2.4%, reflecting a broader correction across all categories. Residential and land prices each declined by 3%, while professional real estate values decreased by 0.8%. This quarterly contraction highlights a more immediate adjustment phase entering 2026, following what had been a more stable end to the previous year.

The slowdown in activity was also significantly stronger on a quarterly basis, with total transactions dropping by 40.2% compared with the previous quarter. Residential sales fell by 38.4%, land transactions declined by 45.9%, and professional property operations decreased by 40.2%. This steep quarterly contraction indicates a marked slowdown in market liquidity, suggesting that many transactions were either postponed or did not materialize during the period.

Geographically, the slowdown was evident across Morocco’s major urban centers, although with varying intensity. Rabat recorded the steepest decline in property prices at 4.7%, followed by Tangier at 3.9%, Casablanca at 2.7%, and Marrakech at 1.5%. These differences reflect localized market dynamics, with some cities experiencing stronger price corrections than others.

However, the most significant contractions were observed in transaction volumes across these same cities. Rabat saw sales plunge by 55.4%, while Marrakech recorded a 53.3% drop. Casablanca experienced a decline of 37.8%, and Tangier saw transactions fall by 36.4%. These figures underline a widespread reduction in market activity in Morocco’s largest urban real estate hubs, with Rabat and Marrakech showing particularly sharp declines.

Taken together, the data suggests that Morocco’s real estate market is undergoing a phase of adjustment characterized by softer prices and a significantly sharper decline in demand. While price reductions remain relatively limited on both annual and quarterly bases, the contraction in transactions points to a more substantial slowdown in market dynamics.

Analysts often interpret such conditions as a transitional phase rather than a structural collapse, particularly when price declines remain modest. Instead, the current environment appears to reflect a market in wait-and-see mode, where buyers are delaying purchases in anticipation of more favorable conditions, while sellers adjust expectations gradually.

Several factors may be contributing to this cautious environment, including tighter financing conditions, evolving interest rate dynamics, and broader economic uncertainty affecting household purchasing power and investment decisions. In parallel, expectations of further price adjustments may also be influencing buyer behavior, particularly in segments such as residential housing and land.

Despite the slowdown, the market does not show signs of systemic stress, as price declines remain contained and distributed across all segments rather than concentrated in distressed categories. However, the sharp contraction in transaction volumes suggests that market momentum has weakened significantly compared with previous periods.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of Morocco’s real estate sector will likely depend on the evolution of credit conditions, consumer confidence, and broader macroeconomic performance. A stabilization in financing costs or an improvement in demand conditions could support a gradual recovery in transactions. Conversely, continued caution among buyers could extend the current slowdown into subsequent quarters.

For now, the data confirms that the Moroccan real estate market has entered 2026 in a softer phase, marked by moderate price declines and a notable retreat in transaction activity across both residential and commercial segments.