Casablanca – Morocco’s economic outlook for 2026 points to continued strong growth, supported by resilient domestic demand, a recovery in agriculture, and sustained investment in infrastructure. However, international uncertainties, particularly geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility, continue to pose risks to the country’s economic trajectory.

Recent projections from both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Bank Al-Maghrib highlight broadly positive expectations, although with some differences in growth estimates and underlying assumptions.

The IMF forecasts Morocco’s economy to grow by 4.4% in 2026, with growth expected to rise slightly to 4.5% in 2027 before stabilizing around 4% over the medium term. These projections are based on the assumption of normalized agricultural output and a stronger contribution from the private sector alongside ongoing public investment.

In contrast, Bank Al-Maghrib anticipates a more robust expansion of 5.6% in 2026, reflecting a stronger rebound in agricultural production and continued dynamism in non-agricultural sectors. The central bank expects favorable weather conditions to support a cereal harvest of approximately 82 million quintals, which could drive a 14.4% increase in agricultural value added.

Despite the difference in forecasts, both institutions agree that Morocco’s growth will be underpinned by a combination of public infrastructure spending and increasing private sector participation. Major projects in transport, energy, and industrial development continue to play a central role in supporting economic activity.

Agriculture and investment as key growth drivers

Agriculture remains a critical component of Morocco’s economic performance, particularly after a strong rebound in 2025, when overall growth reached close to 4.9%. Improved rainfall and favorable climate conditions are expected to further boost output in 2026, reinforcing rural incomes and domestic consumption.

At the same time, non-agricultural sectors—including industry, services, and construction—are showing resilience. Investment in infrastructure continues to stimulate activity, while export-oriented industries such as automotive manufacturing and phosphate production are expected to maintain positive momentum.

Tourism revenues and remittances from Moroccans living abroad are also projected to remain strong, contributing to external balances and foreign exchange inflows.

Inflation and external balances under pressure

Inflation is expected to remain relatively contained, although slightly volatile in the short term. The IMF anticipates a temporary increase in inflation in 2026 due to higher energy prices, before stabilizing at around 2% in the medium term. Meanwhile, the central bank projects inflation at around 0.8% in 2026, rising modestly to 1.4% in 2027, supported by easing fuel prices and improved food supply.

On the external front, both institutions warn of a likely widening of the current account deficit. Rising global commodity prices, particularly for energy, are expected to increase import costs. Bank Al-Maghrib estimates that the deficit could widen from 2.3% of GDP in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, before narrowing again in 2027.

Nevertheless, Morocco’s foreign exchange reserves remain at comfortable levels and are expected to strengthen further. Projections indicate that reserves could reach around $51.3 billion, equivalent to nearly six months of imports, providing a solid buffer against external shocks.

Public finances and structural challenges

Fiscal projections indicate a gradual improvement in public finances. The IMF expects Morocco to continue reducing its public debt ratio, which could fall to around 60.5% of GDP by 2031. This trajectory depends on sustained revenue performance and careful management of public spending.

However, structural challenges persist, particularly in the labor market. Despite relatively strong growth, unemployment remains elevated, highlighting the difficulty of translating economic expansion into sufficient job creation.

Both the IMF and the central bank emphasize the importance of strengthening the private sector’s role in the economy, improving the business environment, and ensuring fair competition between public and private actors. Labor market reforms and investment in human capital are also seen as essential to achieving more inclusive growth.

Risks linked to global environment

The outlook remains subject to significant downside risks. Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, continue to affect global trade, energy prices, and supply chains. These factors could weaken external demand and increase economic uncertainty.

Domestically, one of the main risks lies in the effectiveness of public investment. Lower-than-expected returns on infrastructure spending could limit its impact on growth and employment.

Resilience amid uncertainty

Despite these challenges, Morocco’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience. Strong macroeconomic management, diversified growth drivers, and ongoing reforms provide a solid foundation for sustained expansion.

International institutions have acknowledged this resilience while calling for continued prudent policies and accelerated structural reforms. Enhancing productivity, boosting private investment, and improving job creation will be key to ensuring that growth remains both strong and inclusive in the years ahead.