Casablanca – The global silver market is experiencing a structural imbalance characterized by persistent supply deficits, declining inventories, and strong price volatility. Within this environment, Morocco is emerging as an increasingly important contributor to global supply, mainly driven by the expansion of the Zgounder mine in the Anti-Atlas region.

According to the World Silver Survey 2026, published by the Silver Institute in partnership with Metals Focus, global silver mine production increased by around 3% in 2025, reaching 846.6 million ounces, compared to 823.6 million ounces in 2024. This growth follows several years of fluctuations and reflects uneven performance across major producing regions.

Latin America, particularly Chile and Peru, remained a key driver of global output. However, Africa recorded the strongest percentage increase in production during 2025, with Morocco identified as the main source of this growth. The expansion of the Zgounder mine, operated by the Canadian company Aya Gold & Silver, played a central role in this development. Located in the Anti-Atlas mountain range, the project has become one of the most closely monitored mining assets in the region.

Global silver production remains concentrated in a limited group of countries, including Mexico, China, Peru, Bolivia, Poland, and Russia. The emergence of Morocco as an additional source of supply introduces a new dynamic into a market where incremental production gains are increasingly difficult to achieve.

Forecasts for 2026 indicate a slight decline in global output to 844.1 million ounces. Despite this expected contraction, Morocco is projected to continue increasing production, supported by the ongoing expansion and optimization of the Zgounder operation. This positions the country among the few jurisdictions expected to contribute additional supply in the near term.

The market continues to face a persistent structural deficit. The sector recorded its fifth consecutive annual shortfall in 2025, estimated at 40.3 million ounces. Projections for 2026 suggest that the deficit will widen further to approximately 46.3 million ounces, reflecting a sustained gap between production and consumption.

At the same time, global silver inventories have been steadily declining. This reduction in stockpiles has tightened physical supply conditions and increased market sensitivity to disruptions. Lower inventory levels have also amplified price fluctuations, contributing to a more volatile trading environment.

Silver prices experienced a significant rally during this period. At the beginning of 2025, the metal traded below $29 per ounce. By December, prices had surged to around $84 per ounce. In January 2026, silver briefly reached a historic peak above $121 per ounce before retreating. On an annual average basis, prices increased by roughly 42%, reaching approximately $40.03 per ounce.

This price movement has been driven by multiple factors. Geopolitical tensions, uncertainty surrounding global trade, and expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy have reinforced silver’s role as a safe-haven asset. These macroeconomic conditions have contributed to increased investment demand.

Industrial consumption remains a key structural driver of silver demand. Even though total industrial usage declined by around 3% in 2025 to 657.4 million ounces, several high-growth sectors continue to rely heavily on the metal. These include solar energy systems, semiconductor manufacturing, artificial intelligence-related data infrastructure, electrical grids, batteries, and electric vehicles.

Demand linked to renewable energy expansion and digital transformation has helped sustain long-term consumption trends despite short-term fluctuations in certain industrial segments.

Morocco’s growing role in silver production comes at a time when global competition for critical minerals is intensifying. These resources are increasingly important for energy transition technologies and advanced industrial applications. As a result, many countries are seeking to diversify supply chains and secure access to strategic metals.

The expansion of the Zgounder mine highlights this shift by introducing additional production capacity outside traditional mining hubs. While still relatively modest compared to major global producers, Morocco’s contribution reflects a gradual redistribution of supply sources in a market where new large-scale projects remain limited.

Continued investment in mining infrastructure and resource development is expected to support Morocco’s position in the coming years. This development aligns with broader efforts to strengthen its role in global mining value chains and to participate more actively in markets linked to energy transition and advanced technologies.