Casablanca – Morocco is heading toward a significant recovery in its cereal production for the 2025–2026 agricultural season, with official forecasts placing output at around 90 million quintals. The projection, announced by the Minister of Agriculture, Maritime Fisheries, Rural Development, and Water and Forests, Ahmed El Bouari, during the International Agriculture Fair in Meknes (SIAM), reflects a notable rebound after several years of drought-related pressure on the sector.
The expected production level represents a sharp increase compared with the previous agricultural campaign, which stood at roughly 44 million quintals. If confirmed, this would mark one of the strongest cereal performances in recent years and signal a gradual recovery of Morocco’s rain-fed agriculture system.
Rainfall as the main driver of recovery
According to official explanations, the key factor behind this improvement is the return of favorable rainfall across most agricultural regions. The 2025–2026 season benefited from well-distributed precipitation, particularly between January and March 2026, which helped restore soil moisture and improve crop development conditions.
These rains also enabled a significant expansion of cereal cultivation areas, reaching approximately 3.9 million hectares. This expansion played a direct role in increasing production expectations, as cereals remain highly dependent on rainfall in Morocco’s production system.
In addition to rainfall, improved snow precipitation in mountainous areas contributed to replenishing water reserves, strengthening the overall hydrological situation after multiple years of drought stress.
Water reserves and irrigated agriculture recovery
One of the most important structural improvements this season has been the recovery of water resources. Dam reserves have reached around 13 billion cubic meters, corresponding to a filling rate of approximately 75–76%. This development is considered a key indicator for the agricultural outlook, particularly for irrigated farming systems.
The improved water availability is expected to support both spring and summer crops and enable a gradual recovery of irrigated agriculture, which had been under pressure in previous dry seasons. Authorities have also indicated plans to launch an ambitious irrigation program for the next agricultural campaign, aiming to reinforce long-term water resilience.
Broader agricultural performance beyond cereals
The recovery is not limited to cereal production. Fruit crops have also shown strong performance, particularly olives, citrus fruits, and dates. These sectors have benefited from improved climatic conditions and are expected to contribute positively to overall agricultural value added.
Preliminary estimates suggest that agricultural GDP could increase by around 15% compared with the previous year. This expected growth reflects both improved crop yields and a partial recovery of rural economic activity, which had been affected by successive drought cycles.
Structural importance of the livestock sector
Alongside crop production, livestock farming remains a central pillar of Morocco’s agricultural economy. The sector supports around 1.2 million rural households and contributes significantly to employment and income generation.
National livestock numbers are estimated at nearly 33 million head, including sheep, goats, cattle, and camels. This allows for an annual production of approximately 530,000 tons of red meat and nearly 2 billion liters of milk. The poultry sector also contributes substantially, with production of around 784,000 tons of white meat and about 6.5 billion eggs, fully meeting domestic demand.
Overall, livestock accounts for about 35% of agricultural GDP and generates roughly 135 million workdays annually, highlighting its role in stabilizing rural economies, especially during periods of climatic stress.
Economic implications of the agricultural rebound
The expected recovery in cereal production is likely to have several macroeconomic effects. First, it could reduce Morocco’s reliance on cereal imports, helping to ease pressure on the trade balance in a context where global grain markets remain volatile.
Second, improved domestic supply may contribute to stabilizing food prices, particularly for wheat-based products that are central to consumption patterns. This could have a direct impact on household purchasing power and inflation dynamics.
Third, stronger agricultural output is expected to support rural employment and incomes, especially in rain-fed farming regions where agriculture remains the main economic activity.
Finally, the rebound in agricultural GDP—projected at around 15%—would strengthen the sector’s contribution to national economic growth, reinforcing agriculture’s role as a stabilizing component of Morocco’s economy.
Outlook and remaining risks
Despite the positive outlook, authorities underline that the final outcome of the season remains dependent on weather conditions in the coming months. Rainfall distribution, temperature fluctuations, and potential late-season climate shocks could still affect yields.
Monitoring will continue throughout the growing season, with updated assessments of crop conditions and productivity indicators. The Ministry of Agriculture is expected to refine its projections as the season progresses, particularly ahead of harvest periods in spring and early summer 2026.
In parallel, ongoing structural reforms under national agricultural strategies aim to strengthen resilience against climate variability, improve irrigation efficiency, and enhance productivity across value chains.
The 2025–2026 agricultural season marks a turning point toward recovery, but also highlights the continued importance of water management and climate adaptation in securing Morocco’s long-term agricultural stability.
