Casablanca – Morocco’s avocado sector is heading into the 2026–2027 season with expectations of a sharp increase in production, as improved weather conditions and the maturation of recently planted orchards are expected to lift the national harvest to around 180,000 tonnes.

The projected output would mark a strong recovery from the previous season and could provide a significant boost to exports. Professional estimates indicate that between 125,000 and 130,000 tonnes of avocados could be shipped abroad, representing close to 70% of the expected harvest. The figures are forecasts rather than official national statistics, but they illustrate the scale of growth anticipated by producers and exporters.

The increase is being attributed to several factors, beginning with more favorable weather conditions during key stages of the agricultural cycle. Rainfall through March provided better water availability in many production areas, while moderate temperatures during flowering and fruit development helped reduce some of the stress experienced by orchards during the previous campaign.

Water availability has become an important factor for Morocco’s avocado producers. The crop requires regular irrigation, making production particularly sensitive to prolonged dry periods and restrictions on water resources. The improvement in rainfall this season has eased some of the pressure on farms, although differences remain between production zones.

The Gharb (west) region is expected to make a major contribution to the larger harvest. The area has experienced an expansion in avocado plantations, increasing its production capacity over recent years. At the same time, orchards established around three to four years ago are reaching productive age and are beginning to contribute more significantly to commercial volumes.

The arrival of these young plantations is an important factor behind the expected increase in supply. Unlike weather-related improvements, which can change from one season to another, the maturation of recently planted orchards represents a structural expansion in Morocco’s production base. As more trees reach full productivity, the sector could maintain higher output in future campaigns, provided water and climatic conditions remain suitable.

Weather conditions have nevertheless remained uneven. Some inland areas and locations farther from the Atlantic were affected by periods of intense summer heat, which caused losses in certain orchards. High temperatures can affect fruit development and increase irrigation requirements, potentially reducing the quantity of fruit that reaches export quality.

Despite these localized difficulties, the expected national harvest remains significantly higher. The projected 180,000 tonnes would give exporters access to a much larger volume than in the previous campaign and could strengthen Morocco’s position in European markets.

Fruit sizing is another factor likely to influence export performance during the new season. Estimates suggest that approximately 10% of production could consist of sizes 12 and 14, while sizes 16 and 18 could account for between 35% and 40%. Around 20% to 25% could fall into size 20, with the remaining volume made up of smaller fruit.

This distribution points to a substantial share of medium and larger fruit. Size is particularly important in export markets because buyers and retailers often have specific requirements depending on destination and sales channel. Exporters will therefore need to match available volumes with the preferences of individual markets while maintaining consistent quality.

Europe is expected to remain the main destination for Moroccan avocados. The European market has become central to the sector because of its proximity to Morocco and the established commercial links between producers, exporters and buyers. Shorter transport distances can help Moroccan suppliers compete with producers located farther from European consumers, although logistics remain an important cost for the sector.

Export activity is expected to intensify during November and December, when significant volumes could reach European markets. These months are likely to be important for determining how quickly the larger Moroccan crop can be absorbed.

The situation could become more complicated from January onward. Moroccan exporters are expected to face stronger competition from Israel and major Latin American producers, which could bring substantial volumes to international markets at the same time. Competition could affect prices, purchasing decisions and the margins available to Moroccan exporters.

A larger harvest does not necessarily mean that avocado prices will fall. International prices depend on several variables, including the total volume available from producing countries, consumer demand, fruit quality, size, transport costs and distribution margins. If demand remains strong, markets could absorb higher Moroccan supplies without a significant decline in prices.

However, simultaneous increases in supply from several producing regions could create greater pressure on prices. Moroccan exporters may therefore need to carefully manage shipment schedules and adjust their commercial strategies according to market conditions.

The strong export orientation of the sector means that international demand will remain particularly important. With as much as 125,000 to 130,000 tonnes potentially destined for foreign markets, around seven out of every ten tonnes produced could leave Morocco. This would make export performance a major determinant of returns for producers and exporters during the season.

The expansion of avocado production also has implications for agricultural employment and related activities. Larger harvests generate additional demand for farm labor, packaging, sorting, transport, storage and other services connected with the movement of fresh produce from orchards to export destinations.

At the same time, the expansion of plantations continues to raise questions about water management. Avocado cultivation depends heavily on irrigation, and increasing planted areas can place additional pressure on available water resources. Better rainfall during one season can reduce short-term stress, but it does not remove the longer-term need for efficient water use.

Producers are therefore facing the challenge of maintaining higher productivity while adapting to changing climatic conditions. Efficient irrigation, careful farm management and appropriate planning of planting areas are likely to remain important factors as the sector expands.

The experience of the 2026–2027 season could also provide an indication of how sustainable the recent expansion of Moroccan avocado cultivation will be. If young orchards continue entering production, national output could remain elevated in subsequent years. However, future growth will depend on water availability, weather conditions, international demand and the ability of exporters to compete with suppliers from other producing regions.

Logistics will also remain important because avocados are perishable and must be handled within strict quality requirements. Harvesting, sorting, cooling, packaging and transportation need to be coordinated so that fruit arrives at European destinations in marketable condition. Higher volumes could increase pressure on these operations, particularly during periods of concentrated exports.

For Moroccan producers, the new season therefore combines opportunities with a number of market and agricultural risks. The expected harvest of around 180,000 tonnes provides a larger supply base, while projected exports of up to 130,000 tonnes could strengthen the sector’s presence in international markets. Yet the final outcome will depend on how production develops through the remainder of the season and how global markets respond to the additional supply.

Morocco’s avocado sector enters the campaign with favorable production expectations, supported by improved rainfall, moderate temperatures and the growing contribution of younger orchards. The stronger harvest could translate into higher exports, particularly toward European markets, but producers will still have to manage water resources, heat-related risks, logistics and competition from other major suppliers.

The coming months will show whether the projected increase in production can be converted into sustained export growth and stable returns for the sector.