Casablanca – In a recent semi-annual report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) has issued revised forecasts for Morocco’s citrus exports for the 2023-2024 season. The report paints a challenging picture for the Moroccan citrus industry, as it faces significant headwinds from geopolitical, economic, and climatic factors.

While the USDA FAS report maintains its earlier production forecasts from December 2023, it has notably downgraded its export expectations. The revised outlook suggests that Moroccan citrus exports, particularly mandarins, are set to decrease from 453,000 metric tons (MT) in the previous season to 400,000 MT for 2023-2024. This represents a decline of approximately 12%, signaling a tough year ahead for Moroccan exporters.

Key challenges identified

The USDA FAS report identifies three primary challenges contributing to the decline in Moroccan citrus exports:

1. Cost inflation: The prices of inputs and logistical expenses have surged, placing additional strain on Moroccan citrus producers. This inflationary pressure has been a critical factor in the reduced competitiveness of Moroccan citrus on the global stage.

2. Restricted market access: The closure of the Suez Canal has severely complicated access to key markets in the Middle East and Asia. This logistical bottleneck has further hampered Morocco’s ability to maintain its previous export levels.

3. Increased competition: Morocco faces stiff competition from other citrus-producing nations, particularly Spain, Chile, and Turkey. Chile, in particular, has become a formidable competitor by introducing new late-season clementine varieties, extending its export season and exerting additional pressure on Moroccan exports to North America.

The report notes that Chile’s enhanced competitiveness has allowed it to capture a larger share of the North American market, a key destination for Moroccan citrus. Traditionally, Morocco enters the East Coast market of North America in November, but with Chile’s extended export period, Moroccan exporters are finding it increasingly difficult to secure their market position.

 Impact on other citrus exports

While mandarin exports are expected to see the most significant decline, the USDA FAS report also sheds light on other citrus products. Fresh orange exports from Morocco are projected to rise slightly from 39,000 tons last year to 40,000 tons in 2023-2024. However, this modest increase is tempered by strong competition from Egypt in the key markets of the European Union, Canada, the United States, and Russia.

Conversely, Moroccan orange juice exports are expected to decrease from 2,882 tons to 2,500 tons this year. Similarly, the export forecast for lemons and limes has been revised downward, from 7,000 tons last season to 4,000 tons for the current season. The report attributes these declines to the priority that Moroccan exporters are giving to the domestic market, where prices are currently more favorable.

Climatic and environmental challenges

In addition to economic and geopolitical factors, the USDA FAS report highlights the impact of adverse climatic conditions on Moroccan citrus production. The report notes that Morocco has experienced two consecutive seasons of low yields, driven by higher temperatures and severe drought. The particularly hot summer of 2023 negatively affected the flowering of citrus trees, while the ongoing drought exacerbated the situation, leading to reduced overall production.

During a recent visit to the northeastern region of Morocco, USDA FAS officials observed numerous abandoned orchards, a stark illustration of the growing difficulties faced by the sector in adapting to unfavorable climatic conditions. These observations underscore the broader challenges that the Moroccan citrus industry faces, as it grapples with the dual pressures of environmental change and global competition.

 Looking ahead

The USDA FAS report concludes by emphasizing the significant challenges that lie ahead for Morocco’s citrus industry. The combination of geopolitical, economic, and climatic constraints presents a formidable obstacle to both exports and local production. As these challenges continue to mount, the report suggests that the repercussions for Morocco’s citrus sector could be far-reaching, potentially reshaping the industry in the years to come.

As the global citrus market becomes increasingly competitive, Morocco’s ability to adapt to these challenges will be crucial in determining its future success in both domestic and international markets.