Casablanca – The Moroccan economy is expected to experience a growth rate of 3.8% in 2025, following an estimated 3% growth in 2024, according to the latest projections by the High Commission for Planning (HCP). This anticipated economic boost is attributed to a moderate recovery in the agricultural sector and sustained performance in non-agricultural activities.

Agriculture sector: A recovery in sight

The agricultural sector, which faced severe challenges due to a significant rainfall deficit in the previous season, is projected to rebound with a growth rate of 4.1% in 2025. This recovery is underpinned by relatively better climatic conditions and a resumption of precipitation at the beginning of the year, which is expected to benefit crop production. However, cereal production is anticipated to remain below average. Livestock activities, despite governmental support, continue to grapple with the aftermath of prolonged droughts and the need to rebuild the national herd.

Additionally, the maritime fishing sector is projected to grow by 6.5% in 2025, up from 3.8% in 2024. The overall primary sector is expected to improve by 4.2% in 2025, contributing positively to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 0.4 points, a significant turnaround from the negative contribution of 0.5 points in 2024.

Non-agricultural sector: Steady progress

Non-agricultural activities are forecasted to grow by 3.6% in 2025, slightly down from the 3.8% estimated for 2024. This growth is driven by continuous dynamism in the construction, mining, and industrial sectors, alongside strong performances in commerce, tourism, and transportation.

Industrial sector: Maintaining momentum

The industrial sector, which accounts for an average of 59% of secondary value added, is expected to expand by 3.7% in 2025, following a 4% increase in 2024. Key contributors include the chemical industries, which are projected to maintain their growth trajectory due to increased external demand, especially from India and Brazil. Transportation equipment industries are also expected to continue their robust performance, bolstered by foreign direct investments and advancements in automobile production, including electric batteries.

Conversely, the textile industry remains under pressure, with limited competitiveness in global markets and dependency on European demand. After a decline of 3% in 2024, it is expected to see a modest recovery of 1.7% in 2025. The agri-food industry, representing a significant portion of industrial value added, is forecasted to grow moderately by 1.3% in 2025.

Construction and mining sectors: Positive outlook

The construction sector is anticipated to grow by 3.8% in 2025, aided by a reduction in construction material costs and improved financing conditions. This sector will benefit from ongoing infrastructure projects and housing initiatives.

Mining, closely linked to the chemical industry, is expected to strengthen with a growth rate of 5.9% in 2025, supported by a rise in local demand for phosphate.

Tertiary sector: Consistent growth

The tertiary sector, primarily focused on domestic markets, is projected to grow by 3.5% in 2025. This growth will be driven by a 3.8% increase in services provided to businesses, a 2.2% rise in real estate activities, and a continued uptrend in commerce, growing at approximately 2.5% annually. The tourism sector is forecasted to improve by 7.4% in 2025, following an exceptional 23.5% rebound in 2023, thanks to international events and enhanced accessibility.

GDP and inflation outlook

Overall, Morocco’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2025, after a 3% increase in 2024. In value terms, GDP growth is projected to rise from 4.5% in 2024 to 5.9% in 2025. Inflation, as measured by the implicit GDP index, is anticipated to increase to 2.1% in 2025 from 1.5% in 2024.

The HCP’s forecast reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook for Morocco’s economy, highlighting the potential for recovery and growth across various sectors despite ongoing challenges.