Casablanca – The High Commission for Planning (HCP) has released its quarterly report revealing a generally positive outlook for both the non-financial market services (SMNF) sector and wholesale trade for the first quarter of 2025. While the non-financial services sector is set to experience growth, the wholesale trade sector is expected to maintain stability in key areas, based on business leaders’ projections.

Non-financial market services: Expected growth amid sector variations

In the non-financial market services sector, optimism prevails with 37% of business leaders expecting an increase in overall activity during Q1 2025, while just 8% forecast a decrease. Growth is anticipated in sectors such as land transport, pipeline transport, warehousing, and IT services, particularly in programming and consulting. However, less favorable projections come from the postal and courier services sector, along with architecture, engineering, and technical control activities, where declines in activity are expected.

Demand is expected to remain stable for the majority, with 68% of business leaders predicting no change, while 27% anticipate an increase. Employment levels are also expected to remain steady, with 48% of businesses predicting stability and 31% forecasting an increase in workforce numbers.

Reflecting on Q4 2024, sector performance was mixed: 49% of business leaders noted a decline in activity, while 35% reported an increase. These disparities were largely due to decreased activity in telecommunications, air transport, and real estate sectors, while growth was recorded in accommodation, land transport, and warehousing services. The capacity utilization rate (TUC) stood at 74%, with order books reported as normal by 79% of businesses. In terms of employment, 59% of leaders reported stability, while 22% observed a decline.

Investments focused on expansion and equipment renewal

Investments in the SMNF sector in 2024 were largely directed toward equipment replacement and expanding business activities, with 76% of business leaders prioritizing these areas. This investment focus signals an ongoing effort to strengthen and expand the sector’s capacity for growth in the coming year.

Wholesale trade: Stability in sales and employment

In the wholesale trade sector, business leaders project a stable market for Q1 2025. A significant 64% of wholesalers anticipate stable sales volumes, with 28% expecting an increase. Growth in specific areas such as the wholesale of household goods, food and beverages, and other industrial equipment is driving this stability. However, wholesalers in the agricultural sector, particularly in raw agricultural products and live animals, are preparing for a decrease in sales.

Regarding orders, 74% of wholesalers foresee them staying at a normal level. The wholesale sector is also predicted to experience employment stability, as 79% of business leaders expect no change in workforce numbers.

In Q4 2024, wholesale trade showed a mixed performance. While 36% of wholesalers reported an increase in local market sales, 53% observed stability. Key growth areas included sales of industrial equipment and agricultural products. Employment remained stable for 77% of business leaders, and merchandise stock levels were at a normal level for 86% of wholesalers. Selling prices also remained stable for 68%, though 27% reported a decline.

A balanced economic outlook

Overall, the HCP’s report indicates a balanced and cautiously optimistic economic outlook for both the non-financial market services and wholesale trade sectors in early 2025. While growth is expected in certain segments, particularly in transport, warehousing, and IT services, stability remains the overarching theme, especially in wholesale trade. Investments in infrastructure and equipment renewal suggest that businesses are preparing for a productive year ahead, with an emphasis on long-term sustainability and expansion.