Casablanca – As debates intensify over the financial viability of the Nigeria–Morocco Atlantic Gas Pipeline, new analysis highlights the project’s broader strategic importance for West Africa and the wider region. While recent assessments — including a critical report by North Africa Risk Consulting (NARCO) — question the long-term return on investment of this megaproject, multiple regional dynamics illustrate why Morocco and several West African countries continue to view the pipeline as a priority infrastructure with transformative potential.
A 5,600-km corridor designed to reshape regional energy flows
First proposed in 2016 and endorsed by ECOWAS in 2018, the pipeline is expected to extend from southern Nigeria along the Atlantic coast, crossing 11 West African states before reaching Morocco and branching toward Europe. Once completed, it would cover approximately 5,600 km, making it one of the longest offshore pipelines in the world.
Its planned capacity — around 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually — is intended to serve three functions:
- Supply gas to West African countries facing chronic electricity shortages
- Support industrial development and regional integration
- Provide a new route for Nigerian gas exports to Europe through Morocco’s interconnections with Spain and Portugal
This tri-dimensional function is at the heart of Moroccan officials’ argument that the pipeline is not a simple energy corridor but a platform for regional economic transformation.
NARCO’s critical assessment raises economic questions
NARCO’s recent analysis has reignited debate over the project’s financial feasibility. The firm describes the pipeline as an “economic black hole,” estimating that the final capex could rise from an initial $25 billion to as much as $38 billion due to offshore engineering complexities, environmental considerations, and deep-water routing.
Using comparative benchmarks such as the Medgaz pipeline, NARCO estimates the payback period at around 288 years, assuming current market prices and declining Nigerian gas output. The consultancy also questions whether enough gas would remain available for European export once domestic consumption and transit-country allocations are deducted. Of the planned 30 bcm per year, the report suggests that only 12 bcm may ultimately reach export markets.
Despite this pessimistic outlook, economic analyses alone do not capture the full scope of the project’s geopolitical, social, and strategic dimensions.
A strategic engine of regional integration and stability
For Morocco, Nigeria, and the countries along the route, the pipeline is envisioned as a vehicle for:
1. Accelerating industrialization in West Africa
Most of the states along the Atlantic corridor — including Benin, Togo, Ghana, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Senegal — face structural energy deficits that constrain economic growth. Access to stable gas supplies is expected to reduce electricity costs, stabilize grids, and facilitate the development of manufacturing zones and agricultural processing hubs.
2. Strengthening energy security
The project supports a gradual transition from reliance on expensive oil-fired power plants toward more sustainable gas-based systems. This is a key priority for several ECOWAS members, whose electricity shortages continue to hinder competitiveness and investment attraction.
3. Enhancing regional cooperation
Beyond its economic implications, the pipeline offers an incentive for the 11 transit countries to coordinate regulatory, environmental, and security frameworks. For ECOWAS, this represents one of the largest cross-border infrastructure projects in its history and a test case for deeper integration.
Morocco’s strategic interests: energy, diplomacy, and the Sahara
For Rabat, the pipeline serves several goals:
- Securing long-term gas supplies after the expiry of the Maghreb–Europe gas pipeline agreement with Algeria
- Positioning Morocco as a regional energy hub, reinforcing Dakhla’s emergence as a platform for Atlantic trade and future hydrogen initiatives
- Strengthening ties with African partners, consistent with Morocco’s diplomatic shift toward sub-Saharan Africa since 2014
- Presenting an alternative to the Algerian-backed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, which follows a more direct route across Niger and Algeria
Analysts note that while the Algerian route is technically shorter and less costly, Rabat has succeeded in framing its own project as a broader tool for regional stability, development, and cooperation — a narrative that resonates with European institutions exploring ways to diversify energy supplies.
A long-term strategic bet despite financial challenges
Even if the project faces high costs, lengthy timelines, and complex engineering requirements, many African policymakers argue that its benefits cannot be measured solely through profitability calculations. The pipeline embodies a long-term regional vision centered on energy access, industrial development, and geopolitical stability in a zone marked by instability and limited infrastructure.
While NARCO’s warning about financial sustainability underscores the magnitude of the challenge ahead, the Nigeria–Morocco Atlantic Gas Pipeline remains, for its supporters, a cornerstone of future regional cooperation and a symbol of Africa’s ambition to control its own energy architecture.
