Casablanca – Morocco’s real estate market is presenting a mixed picture in 2026, with weaker transaction activity and continued financial growth among some of the country’s largest listed property companies. While buyers are facing pressure from reduced purchasing power, financing costs and higher living expenses, major developers and property operators have continued to generate higher revenues through project deliveries, pre-sales and diversified property portfolios.

The contrast between market activity and corporate performance has become increasingly visible during the first half of the year. A slowdown in transactions does not appear to have affected all parts of the sector to the same degree, with established companies benefiting from projects launched in previous periods and from revenues generated across different segments of the property market.

Data from Bank Al-Maghrib and the National Agency for Land Conservation, Cadastre and Cartography pointed to weaker conditions in the first quarter of 2026. Residential property prices declined by 0.6% year on year, while residential transactions dropped by 10.7%. The quarterly comparison was considerably weaker, although seasonal factors and the timing of Ramadan contributed to part of the decline.

Major cities recorded particularly significant quarterly reductions in transactions. Rabat registered a decline of 55.4%, while Marrakech recorded a 53.3% drop. Transactions in Casablanca fell by 37.8%, and Tangier recorded a decline of 36.4%. Property prices also decreased across these major markets, although the reductions were much smaller than the decline in transaction volumes.

The difference between prices and transactions is significant because it suggests that the current weakness does not necessarily represent a broad collapse in property values. Buyers may be delaying purchases because of financing costs or affordability concerns, while sellers may be reluctant to substantially reduce prices. This can result in fewer completed transactions without an equivalent decline in headline property prices.

The performance of major listed companies provides another indication of the uneven nature of the market.

Addoha Group reported consolidated revenue of approximately $144.3 million during the first half of 2026, representing an increase of 8.6% compared with the same period of 2025. The company generated approximately $67 million in revenue during the second quarter alone, an increase of 13% year on year.

Addoha also reported that, under the previous accounting framework, its first-half 2026 revenue would have reached approximately $195.9 million. On that basis, revenue would have been 40.9% higher than the figure published under the current accounting treatment.

The results indicate that accounting changes can have a significant impact on how the financial performance of property developers is presented. The difference between the reported figure and the amount that would have been recognized under the previous framework does not necessarily reflect a corresponding change in underlying business activity.

Alliances Group also recorded revenue growth during the first half of 2026. Its consolidated turnover reached approximately $144.3 million, compared with about $137.1 million during the same period of 2025. This represented an increase of 6.4%.

The second quarter was particularly strong for the company. Revenue reached approximately $82.8 million between April and June, up 29.9% from the same quarter a year earlier and 30.6% compared with the first quarter of 2026.

Alliances also recorded a modest increase in pre-sales during the first six months of the year. The company marketed 3,267 units, compared with 3,191 units during the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 2.4%.

The improvement was more pronounced during the second quarter. Alliances recorded 1,639 pre-sales, an increase of 16.3% from the 1,409 units recorded during the second quarter of 2025. However, the second-quarter figure was 7.7% below the number of units sold during the first quarter of 2026.

The company’s order book also provides visibility over future activity, with a secured gross real estate value estimated at around $463.9 million. Such an order book can provide developers with a degree of protection when current market transactions weaken because a portion of future revenue is linked to projects and sales already secured.

Aradei Capital (ARD) recorded another strong performance during the first half of the year. Its consolidated revenue reached approximately $40.5 million, representing growth of 27.6% compared with the same period of 2025.

Part of this increase resulted from a non-recurring contribution of approximately $6.2 million generated by the delivery of 23 villas under the residential program associated with the Sela Plaza Dar Bouazza development.

Excluding property development activities, Aradei Capital generated approximately $34.4 million in revenue, an increase of 8% year on year. The performance was supported by organic growth in its asset portfolio and by the contribution of Sela Park Casablanca, which opened in November 2025.

Aradei Capital’s results also highlight the importance of diversification within Morocco’s property sector. Companies that combine residential development with commercial real estate, retail assets and other property-related activities may be less exposed to fluctuations in home purchases than developers whose revenues depend largely on residential transactions.

Financing conditions remain one of the main challenges facing the broader market. The average interest rate on real estate loans stood at 5.13% during the first quarter of 2026. Housing-loan rates were around 4.66%, while financing costs for property developers were approximately 5.37%.

Higher borrowing costs can affect the market in two ways. For households, mortgage financing becomes more expensive, reducing the amount that potential buyers can borrow or increasing monthly repayment costs. For developers, higher financing costs can raise the expense of purchasing land, constructing projects and carrying unsold inventory.

Although monetary conditions have become less restrictive compared with the period of elevated inflation in previous years, borrowing costs continue to influence purchasing decisions. A reduction in interest rates could improve affordability and encourage some potential buyers who have postponed their purchases to return to the market.

At the same time, the continued expansion of property-related credit indicates that financing has not disappeared from the market. The current slowdown therefore appears to be linked more to affordability, caution among buyers and the timing of transactions than to a complete withdrawal of bank financing.

The behavior of Moroccan households and the Moroccan diaspora is another factor that could influence demand. Transfers from Moroccans living abroad remain an important source of funds for the domestic economy and can contribute to housing investment. However, available financial resources do not necessarily translate immediately into property purchases when potential buyers expect prices or borrowing costs to change.

The current situation can therefore be described as a market operating at different speeds. Transaction data point to increased caution among buyers, particularly in major cities, while established companies continue to record revenue growth based on existing projects, deliveries and diversified assets.

The relatively small decline in property prices compared with the much larger decline in transactions may also suggest that sellers are choosing to wait rather than accept substantially lower prices. If this behavior continues, the market could experience a prolonged period of reduced transaction volumes without a major correction in property prices.

The second half of 2026 will provide a clearer indication of whether the slowdown is temporary or represents a longer adjustment. Lower financing costs, stronger household purchasing power and improved consumer confidence could help revive transactions. Conversely, if affordability remains constrained and buyers continue to delay purchases, activity could remain weak even while major companies continue to report positive financial results.

Morocco’s real estate sector therefore cannot be described simply as either being in crisis or experiencing broad expansion. The available figures indicate a more complex situation in which residential transactions are under pressure while some major listed companies continue to increase revenue.

For developers such as Addoha and Alliances, the performance of project pipelines, deliveries and pre-sales will remain important indicators of future activity. For property investment companies such as Aradei Capital, diversified commercial and rental assets can provide an additional source of revenue during periods when residential demand is weaker.

The gap between market-wide transaction figures and corporate financial results is likely to remain a defining feature of Morocco’s real estate market through the remainder of 2026. Whether the current slowdown develops into a longer correction or remains a period of limited transaction activity will depend largely on interest rates, household purchasing power, property prices and the broader pace of economic growth.