Casablanca – Morocco’s avocado sector has experienced a significant downturn during the 2025/2026 export season, with shipments falling to around 58,000 tons. This marks a sharp contrast with the previous campaign, which exceeded 100,000 tons and set a record for the industry. The latest figures highlight a difficult year shaped by adverse weather conditions, logistical disruptions, and increased international competition.

Avocados remain one of Morocco’s key agricultural export products, alongside citrus fruits, berries, and watermelons. In recent years, the sector has expanded rapidly, driven by growing demand in European markets and increasing investment in production. However, the current season has exposed structural vulnerabilities that have disrupted this upward trajectory.

According to data reported by specialized agricultural platforms and industry representatives, exports since the beginning of the campaign reached approximately 45,000 tons, with final volumes expected to close near 58,000 to 60,000 tons. This represents a decline of roughly 40% to 50% compared to the 2024/2025 season, when exports ranged between 100,000 and 120,000 tons.

The primary factor behind this drop has been unfavorable climatic conditions. Early in the season, intense heatwaves affected key growing regions, leading to substantial crop losses estimated at nearly half of the initial production forecasts. These extreme temperatures disrupted fruit development and significantly reduced the availability of export-quality produce.

As the season progressed, weather-related challenges continued. Strong winds and flooding in major production areas such as Loukkos and Gharb further damaged crops, compounding earlier losses. The combination of these events resulted in a sharp contraction in overall production and exportable volumes.

The reduction in supply had a direct impact on market dynamics. Limited availability of avocados kept prices at relatively high levels throughout the season. While higher prices might typically benefit producers, in this case they created additional challenges for exporters, who struggled to remain competitive in international markets, particularly in Europe.

At the same time, the European market experienced periods of oversupply from other producing countries. This increased competition placed additional pressure on Moroccan exporters, forcing them to navigate a complex environment where high domestic costs coincided with constrained demand conditions abroad. In some instances, producers chose to temporarily suspend harvesting operations to avoid financial losses.

Logistical disruptions further complicated the situation. Exporters faced repeated port closures due to adverse weather, particularly affecting operations at major hubs such as Tangier Med. In addition, shortages in transport capacity and prolonged shipping delays disrupted supply chains. These delays not only affected delivery schedules but also led to a deterioration in fruit quality, raising concerns about meeting international standards and maintaining commercial relationships.

Industry stakeholders have also pointed to internal tensions within the value chain. The scarcity of supply triggered disagreements between producers and exporters over pricing, reflecting the broader strain on the sector. These tensions, combined with external market pressures, contributed to an unusually challenging commercial campaign.

The impact of the downturn is expected to extend beyond production figures. Lower export volumes are likely to affect foreign currency revenues generated by the sector, which had exceeded $300 million during the previous record season. This decline underscores the economic importance of the avocado industry within Morocco’s broader agricultural export portfolio.

Despite the difficult outcome, professionals in the sector remain cautiously optimistic about the future. Many view the 2025/2026 campaign as an exceptional year rather than a long-term trend. Efforts are expected to focus on strengthening resilience through improved agricultural practices, better climate adaptation strategies, and enhanced logistics infrastructure.

Experts also emphasize the importance of diversifying export markets and improving supply chain management to reduce vulnerability to external shocks. Investments in cold storage, transport efficiency, and port operations could play a critical role in mitigating future disruptions.

Looking ahead, producers and exporters anticipate a gradual stabilization in export volumes in the coming seasons, provided that weather conditions improve. European markets are expected to remain the primary destination for Moroccan avocados, although increasing competition will require continued efforts to enhance quality and maintain competitiveness.

The 2025/2026 season represents a significant setback for Morocco’s avocado sector after years of rapid growth. The combination of climate-related losses and logistical constraints has highlighted key challenges facing the industry. However, with targeted reforms and favorable conditions, the sector may be able to recover and resume its growth trajectory in the years ahead.