Casablanca – Recent data from international organizations and national monitoring agencies indicate that Morocco’s agricultural sector is entering a gradual recovery phase, supported by improved water availability and more favorable climatic conditions at the start of the 2025/2026 agricultural season. While structural vulnerabilities linked to climate variability persist, the latest indicators point to better prospects for cereal production compared with the previous drought-affected year.

After several consecutive seasons marked by rainfall deficits and pressure on water resources, the beginning of the current agricultural cycle has been characterized by more regular precipitation and improved soil moisture in key production regions. These developments have helped stabilize planting operations and restored a degree of confidence among farmers, particularly in areas dependent on rain-fed cereal cultivation.

Improved climatic conditions and planting progress

According to recent assessments, conditions at the start of the 2025/2026 season have been broadly favorable for the sowing of winter cereals, including wheat and barley. Although planting was slightly delayed in late December 2025 due to the late arrival of rainfall, subsequent precipitation proved sufficient to support crop establishment and early growth.

Heavy rains recorded during December and January contributed to replenishing irrigation reservoirs in major agricultural basins, improving both surface and soil water reserves. This improvement in water availability has been critical for irrigated perimeters and has also benefited rain-fed zones by enhancing soil moisture levels and reducing stress on emerging crops.

Vegetation monitoring indicators further support this positive outlook. The Vegetation Health Index (VHI), a widely used tool for assessing crop condition and vegetation vigor, showed generally good conditions for cereal crops up to mid-January 2026. This suggests that crops are developing under relatively stable conditions, with limited signs of widespread stress at this stage of the season.

Weather forecasts for the coming months indicate continued rainfall close to seasonal averages through April, which, if confirmed, would further strengthen yield potential. However, localized deficits remain possible, particularly in certain eastern and central regions, underscoring the uneven distribution of rainfall and the ongoing exposure of Moroccan agriculture to spatial and temporal climate variability.

Water resources and irrigation outlook

The improvement in water resources has been one of the most significant drivers of the sector’s current recovery trajectory. Rising reservoir levels have enhanced irrigation capacity in key agricultural zones, allowing for more consistent water supply during critical crop development stages. This development is particularly important for cereals, as well as for other strategic crops that rely on controlled irrigation to ensure stable output.

In recent years, water scarcity has constrained agricultural productivity and reduced planted areas, particularly in drought-prone regions. The recent replenishment of reservoirs and improvement in groundwater recharge offer a degree of relief, although water management challenges remain, especially in the context of long-term climate change and growing demand from other sectors.

Import needs and food security balance

Despite the improving outlook for the current season, Morocco is expected to remain structurally dependent on cereal imports to meet domestic consumption needs. Estimates indicate that the country may import approximately 11 million tons of cereals during the 2025/2026 marketing year (July–June), around 20 percent above the long-term average.

This continued reliance on imports reflects both demographic pressures and the volatility of domestic production, which remains highly sensitive to rainfall patterns. While improved conditions in the current season may reduce some pressure, imports will remain a central pillar of Morocco’s food security strategy, particularly for soft wheat, which is a staple in national consumption patterns.

Government measures and price stability

To mitigate the impact of international market volatility and ensure stable domestic supply, authorities have extended support measures for cereal imports. Notably, the government has prolonged subsidies for wheat imports, initially scheduled to end in December 2025, until April 2026. This measure aims to maintain stable prices for soft wheat and secure adequate supplies of flour used in bread production.

Such interventions are part of a broader policy framework designed to protect consumers from sharp price fluctuations and to preserve social stability in a context of global food market uncertainty. The continuation of these measures highlights the authorities’ commitment to balancing producer interests, consumer purchasing power, and fiscal sustainability.

Food inflation trends

Food inflation remains an important indicator of pressure on household budgets and the broader cost of living. In 2025, food inflation recorded a slight annual increase of around 1 percent compared with the previous year. This modest rise was driven mainly by higher prices for fresh meat and fish.

At the same time, cereal prices declined, contributing to the containment of overall inflationary pressures. The relative stability of staple food prices has played a key role in limiting broader inflation, particularly in a context of global commodity price volatility and exchange rate fluctuations.

Impact of previous drought on production

The positive indicators for the current season contrast with the difficult outcomes of the 2025 harvest. Cereal production for the summer 2025 harvest was significantly affected by harsh climatic conditions, with total output estimated at approximately 4.5 million tons. This represented a decline of about 13 percent compared with the long-term average.

The sharp reduction in output was largely attributed to a severe rainfall deficit exceeding 60 percent between December 2024 and February 2025. Although rainfall improved in March and April 2025, the late timing and limited volume of precipitation were insufficient to compensate for earlier moisture shortages or to restore crop yields to normal levels.

While production in 2025 exceeded that of 2024, it remained below the historical average, highlighting the structural vulnerability of Moroccan agriculture to climatic shocks and reinforcing the importance of risk management strategies, irrigation investment, and climate-resilient farming practices.

Outlook for the 2025/2026 season

Looking ahead, the current agricultural season offers cautious optimism. Improved rainfall, better soil moisture, and stronger water reserves have created conditions more conducive to stable cereal production. If weather conditions remain favorable through the remainder of the growing cycle, Morocco could see a partial recovery in output, helping to ease pressure on import requirements and public finances.

However, the sector continues to face long-term challenges, including climate variability, water scarcity, and structural constraints affecting productivity and resilience. Addressing these challenges will require sustained investment in irrigation infrastructure, water efficiency, research and development, and the diversification of cropping systems.

In the short term, the positive indicators observed at the start of the 2025/2026 season strengthen hopes for improved agricultural performance and enhanced food security. In the medium to long term, they underscore the importance of building a more resilient agricultural system capable of withstanding increasingly frequent climatic shocks while supporting sustainable growth and rural livelihoods.