Casablanca – Morocco’s energy import bill has increased sharply in 2026 as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts international oil and gas markets, pushing up fuel prices and maritime transportation costs. The country is among the economies identified by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as particularly exposed to these disruptions because of its dependence on imported hydrocarbons. Foreign Exchange Office statistics show that Morocco spent approximately $11.5 billion on energy and lubricants during the first nine months of 2026, representing an annual increase of 37%.

The deterioration in international energy market conditions has added pressure to Morocco’s external accounts, with higher import prices translating into additional expenditure for the national economy. Between January and September, the country’s energy import bill increased by approximately $3.1 billion compared with the same period in 2025. This increase illustrates the financial exposure of an economy that relies substantially on external suppliers to meet its demand for petroleum products and other energy resources.

The pressure has developed against the backdrop of a broader regional crisis. In an assessment published in early November, the IEA examined the situation of Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia and Lebanon, identifying these four economies as particularly vulnerable to higher international energy costs. Their dependence on imported crude oil, refined petroleum products and natural gas has made them especially sensitive to disruptions affecting supply routes, commodity prices and shipping operations.

The agency estimated that the combined monthly expenditure of the four countries on energy imports reached $4.6 billion in March 2026, the first full month of the conflict, representing an increase of nearly 60% compared with January. By June, their combined monthly spending had climbed to $4.8 billion, approximately 66% above its level at the beginning of the year. These figures concern the four economies collectively and do not represent the individual increase recorded by Morocco.

The IEA identified petroleum products as the main contributor to the increase in import expenditure. Natural gas costs also rose considerably, with the combined import bill for this category doubling between January and June. Egypt’s purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) accounted for a substantial part of this increase, as its expenditure on fuel imports nearly doubled over the six-month period.

The situation reflects the different vulnerabilities of countries that depend on imported energy. While oil and gas producers can experience declining export revenues when transportation routes are disrupted, importing economies face the opposite pressure: they must spend more to secure supplies, even when the quantities purchased do not increase significantly.

A sharp increase in Morocco’s energy expenditure

The latest Moroccan trade figures provide a more detailed picture of the sources of this additional financial burden. During the first six months of 2026, imports of energy and lubricants amounted to approximately $7.1 billion, compared with around $5.5 billion during the corresponding period of 2025. The 28.9% increase represented an additional $1.6 billion in import expenditure.

The increase accelerated over the following months. By the end of September, the cumulative energy import bill had reached approximately $11.5 billion, compared with $8.4 billion a year earlier. The difference of $3.1 billion over nine months highlights the extent to which international price developments have affected Morocco’s import requirements.

Gasoil and fuel oil were the main contributors to this increase. Their combined import value reached approximately $6 billion during the first nine months of the year, up 51% from around $4 billion in the same period of 2025. The Foreign Exchange Office attributed this development primarily to a 47.5% increase in import prices, accompanied by a more moderate 2.4% rise in imported quantities.

This distinction is important because it indicates that the increase in Morocco’s energy expenditure was largely driven by higher international prices rather than a comparable expansion in the volume of fuel purchased. Even relatively stable import requirements can therefore generate substantial additional costs when global markets experience prolonged price increases.

Other categories also contributed to the deterioration. Imports of petroleum oils and lubricants increased by 54.2% to approximately $1.45 billion, while petroleum gasoline purchases rose by 45.4% to around $730 million.

Taken together, these developments demonstrate that the pressure extends across several categories of petroleum products rather than being concentrated in a single type of fuel. This creates additional difficulties for an economy that depends on imported hydrocarbons to supply transportation, industrial activities, agriculture and other sectors.

The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz

The international situation behind the increase in Morocco’s import bill is closely linked to disruptions in maritime energy transportation. The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, is one of the world’s most important routes for oil and natural gas shipments. Under normal conditions, approximately one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade and one-fifth of natural gas supplies pass through this strategic waterway.

Since February 2026, the conflict in the Middle East has repeatedly disrupted maritime traffic through the strait, creating uncertainty over the movement of energy shipments and increasing costs for international buyers.

The consequences extend beyond the countries directly involved in the conflict. Disruptions to major shipping routes can affect international supply availability, insurance premiums, freight charges and delivery schedules. Importing countries may consequently face higher costs even when their purchases originate from suppliers located outside the immediate conflict zone.

For Morocco, these developments are particularly relevant because energy imports represent a significant component of its external trade expenditure. Higher international prices increase the amount of foreign currency required to maintain supplies, placing additional pressure on the trade balance.

The IEA has described the current disruption as the largest in the history of global oil and gas markets. Its assessment also highlights the different economic consequences for exporting and importing countries. Producers experiencing difficulties shipping their resources can lose export revenues, while countries such as Morocco must absorb higher procurement costs to maintain domestic supply.

The impact is not limited to the direct cost of purchasing petroleum products. Higher fuel prices can also affect maritime transport, road freight and distribution expenses, eventually influencing the prices of goods and services throughout the economy.

Implications for public finances and household purchasing power

The increase in energy import costs presents Moroccan authorities with several economic challenges. One concerns the potential transmission of international price increases to domestic consumers and businesses.

Fuel prices influence a wide range of economic activities, including passenger transportation, agricultural production, food distribution, construction and manufacturing. When diesel and other petroleum products become more expensive, transport operators and companies face higher operating costs. These expenses can subsequently be reflected in the prices charged to consumers.

The agricultural sector is particularly exposed because fuel is required for machinery, irrigation equipment and the transportation of agricultural products. Higher energy costs can therefore add to production and distribution expenses, particularly when they coincide with increases in other agricultural inputs.

Businesses also face pressure on their operating margins, especially those that depend heavily on road transportation or energy-intensive production processes. Smaller companies may have limited capacity to absorb these additional expenses without adjusting their prices or reducing other expenditure.

For households, the impact can be felt through direct fuel purchases and indirect increases in the cost of transportation and essential goods. This creates a challenge for public authorities seeking to preserve purchasing power while maintaining budgetary discipline.

The IEA has warned that higher energy import expenditure reduces the financial flexibility of countries already facing budgetary constraints. Governments must balance the need to protect consumers against the additional cost of public intervention, particularly when international prices remain elevated for extended periods.

Morocco has already taken measures to limit the impact of fuel price increases on road transport operators. The government has introduced direct financial assistance for professional transport activities, seeking to reduce the immediate pressure on operators and limit the transmission of higher fuel costs to transportation services.

However, maintaining such support over a prolonged period can increase pressure on public expenditure. The effectiveness of these measures also depends on the duration of the international crisis and the evolution of domestic fuel prices.

The financial limitations of energy subsidies

The IEA’s assessment places Morocco’s situation within a broader regional debate over the cost and effectiveness of energy subsidies.

According to the agency, countries across the Middle East and North Africa have allocated an average of approximately $250 billion annually to fossil fuel subsidies over the past decade. In 2023 alone, electricity subsidies in the region exceeded $80 billion.

These figures illustrate the scale of public resources used to maintain affordable energy prices and protect consumers from fluctuations in international markets.

Although subsidies can provide short-term protection, they also expose government budgets to significant financial risks when global prices rise sharply. The longer international energy markets remain under pressure, the greater the potential cost of maintaining existing support arrangements.

The IEA therefore advocates a shift towards more targeted assistance. Under this approach, public support would focus primarily on households and economic activities most exposed to higher energy costs, rather than relying extensively on broad-based subsidies.

For Morocco, this issue is particularly relevant because the government must simultaneously address the cost of imported energy, maintain the competitiveness of businesses and preserve household purchasing power. Targeted measures could help limit the budgetary impact while ensuring that vulnerable consumers retain access to affordable energy.

Renewable energy and reduced dependence on imported fuels

Beyond immediate financial measures, the IEA considers the diversification of domestic energy sources an important element of long-term energy security.

Morocco has pursued renewable energy development through solar and wind projects, seeking to increase the contribution of domestic resources to electricity generation. The country has established programmes intended to expand renewable electricity capacity and reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels.

The national objective is to reach approximately 15 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030. Achieving this target would increase the availability of domestically generated electricity and reduce the exposure of the electricity system to international fuel price fluctuations.

The country already has several large-scale renewable energy projects, including solar installations and wind farms. However, expanding generation capacity must be accompanied by investments in electricity transmission networks, storage facilities and other infrastructure capable of integrating intermittent renewable production into the national grid.

The development of energy storage is particularly important because solar and wind generation depend on weather conditions and do not necessarily correspond to periods of peak electricity demand. Greater storage capacity and improved grid management would help increase the share of renewable electricity that can be used reliably.

The IEA also emphasizes the importance of strengthening electricity and gas interconnections between countries. Regional connections could facilitate energy exchanges during periods of supply disruption, allowing countries to benefit from available resources elsewhere and improve the resilience of their energy systems.

For Morocco, stronger electricity connections with neighbouring markets could complement domestic renewable generation and provide additional flexibility in managing electricity demand.

The development of renewable energy could also have economic implications beyond reducing fuel imports. It offers opportunities for investment, infrastructure development and the expansion of activities linked to electricity production and associated technologies.

Nevertheless, the transition requires substantial capital expenditure and long-term planning. Renewable energy cannot immediately eliminate the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products, particularly in road transportation and other activities where direct electrification remains limited.

Energy security becomes a broader economic priority

The increase in Morocco’s energy import bill in 2026 demonstrates how external geopolitical developments can affect the country’s trade position, public finances and domestic economic conditions.

The additional $3.1 billion spent on energy and lubricants during the first nine months of the year represents a considerable increase in external expenditure. The fact that higher prices, rather than significantly larger import volumes, account for most of the increase also highlights the country’s exposure to developments beyond its control.

The IEA’s assessment suggests that reducing this vulnerability requires more than responding to individual price increases. It involves diversifying energy supplies, expanding domestic electricity production, strengthening regional connections and improving the efficiency of public support mechanisms.

For Morocco, the challenge is to manage immediate supply and affordability concerns while continuing to invest in alternatives that can reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels over time. The evolution of the conflict in the Middle East and the stability of international maritime transportation will remain important factors influencing the country’s energy expenditure in the coming months.

The 2026 figures therefore underline the economic cost of energy dependence and the importance of accelerating efforts to strengthen domestic production capacity. While renewable energy development offers a means of reducing exposure to international markets, the transition will require sustained investment, infrastructure improvements and policies capable of addressing both short-term financial pressures and longer-term supply security.