Casablanca – More than a decade after the suspension of operations at Morocco’s only oil refinery, SAMIR, a new study has reignited debate over the economic consequences of the country’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products.

According to a recent analysis published by investment and research firm Vivae Capital, the cumulative cost associated with the absence of domestic oil refining since 2015 has reached approximately $20.3 billion. The estimate combines higher energy-related costs, public spending on fuel subsidies, and the loss of industrial value that could have been generated through local refining activities.

The findings come as Morocco continues to strengthen its energy infrastructure, expand renewable energy projects, and seek greater resilience against fluctuations in global energy markets. The study argues that the SAMIR case remains a significant component of the broader discussion surrounding energy security and industrial competitiveness.

A cost measured across several areas

The report estimates that Morocco has incurred around $11.8 billion in energy-related costs linked to its reliance on imported petroleum products since the refinery ceased operations.

In addition, public spending associated with petroleum-related subsidies is estimated at nearly $3 billion over the same period. Researchers also calculate that approximately $5.6 billion in industrial value was lost because crude oil was no longer refined domestically, forcing the country to import finished fuels instead.

Combined, these elements produce an estimated total economic impact of roughly $20.3 billion between 2015 and 2025.

According to the study, these figures represent only the measurable financial costs. Other consequences, including employment losses, reduced industrial activity, and the deterioration of strategic infrastructure, are more difficult to quantify but remain economically significant.

Growing dependence on imported fuels

Since refining operations stopped, Morocco has relied almost entirely on imported refined petroleum products to satisfy domestic demand.

Official trade data show that the country’s energy import bill reached approximately $11.8 billion in 2024, highlighting the continued importance of energy imports within Morocco’s external trade balance.

The study notes that this figure covers a broad range of energy products, including refined fuels, liquefied petroleum gas, liquefied natural gas, and crude oil destined for processing abroad. While the energy bill itself cannot be directly attributed to the refinery’s closure, researchers argue that it illustrates the scale of Morocco’s dependence on external suppliers.

This dependence has become increasingly important in recent years as international energy markets have experienced major disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions, supply chain challenges, and fluctuations in crude oil prices.

Lost industrial value and refining margins

One of the study’s key conclusions concerns the industrial value that could have been retained within the Moroccan economy if refining activities had continued.

Researchers estimate that Morocco consumed between 10.5 million and 12 million tonnes of refined petroleum products annually between 2015 and 2025. Over the entire period, this amounted to roughly 860 million barrels of fuel products.

Using average refining margins observed in the Mediterranean market, the report concludes that substantial revenues associated with refining were effectively generated outside Morocco.

Average refining margins during the period are estimated at approximately $6.5 per barrel, although they fluctuated significantly. Margins remained relatively moderate before the COVID-19 pandemic, weakened sharply during 2020 and 2021, and then surged in 2022 amid global energy shortages and market disruptions.

Based on these market conditions, the study estimates that Morocco lost between $4.3 billion and $7.2 billion in refining margins over the decade, with a midpoint estimate of approximately $5.6 billion.

Financial legacy of the refinery’s closure

The report also revisits the financial situation surrounding SAMIR’s shutdown.

When operations ceased in August 2015, the company carried debts exceeding $4.1 billion, before entering judicial liquidation the following year. The liabilities were owed to a range of stakeholders, including public institutions, tax authorities, banks, suppliers, and former employees.

Although the company’s financial difficulties initially appeared to be a corporate issue, the study argues that the closure ultimately had broader implications for national energy policy and industrial development.

The report suggests that the disappearance of domestic refining capacity transformed Morocco from a country capable of processing crude oil into one almost entirely dependent on imported finished products.

Strategic assets remain unused

Another major aspect highlighted in the study is the continued inactivity of SAMIR’s industrial assets.

A judicial assessment conducted after the refinery’s closure valued its assets at approximately $2.2 billion. These include refining facilities capable of processing up to 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, as well as extensive storage infrastructure located in Mohammedia and Sidi Kacem.

The storage facilities alone have a combined capacity of nearly 2 million cubic meters, representing a substantial portion of Morocco’s strategic fuel-storage capacity.

According to the report, these installations remain theoretically recoverable, although more than a decade of inactivity means that extensive technical evaluations and rehabilitation work would likely be required before any potential restart.

The study also points to the existence of significant land holdings and industrial infrastructure whose market value has never been publicly disclosed.

Energy security remains central to the debate

The report concludes that the economic impact of SAMIR’s closure extends beyond accounting calculations and financial losses. It raises broader questions regarding Morocco’s long-term energy strategy, industrial sovereignty, and resilience to international market shocks.

Supporters of restoring domestic refining capacity argue that local processing could help strengthen energy security, improve storage flexibility, and retain more value within the national economy. Others point to the substantial investment that would be required to modernize aging infrastructure and adapt refining operations to evolving global energy trends.

As Morocco continues investing in renewable energy, electricity generation, natural gas infrastructure, and industrial development, the future of the SAMIR refinery remains one of the country’s most closely watched energy and economic issues. More than eleven years after operations stopped, the debate over its role in Morocco’s energy landscape continues to shape discussions about the balance between import dependence, industrial capacity, and long-term economic resilience.