Casablanca – Morocco is expected to enter 2026 with a resilient economic outlook, supported by strong domestic demand, sustained investment activity, and broadly stable macroeconomic fundamentals, according to forecasts published by Standard Chartered. Despite a challenging global environment marked by slower trade growth, geopolitical uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions, the bank believes that Morocco is well positioned to maintain a relatively strong growth trajectory compared with many emerging economies.

In its annual Global Focus 2026 report, Standard Chartered Global Research projects Morocco’s economic growth at 4.5% in 2026, following an estimated expansion of 4.8% in 2025, the highest rate recorded since the post-pandemic recovery period. This performance places Morocco among the more dynamic economies in its peer group, reflecting the growing role of non-agricultural sectors and a sustained investment cycle.

A complex global backdrop

The bank’s outlook is set against a global economic environment that remains uncertain. According to Standard Chartered, global growth is expected to reach around 3.4% in 2026, supported by resilient domestic demand and ongoing investment in several regions. However, this growth comes amid slowing international trade, persistent geopolitical tensions, and the gradual normalization of monetary policies following years of accommodative conditions.

For an open economy like Morocco, global trends remain a key factor shaping economic prospects. External demand, financial market conditions, and investor sentiment toward emerging markets continue to influence growth dynamics. Nevertheless, Standard Chartered notes that Morocco’s internal drivers have become increasingly important, helping to cushion the impact of external shocks.

Growth driven by non-agricultural sectors

A central element of the bank’s forecast is the continued strength of Morocco’s non-agricultural economy. Services and industrial activities are expected to remain the main engines of growth, benefiting from a recovery in activity, expanding capacity, and rising investment levels. This structural shift has reduced the economy’s dependence on agricultural performance, which remains vulnerable to climate variability.

Public and private investment is projected to play a decisive role in sustaining economic momentum. Large-scale infrastructure projects, particularly those linked to preparations for the 2030 World Cup, are contributing to higher domestic demand, job creation, and improved medium-term growth prospects. These projects are also enhancing Morocco’s attractiveness as an investment destination, especially in sectors such as transport, construction, logistics, and services.

At the same time, easing inflationary pressures are supporting household consumption. The disinflation process observed in recent quarters has helped stabilize purchasing power, while tourism revenues and remittance inflows from Moroccans living abroad continue to provide important sources of foreign exchange and income support.

Challenges remain on the horizon

While the outlook is broadly positive, Standard Chartered identifies several risks that warrant close monitoring. Agricultural activity is expected to face continued pressure due to rainfall deficits observed at the start of the agricultural season, limiting the sector’s contribution to growth and employment. Although agriculture represents a declining share of GDP, its social and regional importance remains significant.

The bank also expects the current account deficit to widen to around 2.5% of GDP in 2026. This trend is mainly attributed to higher imports of capital goods, reflecting increased investment activity. While such a development signals economic dynamism, it also underscores the need to maintain adequate external buffers and export competitiveness.

Social pressures and reform implementation risks are another factor highlighted in the report. Structural reforms, particularly those related to employment, social protection, and public sector efficiency, remain essential to sustaining long-term growth and social cohesion.

Stable macroeconomic framework

Despite these challenges, Standard Chartered considers Morocco’s macroeconomic fundamentals to be sound. Fiscal policy is expected to remain on a consolidation path, with the government targeting a budget deficit of around 3% of GDP in 2026. This approach aims to preserve fiscal sustainability while continuing to support priority investment and social programs.

On the monetary front, Bank Al-Maghrib is expected to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 2%, maintaining a cautious stance amid moderate inflation. The central bank is also preparing for a gradual transition toward an inflation-targeting framework by 2027, a move that could enhance policy credibility and allow for greater exchange rate flexibility over the medium term.

About Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered is a leading international banking group with a strong presence across emerging markets in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. With a long-standing footprint in Morocco, the bank is active in corporate banking, trade finance, and investment services, supporting cross-border flows and large-scale projects. Through its Global Research division, Standard Chartered provides economic analysis and forecasts covering major global and regional markets, with a particular focus on emerging economies.

According to the bank, Morocco’s combination of political stability, ongoing structural reforms, and sustained investment makes it relatively well positioned to navigate global uncertainty. While external risks remain, Standard Chartered’s outlook suggests that Morocco is entering 2026 with a solid foundation to sustain growth and strengthen its economic resilience in the years ahead.