Casablanca – Morocco’s economy is expected to enter a phase of sustained and broad-based growth over the next two years, with real GDP projected to expand by around 5% in 2026, up from an estimated 4.7% in 2025, according to recent forecasts by the High Commission for Planning (HCP). The outlook points to four consecutive years of accelerating growth, driven mainly by a recovery in agriculture, continued strength in non-agricultural activities, and resilient domestic demand.

This growth trajectory follows a period of relative slowdown and uncertainty, particularly linked to climate shocks and external demand pressures. However, recent data suggest a more favorable environment is emerging, supported by improved weather conditions, stronger investment dynamics, and steady performance across key sectors of the economy.

Agriculture regains its role as a growth engine

The agricultural sector is expected to play a central role in the economic rebound. Although the 2025–2026 agricultural season began with a notable rainfall deficit, heavy and well-distributed precipitation from late November helped offset earlier shortfalls. These conditions have significantly improved prospects for crop production, particularly cereals, which are assumed to exceed average levels.

As a result, agricultural value added is projected to rise by 10.4% in 2026, compared with an estimated 4.5% in 2025. This rebound is expected to translate into stronger rural incomes, improved food supply conditions, and greater overall economic momentum. Favorable rainfall has also contributed to higher dam reserves and better groundwater recharge, reinforcing water security at a time when climate variability remains a major concern.

Livestock activities are also expected to recover in 2026. This improvement reflects a combination of better vegetation cover and pasture availability, the national program to rebuild the herd, and the positive impact of the royal call not to perform the Eid al-Adha sacrifice in 2025. Together, these factors are expected to ease pressure on livestock resources and support higher output in the sector.

Fishing activity, after a projected decline in 2025 due to lower coastal and artisanal catches, is expected to see a modest recovery in 2026. Overall, the primary sector is forecast to grow by around 10% in 2026, compared with 3.7% in 2025, contributing about 1.1 percentage points to national economic growth.

Non-agricultural sectors maintain solid momentum

Beyond agriculture, non-agricultural activities are expected to continue expanding at a steady pace. After an estimated growth rate of 4.5% in 2025, these activities are projected to grow by around 4.3% in 2026. This performance reflects the combined impact of stronger industrial output, continued good results in construction and public works, and the sustained strength of market services.

Manufacturing activity is expected to stabilize at around 4% growth in both 2025 and 2026, following a weaker performance in 2024. Within the sector, agri-food industries, which account for roughly 27.5% of manufacturing value added, are projected to grow by about 3.6% in 2026, supported by improved agricultural output and resilient domestic demand.

Textiles, clothing, and leather industries are expected to post a modest recovery, with growth of around 2.1% in 2026 after a contraction in 2025. This improvement reflects ongoing modernization of production chains and gradual upgrading of product quality, though the sector remains exposed to competitive pressures and shifting demand in export markets.

Transport equipment manufacturing is expected to benefit from strong performance in aerospace, electrical wiring systems, and battery-related technologies. However, this sector continues to face challenges linked to weak European demand for conventional vehicles, as the automotive industry accelerates its transition toward hybrid and electric models.

The chemical industry is projected to grow by about 4.5% in 2026, supported by increased local phosphate processing capacity, the launch of innovative chemical units, and stronger global demand. The extractive sector is also expected to regain momentum, with growth projected at around 6.5% in 2026, following a slowdown in 2025, as new industrial and mining capacities come on stream.

Construction and public works are expected to remain a key pillar of economic activity. After growing by around 6% in 2025, the sector is projected to expand by about 4.1% in 2026. This outlook reflects the gradual completion of major infrastructure projects, alongside continued investment in transport, logistics, and housing, including the direct housing support program.

Overall, secondary sector activities are expected to grow by around 4.2% in 2026, maintaining a stable contribution of approximately 1.1 percentage points to national economic growth.

Services sector supported by tourism and trade

The services sector is expected to maintain its resilience and continue contributing strongly to growth. Tertiary sector value added is projected to rise by around 4.3% in 2026, contributing approximately 2.3 percentage points to GDP growth.

Wholesale and retail trade, along with vehicle repair — which represent nearly one-fifth of tertiary value added — are expected to grow by about 4.6% in 2026, supported by strong domestic consumption and a relatively stable inflation environment.

Accommodation and food services are expected to continue their upward trajectory, driven by higher tourist arrivals, rising tourism revenues, and sustained efforts to promote Morocco as a global destination. This momentum is expected to be reinforced by gradual improvements in tourism capacity and service quality.

Transport and storage services are also expected to strengthen, with projected growth of around 5.3% in 2026. This reflects rising passenger and freight flows, expanded airport and port capacity, and improved logistics infrastructure. Non-market services are likewise expected to continue growing, supported by higher public sector activity and wage dynamics.

Domestic demand remains the main growth driver

According to the HCP, domestic demand will remain the primary engine of economic growth in 2026. Household final consumption is projected to grow by around 4.1%, contributing roughly 2.5 percentage points to overall growth. Public consumption is expected to rise by about 5.7%, adding close to one percentage point.

Overall, national final consumption is projected to increase by around 4.5% in 2026, slightly slower than in 2025, but still providing a strong base for economic expansion.

Investment is expected to remain robust, with gross capital formation projected to grow by around 8.7% in 2026, following a sharp increase in 2025. Investment is expected to contribute approximately 2.8 percentage points to GDP growth, reflecting ongoing public infrastructure projects, private sector expansion, and large-scale strategic investments.

As a result, overall domestic demand is expected to grow by around 5.7% in 2026, contributing more than six percentage points to GDP growth.

External trade outlook remains mixed

On the external front, the outlook remains more cautious. Automotive and textile exports are expected to face structural challenges linked to the energy transition and moderate demand in Europe. At the same time, exports of phosphates, agricultural products, and agri-food goods are expected to maintain a favorable trajectory, supported by strong global demand, restrictions on competing exports, and Morocco’s expanding production capacity.

Services exports, particularly in tourism and transport, are expected to continue improving, reflecting Morocco’s growing attractiveness as a travel destination and expanding transport infrastructure.

However, imports are expected to continue rising, driven by strong domestic demand and investment needs. As a result, the trade deficit is projected to remain elevated, exceeding 21% of GDP in 2026, while the current account deficit is expected to narrow slightly to below 2% of GDP, supported by continued remittance inflows and services receipts.

Public finances and macroeconomic balances

On the fiscal front, economic prospects for 2026 appear favorable. Rising tax revenues, supported by stronger economic activity, are expected to contribute to a gradual reduction in the budget deficit, projected at around 3.2% of GDP in 2026, down from 3.6% in 2025. This improvement is expected to help consolidate the path of fiscal consolidation.

Public debt is projected to decline moderately as a share of GDP, supported by strong nominal growth and improved fiscal balances. Treasury debt is expected to fall to around 66.1% of GDP in 2026.

National savings are also projected to improve, reaching over 30% of GDP in 2026, while investment is expected to remain above 32% of GDP, reflecting continued capital formation and development priorities.

Outlook

Morocco’s economic outlook for 2026 points to a phase of sustained and increasingly balanced growth. The recovery of agriculture, continued expansion in non-agricultural sectors, and strong domestic demand form the core pillars of this trajectory. At the same time, external risks — including global economic uncertainty, evolving trade conditions, and structural shifts in key export markets — continue to pose challenges.

Nevertheless, the combination of favorable climate conditions, resilient investment dynamics, and improving public finances suggests that Morocco is entering 2026 with a more solid and diversified growth base than in previous years.