Casablanca – Morocco’s citrus sector is facing growing difficulties as prolonged drought, declining water resources and shrinking cultivated areas continue to affect agricultural production. Annual output has fallen below two million tonnes, compared with approximately 2.5 million tonnes in previous years and peak levels exceeding 2.6 million tonnes during the 2018–2019 and 2021–2022 agricultural seasons. The decline is affecting farmers, exporters and processing facilities, while raising concerns about the sector’s ability to restore its production capacity and maintain its competitiveness in international markets.

The contraction of citrus-growing areas reflects the scale of the challenges facing producers. Over the past decade, approximately 34,000 hectares have been lost, reducing the national cultivated area from 129,000 hectares to around 95,000 hectares. The sector has lost approximately 10,000 hectares during the last three years alone, as water shortages have made it increasingly difficult to maintain existing orchards.

The impact has been particularly significant in Tadla and the Oriental region, where citrus-growing areas have contracted by between 25% and 30%. Both regions depend heavily on water supplied by dams, making agricultural activity particularly vulnerable to prolonged periods of insufficient rainfall. The Souss and Haouz regions have also experienced difficulties, while the Gharb (west) region has shown greater resilience thanks to more favourable water availability.

This regional disparity illustrates the growing influence of water resources on the distribution of agricultural production in Morocco. Farmers in areas with limited irrigation supplies have faced higher operating costs, reduced yields and difficulties maintaining their plantations. In some cases, prolonged water shortages have contributed to the abandonment of orchards, further reducing the country’s productive capacity.

The decline in output has also affected export volumes. Morocco currently exports approximately 550,000 tonnes of citrus fruits annually, compared with around 600,000 tonnes before 2020. Nevertheless, export revenues have increased despite lower shipments. Their value rose from approximately $391 million to more than $515 million in 2025, representing growth of 32.6%.

This increase indicates that higher commercial values have partly compensated for the reduction in exported quantities. Tangerines and mandarins remain the principal products in Morocco’s fresh citrus export portfolio, while oranges, lemons and other varieties contribute smaller volumes. Export performance varies between categories, reflecting differences in international demand, production conditions and access to foreign markets.

The 2025–2026 marketing season has also shown signs of recovery in certain production areas. National output estimates have approached 2.09 million tonnes, with mandarins and clementines accounting for approximately 1.14 million tonnes and oranges contributing around 900,000 tonnes. However, production remains exposed to variations in rainfall and irrigation availability, while regional improvements have not necessarily reversed the cumulative losses experienced during previous drought seasons.

The economic consequences extend beyond agricultural production. Morocco’s citrus value chain includes approximately 50 packing stations and six juice-processing units, which depend on regular supplies of fresh fruit. Reduced production has weakened their operating conditions, particularly because citrus processing is characterised by a relatively short seasonal period.

Lower availability of raw materials has contributed to the closure of approximately 20 packing stations and disrupted supplies to juice manufacturers. These facilities require sufficient quantities of fruit to cover operating costs and generate adequate returns on investments in machinery, storage, packaging and logistics. Irregular supplies make it more difficult to maintain production schedules and use installed capacities efficiently.

The sector also provides income for approximately 13,000 farming households and supports employment across harvesting, transport, packaging and commercial distribution. Its difficulties therefore have implications for rural economies, particularly in regions where citrus cultivation represents an important source of agricultural income.

Morocco’s citrus exports are also facing increasingly strong competition from other producing countries, particularly Egypt and Turkey. Both have expanded their presence in international markets, increasing competitive pressure on Moroccan suppliers. European markets, which remain important destinations for Moroccan agricultural products, have become more competitive as buyers diversify their sources of supply.

This situation requires Moroccan exporters to maintain consistent quality, control production costs and improve their ability to meet delivery requirements. Water shortages can affect fruit sizes, yields and production costs, making it more difficult for growers to compete with suppliers operating under different climatic and agricultural conditions.

The changing composition of Morocco’s agricultural exports adds another dimension to the sector’s challenges. Citrus fruits now represent approximately 8% of the total value of fresh fruit and vegetable exports, compared with 17% a decade ago. The decline reflects both the contraction of citrus cultivation and the rapid development of other agricultural products, particularly avocados and red berries, which generally achieve higher commercial values in international markets.

Despite these difficulties, improved weather conditions during the latest agricultural season have brought some optimism to producers. Better rainfall has contributed to the recovery of dam reserves, creating an opportunity to support existing orchards that have survived several years of water stress.

Sector professionals increasingly favour directing additional water resources towards preserving and improving existing plantations rather than immediately expanding cultivated areas. Restoring the productive capacity of established orchards could help stabilise supplies, improve yields and strengthen the availability of fruit for both domestic consumption and exports.

Major water infrastructure projects could also contribute to improving the sector’s prospects. These include the construction of new dams, the expansion of existing reservoirs through raising projects and the development of seawater desalination facilities. Such investments are expected to provide additional irrigation resources and reduce dependence on rainfall in certain agricultural regions.

However, the availability of additional water will not automatically resolve the sector’s structural difficulties. Future agricultural investments will need to consider the long-term sustainability of water supplies, the cost of irrigation and the economic viability of new plantations. Expanding citrus-growing areas without securing reliable water resources could expose producers to further losses.

Improving irrigation efficiency will consequently remain essential. Modern irrigation systems, better monitoring of water consumption and agricultural practices designed to reduce evaporation can help producers obtain better yields from available resources. These measures could also improve the resilience of orchards against future periods of drought.

The sector’s recovery will depend equally on strengthening the relationship between agricultural production, processing and exports. Packing stations and juice manufacturers need more predictable supplies to operate efficiently, while farmers require reliable commercial outlets to improve the profitability of their plantations.

Morocco also has opportunities to strengthen its position through export diversification, better product quality and improved logistics. Expanding commercial relationships beyond traditional destinations could help reduce dependence on individual markets and create additional opportunities for different citrus varieties.

For the approximately 13,000 households connected to citrus cultivation, the stakes extend beyond export revenues and production statistics. The preservation of orchards, access to irrigation and the continuity of processing activities directly influence agricultural incomes and employment in several regions.

Morocco’s citrus sector therefore faces a recovery process that will require more than a temporary improvement in rainfall. Protecting existing plantations, managing water resources more efficiently, restoring processing capacity and adapting to international competition will be essential to rebuilding production. The ability to coordinate these efforts will determine whether the sector can gradually regain its previous output levels while maintaining its economic and social contribution to the country’s agricultural economy.