Casablanca – Early indicators for Morocco’s citrus sector during the 2025/2026 agricultural season point to a period of relative improvement after several years marked by climatic stress and production volatility. Supported by more favorable weather conditions and a natural stabilization in the fruit tree production cycle, citrus output is expected to exceed the average levels recorded over the past five years, strengthening both domestic supply and export prospects.

According to sector estimates cited by specialized agricultural platforms, Morocco’s mandarin and clementine production is projected to reach approximately 1.15 million metric tons, representing a 4% increase compared with the previous season. This recovery reflects improved growing conditions during key stages of fruit development, including flowering and fruit setting, which contributed to higher yields and better fruit quality across major producing regions.

Orange production is also expected to show a modest improvement. Output for the 2025/2026 season is forecast at around 970,000 metric tons, marking a 1% increase year-on-year. Meanwhile, production of lemons and limes is estimated at approximately 48,000 metric tons, confirming a general upward trend across most citrus categories, even if growth rates vary by variety.

Weather and tree cycles drive improved performance

The improvement in production is primarily attributed to more favorable climatic conditions during the growing season, particularly in comparison with previous years affected by drought and heat stress. Adequate rainfall and moderate temperatures helped orchards regain part of their productive capacity, while reducing pressure on irrigation systems in several agricultural zones.

In parallel, the natural alternation cycle of citrus trees played a significant role. After seasons characterized by lower yields, many orchards have entered a more balanced production phase, allowing for improved fruiting and more consistent output. Producers report better fruit sizing, improved coloration, and overall quality gains, factors that are especially important for export markets.

Despite this positive momentum, total citrus production remains below the historical peak recorded during the 2018/2019 season, which remains a reference year for the sector. However, current volumes are now slightly above the five-year average, suggesting a gradual and controlled recovery rather than a short-term rebound.

Export outlook remains cautiously optimistic

On the export front, mandarins continue to play a central role in Morocco’s citrus trade. Mandarin exports for the 2025/2026 season are expected to reach around 550,000 metric tons, reflecting a 2% increase compared with the previous season. This growth is supported by improved supply availability and steady demand in key international markets.

The export campaign, however, began approximately two weeks later than usual, due to delays in fruit maturation and the time required for produce to reach optimal export size and quality standards. Sector observers indicate that this delay is unlikely to affect overall seasonal volumes, as shipments are expected to accelerate during peak export months.

Orange exports are projected to remain relatively stable at around 85,000 metric tons, reflecting more limited growth potential compared with mandarins. Lemon and lime exports are estimated at approximately 10,000 metric tons, highlighting differing export dynamics among citrus varieties, influenced by market demand, logistics, and pricing conditions.

Government support and investment incentives

The performance of the citrus sector continues to benefit from government support mechanisms, particularly through incentive programs aimed at strengthening export capacity and improving post-harvest infrastructure. According to the 2025 report of the Agricultural Development Fund, authorities are maintaining financial incentives designed to encourage investment in packing, grading, and cold storage facilities.

These measures aim to improve product traceability, reduce post-harvest losses, and enhance the overall competitiveness of Moroccan citrus on international markets. By supporting modernization across the value chain, policymakers seek to ensure that production gains translate into higher export revenues and better value added for producers.

A sector looking toward stability

Producers generally view the 2025/2026 season as promising, both in terms of volumes and fruit quality. While challenges related to water availability, input costs, and climate variability persist, the current season suggests a return to more predictable production patterns.

In the medium term, the citrus sector’s performance will depend on its ability to adapt to changing climatic conditions, diversify export markets, and continue improving productivity. The combination of improved weather, stabilized tree cycles, and ongoing policy support positions Morocco to consolidate its role as a key citrus supplier, particularly in the mandarin segment.

As the season progresses, stakeholders will closely monitor export flows and market conditions to assess whether this recovery can be sustained in future campaigns. For now, the 2025/2026 outlook reflects a cautious but tangible improvement for one of Morocco’s most important agricultural export sectors.