Casablanca – Over the past decade and a half, Morocco’s agricultural sector has undergone a profound transformation driven by ambitious national strategies aimed at boosting productivity, attracting investment, and expanding exports. Chief among these initiatives are the Green Morocco Plan and its successor, the Green Generation strategy. While these programs have delivered measurable economic gains and positioned Morocco as a major agricultural exporter, recent analytical studies are increasingly highlighting structural challenges related to water sustainability and national food security.

The agricultural sector remains a key pillar of Morocco’s economy, contributing between 12% and 14% of gross domestic product and providing livelihoods for millions of rural households. Through targeted public support and private investment, the sector has modernized significantly, particularly through the expansion of localized irrigation systems and the development of high–value export crops. These efforts have helped Morocco achieve record levels of agricultural and agri-food exports, strengthening foreign currency inflows and enhancing the country’s presence in international markets.

However, analytical assessments conducted by research institutions, including the African Center for Strategic Studies and Digitalization (CAESD), suggest that this export-oriented growth model has come with growing trade-offs. According to these studies, the focus on rapid production growth and export competitiveness has intensified pressure on natural resources, especially water, while leaving key aspects of food self-sufficiency insufficiently addressed.

One of the most visible transformations within the sector has been the large-scale adoption of drip irrigation. The area equipped with this technology expanded from roughly 210,000 hectares in 2008 to nearly 600,000 hectares by 2018. This shift was designed to improve water efficiency and support higher agricultural yields. In practice, however, analysts note that gains in efficiency have often been offset by the expansion of irrigated land and the cultivation of crops with high water requirements.

Export-oriented farming has increasingly prioritized crops such as avocados and watermelons, which generate high returns but require substantial volumes of water. In several regions already experiencing water stress, this trend has contributed to the accelerated depletion of groundwater reserves. As a result, Morocco now faces a paradox in which it exports large volumes of agricultural products that embody significant amounts of “virtual water,” despite being one of the countries most affected by water scarcity in the Mediterranean region.

Official data and studies indicate that per capita water availability has fallen below 500 cubic meters per year, placing Morocco under the threshold of absolute water scarcity. Researchers warn that continued reliance on groundwater extraction without stronger regulation could undermine long-term agricultural viability and intensify competition over water resources between farming, domestic use, and industry.

Beyond water concerns, analysts also point to the growing gap between export performance and food security objectives. While agricultural exports have reached record levels—exceeding 1.3 million tons during the 2018/2019 season—Morocco remains dependent on international markets for key staple crops, particularly cereals and animal feed. Critics argue that the emphasis on export value chains has diverted public support away from subsistence and food-security crops, increasing exposure to global price volatility.

From an economic perspective, the strategies have delivered clear benefits. Average annual agricultural growth reached around 4.7% between 2008 and 2020, supported by investments estimated at approximately 104 billion dirhams over a ten-year period. These investments helped modernize production systems, attract domestic and foreign capital, and create employment opportunities across multiple agricultural value chains.

Nevertheless, recent studies underline governance and implementation challenges. They highlight technical shortcomings in subsidized irrigation projects, questions surrounding the effectiveness of certain financial incentives, and concerns about transparency in how agricultural support programs are communicated and evaluated. Environmental sustainability, researchers argue, has not always been fully integrated into feasibility studies or long-term planning frameworks.

In response to these findings, analysts are increasingly calling for a recalibration of Morocco’s agricultural model. Rather than abandoning export agriculture, they advocate for a more balanced approach that aligns economic performance with resource sustainability and food security objectives. Proposed reforms include redirecting a greater share of public support toward cereals, legumes, and other essential food crops, as well as linking agricultural subsidies more closely to water-saving outcomes.

Strengthening water governance is also seen as a priority. This includes stricter regulation of groundwater use, clearer limits on water-intensive crops in highly stressed regions, and continued investment in alternative water sources. In this context, seawater desalination projects are viewed as a strategic option to reduce pressure on aquifers, particularly if part of the produced water can be allocated to agricultural use under controlled conditions.

Support for rural cooperatives and local development initiatives is another area highlighted by researchers, who stress the need to create sustainable employment and limit rural migration, especially in remote and vulnerable regions.

As Morocco continues to adapt its agricultural policies to the realities of climate change and resource scarcity, the debate surrounding the Green Morocco Plan and the Green Generation strategy illustrates a broader challenge: reconciling economic ambition with environmental limits. The coming years are likely to determine whether the sector can transition from a model centered on growth and exports to one that ensures long-term resilience, water security, and food sovereignty.