Casablanca – Trade in goods between Morocco and the United States exceeded $7.14 billion during the first nine months of 2026, representing a 26.2% increase compared with the same period in 2025. The figures point to stronger commercial exchanges between the two countries, while highlighting a persistent imbalance in the value of their respective exports, with American shipments to Morocco remaining considerably higher than Moroccan exports to the US market.

According to US Census Bureau data, bilateral merchandise trade reached approximately $7.14 billion between January and September 2026. This represented nearly 97% of the $7.39 billion recorded during the whole of 2025, indicating that trade could surpass last year’s level if the current pace continues through the final quarter.

American exports accounted for the largest share of the increase. US shipments to Morocco reached $5.44 billion during the first nine months of the year, compared with $4.26 billion over the same period in 2025, an increase of approximately 28%. The result placed American exports close to their full-year 2025 value, with only around $85 million separating the two figures.

Moroccan exports to the United States also recorded growth, reaching $1.70 billion, up from $1.41 billion a year earlier. The 20.8% increase indicates that Moroccan companies continued to expand their sales in the American market. However, the value of these shipments remained significantly below that of US exports to Morocco.

The difference between the two trade flows produced an American merchandise trade surplus of approximately $3.74 billion between January and September. This was already higher than the $3.67 billion surplus recorded for the whole of 2025, reflecting the faster expansion of American shipments in value terms.

September figures illustrate the scale of the exchanges during the final month of the period. Bilateral merchandise trade approached $903 million, with American exports to Morocco reaching $698.9 million. Moroccan shipments to the United States amounted to $203.7 million.

The figures show that both countries increased their exports, although the benefits of the expansion were distributed unevenly. US companies recorded a larger increase in absolute value, while Moroccan exporters continued to strengthen their position in the American market without substantially narrowing the trade gap.

The first nine months of 2026 therefore point to a higher level of commercial activity between Morocco and the United States, alongside a growing American surplus. The final quarter will determine whether bilateral merchandise trade exceeds the previous year’s total and whether Moroccan exports can maintain their growth rate as the year draws to a close.

Twenty years of free trade and expanding commercial relations

The latest figures come as Morocco and the United States mark 20 years since their free trade agreement entered into force. Signed in June 2004 and implemented on January 1, 2006, the agreement established a framework for gradually reducing and eliminating customs barriers and facilitating access to the two markets.

The arrangement was intended to encourage trade, expand commercial opportunities and strengthen economic cooperation between the two countries. Its implementation has coincided with the development of bilateral exchanges across several sectors, including agriculture, fertilizers, industrial products and services.

However, the evolution of trade over the past two decades has also highlighted differences in the structure and scale of exports. American companies benefit from a broad range of products supplied to Morocco, while Moroccan exports to the United States remain concentrated in a more limited number of categories, despite growth in several segments.

The latest performance therefore raises questions about how Morocco can make greater use of the agreement to expand its export base and improve the balance of commercial exchanges. Increasing the number of Moroccan companies able to access the American market, diversifying products and strengthening competitiveness are among the factors that could influence future trade developments.

The merchandise figures alone, however, do not capture the entire economic relationship. Services trade provides an additional dimension and shows a considerably narrower imbalance between the two countries.

Services trade presents a more balanced picture

When services are included, the overall scale of economic exchanges becomes considerably larger. According to estimates from the Office of the US Trade Representative, bilateral trade in goods and services reached approximately $9.6 billion in 2025, representing an increase of 4.2% compared with 2024. Services accounted for around $2.2 billion of this total.

American exports of services to Morocco amounted to approximately $1.2 billion in 2025, increasing by 9.8% year on year. These exchanges cover activities beyond physical merchandise, reflecting the growing role of commercial and professional services in bilateral economic relations.

Moroccan exports of services to the United States reached approximately $1 billion, recording stronger annual growth of 19.5%. This performance reduced the American surplus in services trade to around $119 million, a relatively small difference compared with the merchandise trade deficit.

The contrast between the two segments is significant. In goods, the United States maintains a substantial export advantage, whereas services exchanges are much closer in value. The faster growth of Moroccan service exports suggests that this segment could provide additional opportunities for strengthening the Kingdom’s commercial position in the American market.

The development of services trade also broadens the potential areas of cooperation beyond traditional merchandise exports. As economic relations become more diversified, service providers can contribute to bilateral exchanges alongside manufacturers, agricultural exporters and suppliers of industrial inputs.

Phosphate fertilizer shipments to the United States increase

Phosphate fertilizers accounted for a growing share of Morocco’s exports to the United States during the first nine months of 2026. According to US customs statistics, shipments of three main categories, monoammonium phosphate (MAP), concentrated superphosphates and diammonium phosphate (DAP), reached a combined volume of 232,801 tonnes between January and September.

Their total value stood at $160.59 million, compared with 164,945 tonnes worth $116.15 million during the same period in 2025. This represents an increase of 41.1% in volume and 38.3% in value.

The figures also show differences in the performance of individual fertilizer categories. While shipments of certain products increased substantially, others recorded declines over the same period.

Concentrated superphosphates containing at least 35% phosphorus pentoxide registered the largest increase. Exports to the United States rose from 2,007 tonnes in the first nine months of 2025 to 86,905 tonnes during the corresponding period of 2026.

Their value also increased, reaching $46.96 million compared with $1.46 million a year earlier. The volume was therefore more than 43 times higher, accounting for 37.3% of the combined shipments of the three main fertilizer categories.

Diammonium phosphate was another component of Moroccan fertilizer exports recorded in the latest US customs data. No shipments were reported during the corresponding period of 2025, while imports reached 16,382 tonnes between January and September 2026, with a total value of $13.73 million.

Meanwhile, monoammonium phosphate remained the largest category in terms of export value, despite a decline in shipments. Its volume fell by 20.5%, from 162,938 tonnes in the first nine months of 2025 to 129,514 tonnes in the same period of 2026. Its value decreased by 12.9%, from $114.69 million to $99.9 million.

MAP nevertheless represented 62.2% of the combined value of the three fertilizer categories. Of the total volume recorded, 22,625 tonnes, valued at $21.22 million, were classified as imports for consumption in the United States, excluding products stored in customs warehouses or free trade zones.

The customs records also included 312 tonnes of MAP and DAP mixtures, worth $406,560, as well as 157 tonnes of other superphosphates, valued at $25,920.

Including all products covered by the fertilizer customs classification, Moroccan shipments to the United States reached 233,270 tonnes, with a total value of $161.03 million during the first nine months of 2026. In comparison, the corresponding figures for 2025 stood at 174,669 tonnes and $122.72 million, representing annual increases of 33.6% in volume and 31.2% in value.

The figures indicate an increase in US imports of Moroccan phosphate fertilizers, alongside changes in the distribution of shipments among the different product categories. While concentrated superphosphates and DAP recorded higher volumes, MAP remained the largest category by value despite its decline.

The challenge of diversifying Moroccan exports

The continued expansion of American sales to Morocco, combined with the relatively smaller value of Moroccan exports, highlights the differences between the two countries’ commercial positions.

For Morocco, improving access to the US market remains an important objective, particularly given the size of the American economy and the opportunities available to foreign suppliers. However, increasing export volumes requires more than preferential customs arrangements. Moroccan companies must also meet American market requirements, maintain competitive prices, ensure consistent supply and develop distribution networks capable of reaching customers across the country.

Agricultural and food products, phosphate fertilizers and manufactured goods offer different opportunities for expanding exports. The performance of phosphate fertilizers in 2026 demonstrates that Moroccan suppliers can increase their market share in specific product categories. Nevertheless, the decline in MAP shipments also illustrates the importance of monitoring demand and adapting export strategies to changes in the composition of imports.

Diversification could help reduce the concentration of Moroccan exports in a limited number of product categories. Expanding the range of manufactured products, processed agricultural goods and services supplied to American customers could gradually increase the value of Moroccan sales and make bilateral trade less dependent on a small group of export sectors.

The services segment provides another potential source of growth. Its relatively balanced trade structure and the 19.5% increase in Moroccan service exports to the United States in 2025 indicate that Moroccan providers have opportunities beyond traditional merchandise exchanges.

A growing partnership with an unresolved trade imbalance

The 2026 figures confirm that commercial relations between Morocco and the United States continue to expand, two decades after the implementation of their free trade agreement. The increase in merchandise exchanges, alongside the development of services trade, reflects sustained economic links between the two countries.

However, the widening American surplus shows that higher trade volumes do not automatically translate into more balanced commercial relations. With US exports reaching $5.44 billion against $1.70 billion in Moroccan exports during the first nine months of 2026, the gap remains considerable.

The performance of Moroccan phosphate fertilizers provides evidence of progress in certain export segments, while the services figures demonstrate that Moroccan companies can achieve stronger growth in areas where the trade relationship is more balanced.

The main challenge for Morocco will be to translate these individual gains into broader export growth. Greater product diversification, improved competitiveness and stronger access to American distribution channels could help Moroccan businesses benefit more fully from the opportunities offered by the bilateral agreement.

As the year approaches its final quarter, the pace of trade suggests that 2026 could set a new record for merchandise exchanges between the two countries. Whether this expansion also contributes to reducing the trade imbalance will depend largely on the ability of Moroccan exporters to increase their presence in the American market and broaden the range of products and services they supply.