Casablanca – More than twenty years after the signing of the Morocco–United States Free Trade Agreement (FTA), and nearly two decades after its entry into force in 2006, the economic relationship between the two countries presents a mixed and increasingly scrutinized record. Originally promoted as a strategic tool to boost trade, attract investment, diversify Morocco’s economy, and create employment, the agreement has delivered uneven outcomes, particularly in terms of trade balance, industrial upgrading, and job creation.

According to recent analyses by the U.S.-based Brookings Institution, the core objectives of the agreement have not been fully realized. While bilateral trade volumes have expanded significantly, the benefits have been distributed asymmetrically, reflecting structural differences between the two economies and persistent imbalances in competitiveness.

Trade growth accompanied by structural imbalance

Since the implementation of the FTA, bilateral trade has increased steadily, but largely in one direction. Moroccan imports from the United States have grown at a much faster pace than exports. In 2023, imports from the U.S. approached $6 billion, while Moroccan exports to the American market amounted to approximately $1.5 billion. This gap has widened over time, confirming a structural trade imbalance rather than a short-term fluctuation linked to economic cycles.

Data analyzed by Brookings show that this trend predates the FTA but accelerated after its entry into force. The agreement did not reverse the trajectory; instead, it coincided with a sustained expansion of Moroccan demand for U.S. goods, including agricultural products, industrial equipment, and high-value manufactured items. Meanwhile, Morocco’s export growth to the U.S. remained comparatively modest.

As a result, the U.S. trade surplus with Morocco increased significantly. While it was marginal in 2005, it reached $3.4 billion in 2024, highlighting the long-term nature of the imbalance embedded in the bilateral trade relationship.

Export structure and limited industrial upgrading

One of the key explanations for this imbalance lies in the structure of Moroccan exports. Over time, exports to the United States have become increasingly concentrated in capital-intensive sectors, particularly phosphate-based fertilizers and chemical products. These sectors generate high export values but create relatively few jobs.

At the same time, labor-intensive industries that once played a central role in Morocco’s export strategy—most notably textiles and apparel—have steadily lost ground in the U.S. market. This shift has had direct implications for employment, particularly for women, who have traditionally been strongly represented in these sectors.

Brookings also highlights the limited progress made in upgrading Morocco’s export profile. In 2021, high-technology products accounted for only 6% of total Moroccan exports, a lower share than recorded two decades earlier. This indicates that the FTA did not significantly accelerate Morocco’s move up global value chains or foster the development of knowledge-intensive manufacturing.

Investment flows with modest employment impact

Foreign direct investment (FDI) from the United States has been another pillar of the bilateral economic relationship. American firms have invested in sectors such as renewable energy, aerospace, infrastructure, and environmental technologies. These investments have supported Morocco’s industrial capacity, reinforced its position in selected global value chains, and contributed to technological diffusion.

However, their broader economic impact remains limited. The sectors attracting U.S. investment are predominantly capital-intensive, meaning they generate fewer jobs relative to investment volume. As a result, while production capacity has expanded, the expected spillover effects on employment and structural transformation have been weaker than initially anticipated.

Asymmetrical commitments and power dynamics

Brookings emphasizes that the design of the FTA itself contributed to these outcomes. Morocco implemented deeper and faster tariff reductions than the United States, exposing its domestic market more rapidly to competition from a significantly more advanced industrial economy. The U.S., benefiting from economies of scale and higher productivity, was better positioned to take advantage of improved market access.

This asymmetry became more visible over time, particularly as Morocco’s trade deficit persisted and widened. The agreement, while comprehensive on paper—covering goods, services, investment, and intellectual property—did not include mechanisms strong enough to offset structural differences in productive capacity.

Political vulnerability of bilateral free trade

The durability of the agreement has also been tested by political developments. In April 2025, the United States imposed a generalized 10% tariff on certain Moroccan imports, a move seen as inconsistent with the spirit of the FTA. While limited in scope, the decision underscored the vulnerability of bilateral agreements to shifting political priorities.

Brookings notes that such actions illustrate a broader reality: free trade agreements do not eliminate power imbalances between partners; they formalize them within an institutional framework that remains subject to political discretion.

Broader lessons after two decades

After nearly twenty years of implementation, the Morocco–U.S. FTA offers important lessons. Preferential access to a major market, on its own, does not guarantee export diversification, industrial upgrading, or sustained job creation. Without a strong, diversified domestic productive base, the benefits of free trade tend to concentrate in a narrow range of sectors.

As regional integration in Africa accelerates and Morocco deepens its engagement with continental markets, the experience of the U.S. agreement raises broader strategic questions. It highlights the need to align trade policy with industrial development, workforce skills, and value-chain integration to ensure that openness translates into inclusive and sustainable growth.

Two decades on, the Morocco–United States economic relationship remains significant, but its free trade framework reflects both the opportunities and the limits of bilateral liberalization between economies at different stages of development.