Casablanca – Inflation in Morocco continued its downward trajectory for the third consecutive quarter, reaching -0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to data released by the High Commission for Planning (HCP). This marks a significant shift from the 2% inflation recorded at the beginning of the year and reflects a combination of domestic and global economic factors affecting consumer prices.

The HCP’s latest economic briefing highlighted that the decline in inflation was largely driven by a 0.7% drop in food prices, while non-food items saw a modest increase of 0.4%. Analysts point to the strong performance of domestic agricultural production, particularly the olive oil sector, as a key factor behind the drop in food costs. The abundant national olive harvest, combined with falling meat prices, contributed significantly to the overall reduction in food inflation.

In addition to domestic production trends, international market conditions also played a role. Improved global supply of cereals and dried legumes helped reduce import costs, further supporting lower food prices. Despite these positive trends, inflationary pressures persisted in certain sectors, notably fresh produce and coffee, which partially offset the broader declines.

Energy prices also contributed to the moderation of inflation. While the pace of decline slowed compared to the previous quarter, falling by 1.1% in Q4 2025 compared to a 3% decrease in Q3, lower international oil prices helped contain the rise of non-food goods. This trend reflects Morocco’s sensitivity to global commodity price fluctuations and underscores the continued impact of energy markets on domestic inflationary pressures.

Core inflation, which excludes government-regulated prices and highly volatile items, displayed a more pronounced downward trend than overall inflation. It fell to -0.7% in Q4, following a 0.7% increase in the previous quarter. The decline in core inflation reflects a reduction in underlying pressures on food prices, suggesting that the recent decreases are not solely driven by short-term or highly volatile items.

Economists note that the combination of falling food and energy prices, along with stable non-food inflation, indicates a period of relative price stability in Morocco. “The persistent decline in inflation reflects both strong domestic supply conditions and favorable international commodity trends, particularly in agricultural products,” said an economic analyst familiar with the HCP data.

Looking ahead, the HCP projects that inflationary pressures are likely to remain moderate into the first quarter of 2026. While energy prices may continue to fall, the pace is expected to remain slower than in 2025. Food prices, meanwhile, could be influenced by seasonal factors and international market dynamics, particularly for key staples like cereals and oils. Economists emphasize that the Moroccan government’s monitoring of food and energy prices will remain critical in maintaining stable inflation and protecting consumer purchasing power.

The sustained decline in inflation over three consecutive quarters represents a notable shift for Morocco, following a period of relatively higher price growth earlier in 2025. This trend is particularly significant for households, as lower food and energy costs ease living expenses. It also has implications for monetary policy, as the central bank evaluates interest rates and liquidity measures in response to slower price growth.

Morocco’s inflation has entered a period of consistent decline, driven by falling food and energy prices, favorable domestic agricultural output, and supportive global market conditions. Core inflation trends suggest that the underlying pressure on consumer prices is easing, providing a more stable economic environment as the country enters 2026. While certain sectors, such as fresh produce and coffee, continue to face localized price pressures, overall trends point to moderate price growth and improved affordability for Moroccan households.