Casablanca – Morocco is pursuing a carefully sequenced approach to reducing its reliance on coal, seeking to balance climate commitments with the practical requirements of energy security. According to recent projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Morocco’s updated national climate plan, the country intends to stabilize coal consumption at current levels through the end of this decade, before fully phasing it out from electricity generation by 2040.

Coal remains a central pillar of Morocco’s energy system. At present, it accounts for close to 60% of the country’s electricity production, making Morocco the second-largest coal consumer in Africa after South Africa. This reliance reflects both historical investment choices and the need for a stable, dispatchable energy source in a system that is still integrating large volumes of renewable capacity.

Under the trajectory outlined by the IEA, Morocco’s coal consumption is expected to remain steady at around 10 million tonnes per year between 2025 and 2030. This stability stands in contrast to global trends, as worldwide coal demand is forecast to reach a historic peak of 8.85 billion tonnes in 2025 before gradually declining toward the end of the decade.

Moroccan authorities describe this path as a managed transition rather than a sudden disengagement. By maintaining coal use at a constant level in the short and medium term, the country aims to avoid disruptions to electricity supply while accelerating the deployment of renewable energy infrastructure.

Renewables as the engine of transition

Central to Morocco’s long-term strategy is the expansion of renewable energy. Solar and wind power are expected to provide more than half of all additional electricity capacity installed by 2030 compared with 2025. This expansion is designed to gradually reduce the share of fossil fuels in the national energy mix, allowing coal to be phased out without compromising grid stability.

Morocco has positioned renewable energy not only as a climate solution but also as a means of strengthening energy sovereignty. Coal is entirely imported, exposing the country to international price volatility and supply risks. By contrast, solar and wind resources are domestically available and increasingly cost-competitive.

Despite this shift, coal is expected to continue playing a strategic role over the next several years. Power plants fueled by coal provide baseload electricity that helps compensate for the variability of renewable generation, particularly during periods of weak wind or limited solar output. This explains why the national climate plan does not envisage an immediate reduction in coal consumption, but rather a plateau followed by a gradual decline after 2030.

A conditional exit by 2040

Morocco’s plan to eliminate coal from electricity generation by 2040 is closely linked to international financial support. The country has indicated that achieving its full climate agenda—including the coal phase-out—will require approximately $30 billion in investment. This funding would support grid upgrades, renewable capacity expansion, energy storage, and other measures needed to ensure system reliability.

In its submissions to the United Nations ahead of the COP30 climate conference, Morocco has distinguished between actions it can finance domestically and additional measures that depend on external assistance. Without sufficient funding, the country maintains its commitment to ending coal use, but without setting a firm deadline.

As an intermediate objective, Morocco aims to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 53% by 2035. The energy sector, and coal in particular, represents one of the largest sources of emissions, making the pace of transition a critical factor in meeting this target.

Morocco in a shifting global coal market

Morocco’s strategy is unfolding within a global coal market undergoing significant transformation. While 2025 is expected to mark a record year for global coal consumption, the IEA anticipates a decline of around 3% by 2030 compared with 2025 levels. This downturn is driven by rapid growth in renewable energy, steady expansion of nuclear power, and increasing availability of liquefied natural gas, which is often viewed as a lower-carbon alternative to coal.

Regional trends vary widely. Advanced economies are accelerating their coal exits, with the European Union, Japan, and the United States all recording steep declines in demand. In contrast, Asia-Pacific demand is expected to remain broadly stable, supported by growth in Southeast Asia and India that offsets declining consumption in China.

Africa’s coal demand is projected to grow modestly, primarily due to developments in South Africa. Within this context, Morocco stands out for its controlled and predictable consumption profile, reflecting a policy choice to prioritize stability while preparing for a longer-term transition.

Prices, emissions, and long-term challenges

Coal prices have eased significantly in 2025, with benchmark Newcastle coal averaging around $104 per tonne, down sharply from the previous year. For importing countries like Morocco, lower prices and reduced shipping costs offer short-term relief by easing import bills. However, policymakers continue to emphasize that price fluctuations do not alter the long-term objective of reducing reliance on coal.

From a climate perspective, the urgency remains high. Coal is still the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, responsible for more than 40% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions. Although its share of global electricity generation is projected to fall to about 34% in 2025—a historic low—experts widely agree that this level remains incompatible with international climate goals.

Morocco’s approach reflects this tension between immediate energy needs and long-term climate ambitions. By stabilizing coal consumption now, expanding renewables rapidly, and targeting a full exit by 2040, the country is attempting to navigate a complex transition—one that depends as much on financial resources and global cooperation as on domestic policy choices.