Casablanca – Turkey has entered into discussions with Morocco to secure fertilizer supplies as global markets face increasing pressure linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions affecting key maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. The move reflects a broader effort by Turkish authorities to protect the agricultural sector from potential supply shocks and rising input costs ahead of the next farming season.

According to multiple media reports, Turkey is engaging with Morocco, one of the world’s leading producers of phosphate-based fertilizers, to strengthen its supply channels. These talks come at a time when instability in the Middle East has begun to affect global trade flows, prompting several countries to reassess their sourcing strategies and secure alternative suppliers.

Strategic preparations ahead of the agricultural season

Although there is currently no immediate shortage of fertilizers in Turkey, authorities are taking precautionary measures to ensure market stability in the coming months. Existing stockpiles are expected to meet domestic demand until the autumn, providing a temporary buffer while negotiations and procurement efforts continue.

Turkey’s annual fertilizer demand is estimated at approximately 7 million tons, of which around 5 million tons are imported. Russia remains one of the country’s main suppliers, but recent developments have encouraged Ankara to diversify its sources. Morocco, due to its proximity and strong production capacity, is increasingly seen as a strategic partner in this effort.

The goal of diversification is not only to secure sufficient supply but also to stabilize prices in the domestic market, where fertilizer costs significantly influence agricultural productivity and food prices.

Rising prices increase pressure on farmers

Global disruptions have already led to a notable increase in fertilizer prices in Turkey. The price of urea has risen from about $561 per ton to more than $786 per ton. Similarly, diammonium phosphate prices have climbed to around $988 per ton.

These increases, ranging between 25% and 60% depending on the type of fertilizer, are largely driven by supply constraints and uncertainty in global markets. Higher fertilizer costs are expected to raise production expenses for farmers, which could eventually impact crop output and food prices if the trend continues.

Industry representatives have indicated that while supply levels remain adequate for now, sustained price increases could pose challenges for agricultural production in the medium term.

Government measures to stabilize the market

In response to these developments, Turkish authorities have introduced several measures aimed at controlling price increases and ensuring sufficient availability in the domestic market. These include suspending fertilizer exports and removing customs duties on certain types of mineral and organic fertilizers.

By limiting exports, the government aims to retain more supply within the country, while the removal of import duties is intended to facilitate access to foreign products at lower costs. Together, these measures are designed to ease pressure on farmers and maintain market balance ahead of the next agricultural cycle.

Impact of regional tensions on global supply chains

The current situation is closely linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly those affecting the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global trade. Disruptions in this corridor have had a direct impact on the movement of fertilizers and raw materials, contributing to a contraction of nearly 40% in global supply chains.

Gulf countries play a central role in the production and export of fertilizers, as well as in the transit of goods from other producing regions. As a result, any instability in the area quickly translates into supply shortages and price increases on international markets.

In response, many countries have started to build up reserves and seek alternative suppliers to reduce their exposure to these risks.

Morocco strengthens its position as a key supplier

Amid these global shifts, Morocco has reinforced its position as a reliable and stable supplier of fertilizers. With significant phosphate reserves and an established production infrastructure, the country is well placed to meet growing international demand.

Several countries, including India, have already moved to strengthen cooperation with Morocco to secure their fertilizer needs while reducing dependence on more volatile supply routes. Turkey’s recent approach follows a similar strategy, highlighting Morocco’s increasing importance in global agricultural supply chains.

Outlook for the coming months

The outlook for the fertilizer market will depend largely on geopolitical developments and the stability of key trade routes. For Turkey, ensuring sufficient supply and containing price increases will remain essential to support agricultural production and maintain food security.

Ongoing discussions with Morocco represent a strategic step toward diversifying supply sources and improving resilience against external shocks. If successful, these efforts could help Turkey navigate current market uncertainties while strengthening the long-term stability of its agricultural sector.

At the same time, continued monitoring of market conditions and targeted policy measures are expected to play a crucial role in mitigating the impact of global disruptions on farmers and consumers alike.