Casablanca – Morocco’s trade deficit continued to expand in early 2026, reflecting mounting external and domestic pressures on the country’s economy. According to the latest data from the Foreign Exchange Office, the deficit reached approximately $5.32 billion by the end of February, marking a 1.7% increase compared to the same period in 2025.

This trend comes despite a modest improvement in exports and is increasingly influenced by global factors, particularly the recent rise in fuel prices, which is expected to further strain Morocco’s trade balance in the coming months.

Imports continue to drive the deficit

The widening trade gap is primarily driven by the steady increase in imports, which rose by 1.9% year-on-year to approximately $13.03 billion. This reflects sustained domestic demand as well as continued reliance on imported goods, especially in industrial and consumer sectors.

Imports of raw materials surged by 32.9% to about $0.82 billion, highlighting strong industrial demand. Capital goods imports also increased by 14.5% to approximately $3.25 billion, signaling ongoing investment in infrastructure and production capacity. Meanwhile, consumer goods imports rose by 9.3%, reaching around $3.34 billion, indicating stable household consumption.

Some categories, however, recorded declines. Energy and lubricant imports fell by 15.7% to approximately $1.61 billion, while food imports dropped by 14.4% to about $1.46 billion. Semi-finished goods also declined by 5.5%, totaling roughly $2.51 billion.

Despite these decreases, the overall rise in imports has continued to outpace export growth, maintaining pressure on the trade balance.

Rising fuel prices add new pressure

Recent increases in fuel prices are expected to significantly impact Morocco’s external accounts. As a net importer of energy, Morocco remains highly exposed to global oil market fluctuations.

At the start of April 2026, fuel prices in the domestic market increased sharply, with diesel and gasoline recording notable rises. This surge is linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted supply chains and pushed global oil prices higher.

Higher fuel costs directly translate into a larger import bill for energy products, which is likely to reverse the recent decline in energy imports and contribute to a further widening of the trade deficit in the coming months.

In addition, rising fuel prices tend to increase transportation and logistics costs, which in turn raises the overall cost of imported goods. This creates inflationary pressures and reinforces Morocco’s dependence on external markets.

Export growth remains uneven

On the export side, Morocco recorded a modest increase of 2%, with total exports reaching approximately $7.72 billion by the end of February 2026.

This growth was largely supported by strong performances in key industrial sectors. The aeronautics industry expanded by 16.5%, reaching about $0.54 billion, while the automotive sector grew by 10.3% to approximately $2.68 billion. Exports of electronics and electrical products also rose by 2.5%, totaling around $0.28 billion.

However, this positive trend was partially offset by declines in traditional export sectors. Phosphates and their derivatives saw a decrease of 16.5%, while textiles and leather exports fell by 9.2%, and agriculture and agri-food products declined by 3.7%.

This uneven performance highlights the ongoing challenge of diversifying Morocco’s export base and reducing vulnerability to sector-specific fluctuations.

Coverage ratio and services sector

The coverage ratio improved slightly by 0.1 percentage points to reach 59.2%, meaning that exports continue to cover just over half of total imports.

Meanwhile, the services sector provided some relief to the overall external balance. The services surplus increased by 14.4%, exceeding approximately $2.71 billion. This growth was driven by a 13.3% rise in service exports, which reached about $5.23 billion, alongside a 12.1% increase in service imports to around $2.52 billion.

The strong performance of services, particularly tourism and transport, continues to play a stabilizing role in Morocco’s external accounts.

Structural challenges and outlook

The latest figures confirm that Morocco’s trade deficit remains largely structural. Strong domestic demand, combined with dependence on imported energy, equipment, and intermediate goods, continues to weigh on the trade balance.

Looking ahead, the recent rise in fuel prices is expected to intensify these pressures. Higher energy costs will likely increase import expenses and could further widen the deficit if global oil prices remain elevated.

Economic forecasts already suggest a gradual increase in the trade deficit as a share of GDP, from 19.1% in 2024 to 19.8% in 2025, and 20.1% in 2026, reflecting persistent external imbalances.

Policy priorities

In response to these challenges, accelerating domestic industrial production remains a key priority. Expanding local manufacturing, particularly in sectors that rely heavily on imports, could help reduce external dependence.

At the same time, continued investment in renewable energy is essential to limit exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets. Strengthening export diversification and enhancing competitiveness in high-value industries such as automotive, aeronautics, and electronics will also be critical.

While Morocco has made notable progress in developing its export sectors, the combined impact of rising fuel prices and structural economic factors suggests that reducing the trade deficit will remain a major challenge in the near term.