Casablanca – Morocco’s natural gas imports have shown a pattern of sharp fluctuations since the beginning of 2026, marked by alternating phases of contraction and strong rebounds. Recent data from multiple energy tracking platforms indicate that the market experienced a significant recovery in May, followed by renewed stabilization in early June, reflecting a return toward seasonal normality after months of disruption and demand shifts in the electricity sector.

In May 2026, gas imports recorded a strong month-on-month increase of 106.4%, reaching approximately 778 gigawatt-hours (GWh), compared with 377 GWh in April. This rebound followed three months of gradual decline and volatility, after imports stood at 822 GWh in January, fell to 572 GWh in February, slightly recovered to 583 GWh in March, and then dropped sharply in April. The May surge therefore marked one of the strongest monthly recoveries of the year so far.

This pattern was broadly confirmed by multiple data sources, including specialized energy platforms and national economic monitoring reports, which all pointed to the same trajectory: a winter-to-spring decline driven by temporary demand changes, followed by a sharp rebound as supply conditions normalized.

Despite this monthly recovery, cumulative figures show that Morocco’s gas imports for the first five months of 2026 reached around 3.13 terawatt-hours (TWh), down from approximately 3.89 TWh during the same period in 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of nearly 19.5%. This suggests that the May rebound, while strong, was not sufficient to fully offset earlier contractions.

The volatility in gas demand and imports is closely linked to shifts in Morocco’s electricity production mix. Exceptional rainfall during the spring period significantly increased hydroelectric generation, which rose by more than 500% compared with a reference period, according to earlier energy assessments. As reservoirs filled and hydropower output surged, the need for gas-fired thermal generation declined, leading to reduced gas imports during March and April. This seasonal substitution effect is considered one of the main drivers behind the temporary contraction rather than structural demand weakness.

At the same time, Morocco’s energy system remains heavily dependent on external supply routes. The Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline (GME) continues to serve as the principal corridor for gas imports, after the cessation of Algerian pipeline flows at the end of 2021, which previously covered a large share of national demand. Today, the pipeline functions primarily through reverse flows and regasified liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped from international markets and processed via Spain before being transported to Morocco.

Spain has become a central hub in this supply chain, both as a trading partner and as a regasification gateway. Recent estimates indicate that Morocco absorbs roughly 23.6% of Spain’s gas exports, making it the second-largest destination after France. Over the course of 2026, Morocco imported approximately 278 million cubic meters (Mm³) of gas via this route, confirming its strategic importance in the country’s energy security structure.

In parallel, the geography of Morocco’s gas suppliers has continued to diversify. Recent data indicate that imports originate from a mix of international sources, including the United States and Russia, alongside contractual deliveries linked to global energy companies such as Shell. This diversification reflects Morocco’s broader strategy of reducing dependency on any single supplier and increasing flexibility in procurement.

However, the supply chain has also experienced intermittent disruptions. Reports from energy monitoring platforms noted several interruptions in March and April, including multi-day stoppages and partial resumption phases. These disruptions contributed to short-term volatility in import volumes but did not result in sustained shortages, as alternative supply routes and inventory adjustments helped stabilize the system.

Beyond natural gas, Morocco’s broader energy balance has also come under pressure in 2026. Electricity imports increased significantly during the first quarter of the year, rising by more than 60%, while domestic electricity production declined slightly. At the same time, national electricity demand continued to grow, with consumption rising by over 6% and net demand increasing by more than 3%. This widening gap between supply and demand has reinforced reliance on both imported electricity and gas-fired generation during peak periods.

Despite these pressures, the overall energy system has shown signs of adjustment rather than structural imbalance. The return of higher gas imports in May and early June suggests a normalization of supply patterns as hydropower output stabilizes and industrial demand regains momentum. Early June figures, which show imports of around 26 Mm³ in the first days of the month—slightly above the same period last year—support this interpretation.

Looking ahead, Morocco continues to pursue a dual strategy: maintaining short-term reliance on imported gas through established corridors such as the GME, while simultaneously investing in domestic energy development and long-term infrastructure projects. These include the Tendrara gas field, expected to begin producing up to 100 Mm³ per year, and participation in planned regional pipeline projects aimed at connecting West African gas reserves to European markets via the Atlantic coast.

At the same time, the government’s broader energy roadmap targets a rising share of renewables in electricity generation, with a goal exceeding 52% by 2030. However, fossil fuels, particularly coal and natural gas, continue to play a dominant role in the current mix, underscoring the transitional nature of Morocco’s energy system.

The data from early 2026 illustrate a market characterized by short-term volatility driven by weather conditions, geopolitical tensions, and shifting electricity demand, but also by increasing structural diversification and improved resilience in supply routes.