Casablanca – Morocco’s citrus sector is expected to enter a new phase of growth during the 2025–2026 agricultural season, supported by favorable weather conditions, expanding productive capacity, and continued public support measures. According to recent projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), both production and exports are forecast to increase, reinforcing Morocco’s position as a key citrus supplier in international markets.

The outlook for the season reflects a recovery momentum following several years of climate-related challenges. Improved rainfall patterns, combined with the maturation of newly planted orchards, are contributing to better yields across most citrus categories. As a result, total citrus output is projected to remain above the average of the past five years, even if it does not yet return to the historic peak recorded in the 2018–2019 season.

Mandarins and clementines drive production growth

Mandarins and clementines are expected to remain the backbone of Morocco’s citrus sector. Production of these varieties is forecast to reach approximately 1.15 million tons during the 2025–2026 season, representing a 4% increase compared with the previous campaign. This growth reflects both improved orchard productivity and the expansion of cultivated areas that are now entering full production.

These varieties continue to dominate Moroccan citrus exports due to their strong demand in international markets, particularly in Europe and Russia. Producers also report improved fruit sizing, especially for export-preferred calibers, which is expected to enhance marketability and price stability during the season.

Domestic consumption of mandarins and clementines is also projected to rise. According to USDA estimates, local consumption could reach 600,000 tons, up 7% year on year. This increase reflects steady domestic demand and improved availability throughout the season.

Orange output shows limited but stable growth

Orange production is forecast to increase modestly, with volumes expected to reach around 970,000 tons, marking a 1% annual rise. While growth in this segment remains limited, production levels are expected to stay stable, supported by improved yields and consistent orchard management.

Exports of fresh oranges are projected to remain broadly unchanged at approximately 85,000 tons. The slower expansion of orange exports is largely attributed to strong competition from other major suppliers, particularly Egypt and Turkey, which benefit from lower production costs and aggressive pricing strategies in key destination markets.

Despite these challenges, Morocco continues to invest in downstream processing to add value to its orange production. Orange juice output is expected to rise to 6,500 tons, driven by the expansion of industrial processing capacity. This development is expected to help reduce Morocco’s reliance on imported juice concentrates and strengthen local value chains.

Lemons and limes record stronger growth rates

Lemon and lime production is projected to reach 48,000 tons during the 2025–2026 season, reflecting a 6% increase compared with the previous year. Although this segment represents a smaller share of overall citrus production, it is showing steady growth.

Domestic consumption of lemons is expected to increase slightly to around 38,000 tons, while export volumes are projected to remain stable at approximately 10,000 tons. West African countries are expected to remain the main export destinations, followed by the European Union, reflecting established trade flows and logistical proximity.

Export markets expand beyond traditional destinations

Morocco’s citrus exports continue to be concentrated in the European Union and Russia, which remain the sector’s primary markets. However, export geography is gradually evolving. Shipments to West African markets—particularly Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire—have increased in recent seasons and are expected to continue growing during the 2025–2026 campaign.

This diversification strategy is helping reduce dependence on a limited number of destinations and offers new growth opportunities, especially in fast-growing regional markets. Nevertheless, Moroccan exporters face increasing competition during the early export window, notably from late-season Chilean citrus varieties that enter international markets between November and December, directly overlapping with Morocco’s strategic export period.

Public support and investment remain central to sector resilience

Public policy continues to play a central role in supporting Morocco’s citrus industry. Authorities have maintained a range of incentive measures aimed at boosting production, supporting exports, and improving the competitiveness of small and medium-sized farmers.

Export premiums are granted based on destination markets, while targeted assistance is provided to small and medium producers through aggregation projects. Organic citrus producers benefit from higher subsidy levels, reflecting Morocco’s broader strategy to promote more sustainable and structured agricultural practices.

Phytosanitary support has also been strengthened. Measures such as mass trapping techniques to combat the Mediterranean fruit fly are subsidized at nearly $104 per hectare, helping producers reduce crop losses and meet export quality standards.

In addition, the state covers 30% of the cost of constructing new packing stations, supporting improvements in post-harvest handling and export logistics. Export subsidies are also available for citrus shipments to key markets, including the European Union, the United Kingdom, Russia, Ukraine, China, and Gulf countries.

Outlook for the 2025–2026 season

Despite a slightly delayed start to the export season due to slower fruit maturation, overall prospects for Morocco’s citrus sector remain positive. Production growth, expanding processing capacity, and market diversification are expected to support sector performance in the coming months.

While competition in international markets remains intense, particularly for oranges, Morocco’s continued investment in quality, infrastructure, and market access is expected to help sustain its role as a major player in the global citrus industry during the 2025–2026 season.