Casablanca – Morocco’s government has unveiled the broad outlines of its 2026 Finance Bill, setting forth an ambitious agenda aimed at sustaining economic growth, reducing social and regional disparities, and consolidating the foundations of the “social state.” Against the backdrop of a shifting global economic environment, the plan combines high investment commitments with structural reforms, while confronting persistent employment, fiscal, and development challenges.

According to the guidance note issued by Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch to ministerial departments, the Finance Bill prioritizes four strategic pillars: bolstering economic momentum, achieving balanced integration between economic development and social and territorial justice, accelerating structural reforms, and maintaining public finance stability.

The government’s projections target a growth rate of 4.5% in 2026, a budget deficit reduced to 3% of GDP, and a public debt ratio contained at 65.8% of GDP. These goals rest on a mix of large-scale infrastructure projects, sectoral development programs, and measures aimed at enhancing competitiveness and resilience in key industries.

Major investments to drive growth
The 2026 blueprint includes some of the largest investment packages in recent years. Plans call for $16.49 billion to expand Royal Air Maroc’s fleet, $9.90 billion for the Kenitra–Marrakech high-speed rail line, and $2.58 billion for airport modernization. Parallel to these transport initiatives, Morocco is pushing forward with strategic energy investments — particularly in natural gas infrastructure and green hydrogen — to strengthen energy sovereignty and position the country as a global player in the energy transition.

Officials also see major sporting events, including the 2030 FIFA World Cup, as opportunities to attract investment, boost tourism, and stimulate regional development.

Bridging the “two-speed Morocco” gap
One of the most prominent themes in the government’s plan — echoed in recent royal speeches — is the need to address disparities between Morocco’s most developed urban hubs and under-served rural or peripheral regions. While areas such as Casablanca, Rabat, and Marrakech have benefited extensively from public investment, other regions lag behind in infrastructure, services, and economic opportunities.

Economic analysts argue that tackling this imbalance will require targeted public spending, particularly in marginalized regions, coupled with job creation initiatives tailored to local economic potential. The government intends to move from isolated, short-term interventions to coordinated territorial development programs that integrate infrastructure, education, healthcare, and environmental management.

Employment: The pressing challenge
Despite optimistic growth projections, unemployment remains a major concern. Official figures place the national unemployment rate at over 13%, with particularly high rates among youth and university graduates. Experts warn that even 4.5% growth will not be enough to absorb the expanding labor force, especially with weak performance in the agricultural sector and ongoing challenges in diversifying industry.

The informal economy, estimated to account for around 70% of economic activity, also complicates employment policy and tax revenue collection. Reducing its dominance is seen as essential for improving productivity, expanding the tax base, and integrating more workers into the formal economy.

Fiscal pressures and structural obstacles
While the government seeks to maintain macroeconomic stability, it faces significant fiscal pressures. Large infrastructure and social protection commitments come at a time when tax revenues remain limited, the trade deficit persists, and public debt levels are already high. Analysts note that hosting the World Cup, upgrading transportation infrastructure, and funding major energy projects will require careful prioritization and efficient execution to avoid overstretching public finances.

The 2026 Finance Bill also signals a shift toward direct, conditional social assistance programs targeted at vulnerable families. This marks a departure from previous approaches, framing social justice not just as a corrective to inequality but as a direct outcome of inclusive economic growth and investment.

Calls for realism and political context
Experts caution that external factors — from global commodity price volatility to geopolitical tensions — could derail projections. They also stress the importance of considering the political context, as 2026 coincides with Morocco’s scheduled legislative elections. This timing could influence budget priorities and the pace of reform implementation.

Some observers have also questioned whether all aspects of the guidance note fully align with constitutional provisions governing the preparation of finance bills, pointing to potential procedural discrepancies.

A crossroads for policy implementation
The government’s challenge is to translate its ambitious vision into tangible results within a limited timeframe. For some analysts, the stakes are high: success would mean consolidating Morocco’s trajectory toward sustainable, inclusive growth; failure could delay key objectives until the next political cycle.

The Finance Bill’s emphasis on regional equity, employment, and social protection reflects a recognition that Morocco’s economic emergence must be matched by concrete improvements in quality of life across all regions. Whether the country can balance its investment-driven growth strategy with the urgent need for job creation, fiscal discipline, and equitable development will become clear as the 2026 budget moves from planning to execution.