Casablanca – In a shift driven by global market dynamics and adverse weather conditions, Morocco has increasingly turned to Russia as its primary supplier of soft wheat. Recent data shows that Russia has cemented its place as the leading wheat exporter to the North African nation, displacing long-standing supplier France.

According to the National Federation of Grain and Legume Traders (FNCL), Moroccan wheat imports from Russia surged to 63,500 tons in September 2024. This represented a significant portion of the total 209,761 tons imported during the month. Lithuania, Latvia, and Ukraine followed as key suppliers, with France notably absent from the list for the first time in years.

France’s decline in wheat exports

For years, France held a dominant position in Morocco’s wheat market, supplying the bulk of the country’s soft wheat needs. However, an unusually rainy winter and lack of sunlight severely impacted France’s 2024 harvest. This year, French soft wheat production is projected to drop by nearly 25%, with total output estimated at 26.3 million tons, one of the weakest harvests in the past four decades.

This poor yield has directly impacted France’s ability to meet Morocco’s demand. During the same period, French wheat exports plummeted to just 33,000 tons in August, after briefly regaining its top position in July with 150,882 tons. In contrast, Russia shipped 192,950 tons in August, comfortably securing its place as Morocco’s largest supplier.

Jean-François Lapie, a representative of France’s grain industry, confirmed at a recent conference in Casablanca that French wheat sales to Morocco would drop nearly 50% this year, from 2.8 million tons in 2023 to just 1.5 million tons in 2024. The decline highlights the severity of France’s agricultural challenges, which have left traditional partners like Morocco looking elsewhere for reliable wheat supplies.

Russia dominates the market

Russia’s dominance in Morocco’s wheat market has been steadily growing, driven by competitive pricing and higher availability. In September alone, Russia accounted for the largest share of Morocco’s wheat imports, surpassing not only France but also Lithuania (62,451 tons), Latvia (60,510 tons), and Ukraine (23,300 tons).

Since May 2024, Russian wheat exports to Morocco have outpaced French shipments, reflecting a trend that shows no sign of slowing. Over the past three months, Morocco has imported a total of 405,000 tons of wheat from Russia, more than double the 183,882 tons it sourced from France.

The global context

Russia’s strong performance in Morocco’s wheat market comes despite a slight drop in its overall wheat production this year. Russian agricultural consultancy Sovecon predicts the country will harvest 82.5 million tons of wheat in 2024, down from 91.4 million tons in 2023. Despite this reduction, Russia remains well-positioned to dominate key markets, including Morocco, due to its competitive pricing. Russian wheat is currently priced at around $215 per ton on global markets, $23 less than French wheat.

As Morocco faces its own agricultural challenges, including a severe drought that has slashed domestic grain production by 43%, the country’s reliance on imports has grown. Moroccan officials estimate the need for 5 million quintals of wheat imports to cover the shortfall caused by drought.

Looking ahead

With France grappling with one of its weakest wheat harvests in decades, and Morocco’s demand for wheat imports remaining high, Russia’s position as Morocco’s top wheat supplier seems secure for the foreseeable future. The shift reflects broader trends in the global grain market, where countries like Morocco are increasingly diversifying their sources of vital food staples in response to fluctuating supplies and prices.

As the market dynamics continue to evolve, it remains to be seen how Morocco will balance its reliance on traditional European suppliers like France with new and growing partnerships with countries such as Russia, Lithuania, and Ukraine. However, for now, Russia appears poised to remain Morocco’s go-to supplier for wheat, ensuring a stable flow of this crucial commodity despite global agricultural challenges.