Casablanca – Morocco is expected to accelerate the expansion of its renewable energy capacity over the next six years, as growing industrial demand, private investment and concerns over energy security reshape the country’s electricity sector. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised upward its forecast for Morocco, projecting nearly 4.8 gigawatts (GW) of additional net renewable capacity between 2026 and 2031, reflecting stronger prospects for solar power, corporate electricity purchase agreements and large-scale industrial projects.

The revised outlook represents an increase of approximately 1.45 GW compared with the agency’s previous projection for Morocco by 2030. It also points to a significant acceleration compared with the 2020–2025 period, when the country added approximately 1.5 GW of renewable capacity.

The adjustment comes as Morocco seeks to diversify its electricity mix, reduce exposure to imported fossil fuels and meet rising domestic consumption. Renewable energy is increasingly becoming part of the country’s industrial development strategy, with major companies looking to secure long-term electricity supplies while reducing the carbon footprint of their production processes.

According to the IEA’s Renewables 2026 – Analysis and Forecasts to 2031 report, published on November 6, the improvement in Morocco’s outlook is mainly attributable to two developments: the expansion of corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) and progress on OCP Group’s renewable energy programme.

These factors are changing the structure of investment in the sector. Rather than depending exclusively on projects developed through conventional public procurement arrangements, Morocco is seeing greater participation from industrial companies that directly support the development of renewable electricity generation.

Industrial companies become major drivers of investment

Industrial demand is emerging as one of the main factors behind Morocco’s renewable energy expansion. Mining, fertilizer production, chemical processing, cement manufacturing and water desalination all require substantial electricity supplies, creating opportunities for additional solar and wind installations.

OCP Group occupies a particularly important position in this transition. The phosphate and fertilizer producer is developing a programme exceeding 2 GW of renewable energy capacity to support its mining operations, chemical platforms and desalination facilities. The programme forms part of its objective of achieving carbon neutrality by 2040.

The group’s energy requirements are closely connected to its broader industrial development plans. Fertilizer manufacturing and phosphate processing require significant amounts of electricity, while the expansion of desalination facilities adds further pressure on energy consumption. Securing renewable electricity could therefore help the company reduce emissions while improving the long-term management of its energy costs.

A first photovoltaic phase with a capacity of 202 megawatt-peak has already been announced as operational across three Moroccan sites. Further installations are expected to contribute to the programme’s overall capacity.

Renewable ammonia is another area that could generate additional demand for clean electricity. Producing ammonia using renewable hydrogen requires substantial quantities of renewable power, making the availability of competitive solar and wind electricity an important condition for developing this activity.

Other industrial sectors are also exploring ways to increase their use of renewable energy. Cement production and water desalination are particularly relevant because of their relatively high electricity requirements. As these activities expand, companies may increasingly turn to direct electricity purchasing agreements to secure supplies from renewable energy producers.

Corporate PPAs are becoming an important financing mechanism in this context. Under these agreements, companies commit to purchasing electricity from renewable energy projects over an agreed period. Such arrangements can provide developers with greater revenue visibility, facilitate financing and allow industrial consumers to secure electricity under longer-term contractual conditions.

The IEA expects distributed solar installations to account for approximately 2.5 GW of Morocco’s anticipated additional renewable capacity, while private power purchase agreements could contribute nearly 1.6 GW. Together, these two segments would represent more than 85% of the new capacity included in the agency’s central forecast.

This distribution highlights the growing importance of businesses and private electricity consumers in determining the direction of investment. It also suggests that rooftop solar installations, industrial photovoltaic facilities and privately financed renewable projects will play a substantial role in the country’s energy transition.

Energy security adds urgency to the transition

The improvement in Morocco’s renewable energy outlook comes at a time when energy security has become a major concern for governments and businesses worldwide. Disruptions in international energy markets, fluctuations in oil and gas prices and geopolitical tensions have highlighted the risks associated with dependence on imported fossil fuels.

Morocco remains exposed to these external developments because a substantial share of its conventional energy requirements is met through imports. Increasing domestic renewable electricity production could help reduce this vulnerability, limit the impact of international fuel price fluctuations and improve the country’s long-term energy independence.

The issue is becoming more pressing as electricity consumption continues to rise. Economic expansion, population growth, urbanisation and the development of energy-intensive activities are increasing pressure on the national electricity system.

The growing use of air conditioning, particularly during periods of high temperatures, is contributing to peak demand. Water desalination projects, which are increasingly important to Morocco’s water security strategy, will also require additional electricity supplies. The expansion of data centres and industrial facilities is expected to add further demand in the coming years.

Morocco’s electricity consumption reached approximately 49 terawatt-hours in 2025, following several years of growth. The country also recorded a new electricity demand peak of approximately 8,400 megawatts during the summer of 2026, illustrating the challenge of maintaining sufficient generation capacity as consumption increases.

Against this background, renewable energy investment is becoming closely linked to economic competitiveness. Access to reliable and competitively priced electricity is increasingly important for attracting industrial investment, supporting export-oriented activities and encouraging the development of new production facilities.

Morocco’s renewable energy ambitions also include expanding installed renewable capacity to approximately 15 GW by 2030. Achieving this objective will require continued investment in solar and wind generation, alongside improvements in the infrastructure needed to distribute and manage electricity.

Storage and grid infrastructure will determine the pace of expansion

Despite the positive forecasts, increasing installed renewable capacity does not automatically guarantee a corresponding increase in electricity supplied to consumers. Solar and wind generation depend on weather conditions, creating variations in electricity production throughout the day and across different seasons. This makes energy storage and network flexibility essential components of Morocco’s transition.

The National Office of Electricity and Drinking Water (ONEE) has outlined plans to develop approximately 2.6 GW of storage capacity. The programme includes battery-based solutions and pumped-storage hydropower facilities, which can help balance electricity supply and demand.

Battery storage can absorb surplus electricity during periods of strong solar production and release it when generation declines or consumption increases. Pumped-storage facilities perform a similar function by using excess electricity to pump water into elevated reservoirs before releasing it through turbines when additional power is required.

These technologies could become increasingly important as Morocco adds large quantities of photovoltaic capacity. Without sufficient storage, periods of high solar production may create pressure on the electricity network, particularly when generation exceeds immediate consumption.

Transmission infrastructure represents another major requirement. New renewable installations must be connected to the national grid, while existing networks need to be reinforced to transport electricity between production sites and major consumption centres.

The geographical distribution of renewable resources also makes network investment important. Solar and wind projects are frequently developed in areas where natural conditions are favourable, but these locations may be distant from industrial centres and densely populated areas.

Improving electricity transmission and cross-border interconnections could therefore help Morocco make better use of its renewable resources. Stronger connections with neighbouring electricity systems could also provide additional flexibility by allowing electricity exchanges when domestic production and demand are not aligned.

The timing of these investments will influence whether the country can translate its planned renewable capacity into reliable electricity supplies. Financing, land availability, administrative approvals and connection agreements will also determine how quickly individual projects move from planning to operation.

Private financing becomes increasingly important

The growing role of corporate power purchase agreements reflects a broader change in how renewable energy projects are financed and developed.

Traditionally, large electricity generation projects have relied heavily on public procurement frameworks, utility-led investment and long-term agreements with electricity buyers. Corporate PPAs introduce additional financing opportunities by allowing industrial consumers to become direct participants in renewable energy development.

For project developers, these agreements can reduce uncertainty over future electricity sales. Long-term commitments from financially stable companies can improve the conditions for obtaining bank financing and securing investment.

For industrial consumers, purchasing renewable electricity can provide greater visibility over future energy expenditure and support environmental commitments, particularly for businesses operating in international markets where carbon emissions and production standards are receiving greater attention.

This mechanism could be particularly relevant for Morocco’s phosphate and fertilizer activities, as well as its automotive, chemical and other export-oriented sectors.

However, the expansion of private agreements will require clear contractual arrangements, transparent pricing mechanisms and predictable regulations governing electricity production, transmission and supply. The ability of private producers to connect their installations to the national network will remain an important factor.

The IEA’s forecast should also be interpreted as a central scenario rather than a guarantee that all anticipated projects will be completed. Renewable energy developments must still secure financing, land, permits, electricity purchase contracts and grid connections. Delays in any of these areas could affect the volume of capacity commissioned before 2031.

Regional competition accelerates renewable investment

Morocco’s revised projections form part of a much broader expansion of renewable energy across the Middle East and North Africa. The IEA expects the MENA region to add approximately 122 GW of renewable capacity between 2026 and 2031, bringing its total installed capacity close to 200 GW. This would represent more than a doubling of the region’s existing renewable capacity.

Saudi Arabia is expected to account for approximately 60 GW of the additional installations, representing almost half of the projected regional expansion. The United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Morocco and other markets are also expected to contribute to the growth.

Solar photovoltaic technology will dominate investment across the region. Large-scale solar projects are expected to account for approximately 80% of new renewable capacity, while onshore wind is projected to contribute around 13%.

By 2031, solar power could represent approximately 75% of installed renewable capacity in MENA. This concentration reflects the region’s strong solar resources and the increasing economic attractiveness of photovoltaic installations.

For Morocco, regional developments create both opportunities and competitive challenges. The country can benefit from the expansion of renewable energy investment, particularly through the development of industrial projects that require large quantities of clean electricity. At the same time, it will need to maintain an attractive investment framework to compete for financing, technology and international partnerships.

The development of renewable ammonia and other products linked to low-carbon electricity could also create opportunities to expand Morocco’s industrial activities and strengthen its position in international supply chains.

Global expansion reshapes the electricity mix

The international outlook reinforces the scale of the transformation expected over the next six years. The IEA forecasts approximately 4,800 GW of additional renewable electricity capacity worldwide between 2026 and 2031, representing a 57% increase compared with the previous six-year period.

Solar photovoltaic power is expected to account for more than three-quarters of these additions, with onshore wind representing the second-largest contributor. Continued investment, technological improvements and declining equipment costs are supporting the expansion of renewable generation in both developed and emerging economies.

China is expected to remain the largest contributor to global capacity growth, although its share of new installations is projected to decline from more than 60% in 2025 to an average of approximately 53% during the forecast period.

India is expected to become the second-largest market for renewable energy expansion, with its total installed renewable capacity projected to more than double by 2031.

One of the most significant changes concerns the geographical distribution of investment. For the first time, renewable capacity additions in emerging and developing economies outside China are expected to match those in advanced economies between 2026 and 2031. Growing concerns about energy security are among the factors encouraging this shift.

The expansion will also change the global electricity generation mix. Renewable sources are expected to increase their share of worldwide electricity production from 33% in 2025 to nearly 45% in 2031. Solar photovoltaic power is projected to overtake hydropower in 2029, becoming the world’s largest renewable source of electricity generation.

For Morocco, the IEA’s revised forecast points to stronger prospects for renewable energy investment, particularly as industrial companies become more directly involved in financing and purchasing clean electricity. Nevertheless, the country’s ability to reach nearly 4.8 GW of additional capacity will depend on translating announced projects into operational installations and ensuring that electricity networks and storage facilities develop at a comparable pace. The next six years will therefore be important in determining whether renewable energy can meet a growing share of Morocco’s electricity requirements while supporting industrial competitiveness and reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels.