Casablanca – The implementation of new rules of origin within the framework of the African Continental Free Trade Area marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of Africa’s automotive industry. By introducing a unified definition of “Made in Africa,” the agreement lays the groundwork for deeper industrial integration and the development of regional value chains across the continent. In this context, Morocco is consolidating its position as one of the leading automotive hubs in Africa.

A structured framework for continental integration

The new rules, which came into force in mid-February 2026, establish clear criteria for determining the origin of automotive products. Vehicles must now contain at least 40% African-origin components to qualify for preferential tariff treatment under AfCFTA. At the same time, up to 60% of inputs can be imported from outside the continent, with a planned review of this threshold within five years.

This harmonized framework addresses a long-standing challenge that has hindered intra-African industrial cooperation. Previously, the absence of common standards forced manufacturers to navigate fragmented national regulations, limiting the development of cross-border supply chains. The new system offers greater regulatory clarity and predictability, which is expected to encourage investment and facilitate the expansion of production networks across multiple countries.

Morocco at the forefront of automotive production

Within this evolving landscape, Morocco stands out as one of the best-positioned countries to benefit from the new framework. The country has built a strong automotive ecosystem over more than two decades, supported by sustained industrial policies and increasing integration into global value chains.

In 2025, Morocco accounted for approximately 47.2% of total automotive production in Africa, significantly ahead of South Africa, which represented 43.7%. Other countries, including Algeria and Egypt, contributed much smaller shares to the continent’s output.

Key industrial platforms in Tangier and Kenitra have played a central role in this performance. These hubs benefit from advanced infrastructure, efficient logistics networks, and strong export capabilities, enabling Morocco to position itself as a major supplier to both regional and international markets.

Growth prospects for production and sales

According to projections by BMI Fitch Solutions, Africa’s automotive industry is expected to maintain steady growth in the coming years. Production is forecast to reach approximately 1.5 million vehicles in 2026, with the potential to increase to around 2.2 million units by 2035.

On the demand side, vehicle sales across the continent are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.7%, reaching an estimated 3.4 million units by 2035. In the shorter term, sales could approach 2 million vehicles in 2026, reflecting a gradual expansion of consumer demand.

Morocco’s domestic market is also expected to follow this upward trend. After achieving record sales of more than 235,000 vehicles in 2025, the market is projected to exceed 250,000 units in 2026 and could reach approximately 400,000 annual sales by 2035, supported by economic growth, rising urbanization, and increased vehicle affordability.

Uneven distribution of benefits

Despite the positive outlook, the benefits of the new rules are expected to be unevenly distributed across African countries. Economies with established industrial bases—particularly Morocco and South Africa—are likely to capture the majority of short-term gains due to their existing production capacity, skilled workforce, and integrated supplier networks.

In contrast, emerging markets such as Kenya and Ghana may require additional time to fully integrate into the continental automotive value chain. These countries face challenges related to infrastructure, industrial capacity, and investment levels, although opportunities remain in component manufacturing and raw material processing.

Structural challenges and market constraints

While the AfCFTA framework provides new opportunities, several structural challenges could affect its implementation. Complex administrative procedures may limit the participation of small and medium-sized enterprises, reducing the inclusiveness of the new system. Additionally, the opening of borders increases the risk of re-exports and inaccurate origin declarations, which could undermine trust among market participants.

Demand-side constraints also remain significant. Limited purchasing power, restricted access to financing, and the widespread presence of used vehicles continue to weigh on the expansion of the new car market in many African countries. In some cases, pressure from used-car import networks further complicates efforts to develop local manufacturing and formal trade channels.

Toward a more integrated automotive ecosystem

The success of AfCFTA’s automotive rules will depend on effective implementation across member states. This includes improving coordination between governments, modernizing customs systems, and aligning industrial policies to support regional integration.

Over the long term, the agreement has the potential to transform Africa’s automotive sector by encouraging local production, strengthening supply chains, and reducing dependence on imports. For Morocco, this represents an opportunity not only to consolidate its leadership but also to expand its role within a more interconnected continental market.

As Africa moves toward deeper economic integration, the combination of regulatory harmonization and industrial development could position the continent as an increasingly competitive player in the global automotive industry, with Morocco at the center of this transformation.