Casablanca – Morocco is preparing for an exceptional olive season in 2025–2026, with projections pointing toward record production levels that could surpass two million tons of olives and significantly impact domestic olive oil prices. This comes after a challenging previous season when olive oil prices soared due to low output and adverse climatic conditions.
Industry estimates indicate that total olive oil production could reach between 2,000,000 and 2,500,000 tons, a sharp increase compared to last year’s 200,000 tons. This surge is largely attributed to improved rainfall, favorable temperatures, and recovery from previous droughts that had suppressed yields.
The ample supply is expected to translate into a sharp reduction in retail prices for consumers. Olive oil prices could fall to around $5.15 per liter, down from more than $10.30 per liter last year, when scarcity pushed prices to record highs. This adjustment offers relief for Moroccan households, where olive oil is a staple ingredient in daily diets.
Extended harvest season
The olive harvesting period may extend longer than usual this year due to delayed rainfall and a shortage of seasonal labor. Harvesting could continue into late January or early February 2026. Despite these logistical challenges, expectations remain high for a productive season, both for domestic consumption and export markets.
Geographical distribution and production hubs
Morocco’s main olive-producing regions continue to be Fez-Meknes, the Oriental region, and Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima, which together account for nearly two-thirds of national output. The consistent performance of these regions underscores their role as the backbone of the Moroccan olive sector, providing both domestic supply and exportable surplus.
Export opportunities and market diversification
Morocco is not only aiming to meet domestic demand but also to expand its presence in international markets. Data from the Exchange Office show that during the first half of 2024, Moroccan olive oil exports reached 8,498 tons, compared with 4,859 tons during the same period in 2023, despite export restrictions introduced to safeguard domestic supply.
Key export destinations include Spain, which accounted for nearly half of Morocco’s extra virgin olive oil exports in 2023, as well as the United States, which imported over 1.25 million kilograms during the same year. Other important markets include Italy, Canada, and Malaysia, reflecting a strategic diversification that reduces reliance on any single market.
Experts note that continued investment in storage, processing, and distribution infrastructure will be essential to capitalize on this production boom. Improved logistics will help maintain quality, reduce post-harvest losses, and ensure Moroccan producers and consumers benefit from favorable market conditions.
From last year’s challenges to this year’s opportunities
The previous agricultural season (2024–2025) saw a marked decline in olive production, falling to approximately 950,000 tons due to persistent drought, heatwaves affecting flowering, and the natural cyclical pattern of olive tree yields. The resulting scarcity led to sharply increased prices, underscoring the sector’s vulnerability to climatic fluctuations.
In contrast, the 2025–2026 season reflects both favorable weather and better resource management, allowing Morocco to rebound strongly. Analysts predict that this season could restore stability to domestic markets and enhance the country’s export capacity, providing a dual benefit for local consumers and international trade.
Morocco’s olive sector is entering a pivotal season, combining record production with the promise of more affordable prices for consumers. With proper planning and investment in supply chain infrastructure, the country has an opportunity to strengthen its position as a major olive oil producer globally while ensuring that farmers and consumers alike benefit from this exceptional season.
