Casablanca – Morocco is entering the second half of 2026 with stronger financial buffers and renewed confidence in its economic outlook, even as rising energy prices, geopolitical tensions, and weaker global growth continue to pressure import-dependent economies.
Presenting an update on the implementation of the 2026 Finance Law before the House of Councillors, Fouzi Lekjaa said recent indicators point to a resilient national economy and sound public finances despite what he described as an unusually difficult international environment.
His remarks came as the global economy faces renewed uncertainty linked to conflict in the Middle East, higher oil and gas prices, and disruptions in supply chains. According to the International Monetary Fund, world growth is expected to slow in 2026 while inflation remains elevated and international trade expands at a more moderate pace.
Foreign exchange reserves rise to $48.4 billion
One of the strongest indicators highlighted by Lekjaa was Morocco’s growing stock of foreign exchange reserves.
At the end of April 2026, official reserves stood at approximately $48.4 billion, an increase of 23.4% compared with the same period a year earlier. This level is sufficient to cover nearly six months of imports of goods and services.
For Morocco, which imports nearly all of its energy requirements, this reserve position plays a critical role in maintaining macroeconomic stability. It allows the country to continue financing strategic imports such as fuel, food, and industrial inputs while reassuring investors and international lenders about the country’s external solvency.
Energy prices surge as geopolitical tensions intensify
Lekjaa said the global environment has become more challenging since March, particularly because of instability in the Middle East and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global energy trade passes.
During the first four months of the year:
- Crude oil prices rose 46%, averaging $102 per barrel and peaking at $119.
- Diesel prices increased nearly 70% to $1,218 per metric ton.
- Butane gas prices climbed 33% to $727 per ton.
- Fuel oil used in electricity generation rose 58% to $593 per ton.
- Natural gas prices increased 53%, reaching the equivalent of about $55 per megawatt-hour.
These increases have significantly raised import costs for Morocco and heightened pressure on the state budget.
Tax revenues exceed expectations
Despite external pressures, public revenues continued to improve in early 2026.
Tax receipts increased by approximately $1.07 billion through the end of April, representing growth of 8.5% compared with the same period in 2025. Collections reached 36.3% of the annual target established in the Finance Law.
Corporate income tax posted the strongest performance, rising by approximately $938 million, a 25% increase year over year.
Additional gains were recorded in:
- Value-added tax: $134 million
- Personal income tax: $103 million
- Domestic consumption taxes: $88 million
- Registration and stamp duties: $103 million
These results suggest that business activity and domestic demand have remained relatively robust.
Continued support for households and strategic sectors
To protect purchasing power from rising global energy costs, the government continues to finance substantial subsidies.
Monthly allocations include:
- $61.9 million to stabilize butane gas prices
- $67.0 million to support transportation costs
- $30.9 million to contain electricity prices
Together, these measures represent nearly $160 million per month in direct support to households and businesses.
The government has also mobilized approximately $1.13 billion to support livestock farmers and preserve the national herd, with the aim of helping stabilize meat prices.
Inflation remains below 1%
Morocco has so far avoided a significant acceleration in consumer prices.
According to Lekjaa, inflation remained below 1% during the first quarter of 2026, reaching 0.9% in March. This relatively low rate has helped preserve purchasing power and sustain a stable business environment.
Growth forecast above 5.3%
The government expects the national economy to grow by more than 5.3% in 2026.
The outlook is supported by favorable rainfall and a projected cereal harvest of around 9 million metric tons, as well as continued strength in tourism, automotive manufacturing, phosphate exports, aerospace, and remittances from Moroccans living abroad.
Lekjaa noted that each additional 2 million metric tons of cereal production contributes roughly 0.3 percentage points to national value added, underlining the continued importance of agriculture to Morocco’s economic performance.
Deficit and debt targets maintained
The government remains committed to reducing the budget deficit to 3% of gross domestic product by the end of 2026, compared with 3.5% in 2025, while lowering public debt to approximately 66% of GDP.
Ordinary state revenues increased from approximately $26.4 billion in 2021 to about $43.7 billion in 2025, reflecting what officials describe as a structural strengthening of public finances.
International institutions maintain confidence
Morocco has renewed its Flexible Credit Line with the IMF, a precautionary arrangement reserved for countries with strong economic policies and sound institutions.
The country has also maintained investment-grade ratings from S&P Global Ratings, while Moody’s Ratings revised Morocco’s outlook from stable to positive.
In addition, Morocco improved its score by four points in the 2025 Open Budget Index, reflecting progress in budget transparency and fiscal governance.
Stronger buffers in an uncertain world
The latest data suggest that Morocco has entered 2026 with stronger reserves, improved revenue performance, and relatively low inflation, allowing the government to continue supporting households while pursuing deficit and debt reduction.
Although the global environment remains volatile, the country’s strengthened financial position provides greater room to manage external shocks and maintain economic stability in the months ahead.
