Casablanca – Morocco is gearing up for what experts are calling a historic olive harvest in 2025, a development that could bring much-needed relief to consumers after years of soaring olive oil prices. After reaching retail levels above $10 in previous seasons, analysts and producers alike now anticipate a sharp drop, with prices potentially settling between $5 and $5.35 per liter, depending on regional yields and market dynamics.

The optimism stems from a combination of favorable weather, mature plantations, and increased production capacity. Generous rainfall in March and April has revitalized orchards across the country’s main olive-growing regions, effectively breaking the cycle of drought that has affected the sector in recent years. Sector estimates indicate that the 2025 crop could reach an unprecedented 200,000 tons, surpassing the previous national record of approximately 160,000 tons set in the 2009–2010 season.

This record-breaking output is further supported by the maturation of nearly 250,000 hectares of olive trees planted under the Green Morocco Plan. Many of these orchards, planted years ago, are now entering full production, significantly boosting yield potential. Modern groves are expected to achieve productivity levels up to 40 tons per hectare in some areas, a figure unmatched in Moroccan olive farming history.

A notable innovation contributing to this surge is the introduction of the Moroccan “Tassaout” cultivar, developed by the National Institute of Agronomic Research (INRA). This self-pollinating variety is highly productive and produces olive oil of superior quality, rivaling even the Greek “Koroneiki” variety. Tassaout complements traditional local cultivars such as Picholine Marocaine, Haouzia, and Menara, enhancing both the volume and quality of the national harvest.

Market expectations indicate that domestic consumption, estimated at 140,000 tons annually, will be more than covered by the anticipated production. The surplus is expected to be exported to Europe, North America, and the Middle East, where demand for premium olive oil continues to grow. However, producers have cautioned that maintaining sufficient domestic supply is essential to ensure local prices decrease as projected. Several olive growers, particularly in Beni Mellal, Kalaat Sraghna, Tazrout (Tata), Moulay Yacoub, and Ouezzane, stress that halting exports temporarily could help stabilize prices for Moroccan consumers.

Producers also note that improved irrigation and favorable rainfall have led to healthier trees and higher-quality fruit, reducing the risk of production losses due to adverse weather events. In addition, the absence of damaging thunderstorms this season has allowed groves to remain in optimal condition, unlike previous years when sudden weather events negatively affected yields.

Retail prices are expected to fall significantly, with forecasts ranging from $5 to $5.35 per liter, compared to the current average of $11–$12 per liter in some markets. The price of raw olives is also projected to decrease, potentially falling well below last year’s levels of about $3.50 per kilogram, as abundant supply and competitive market dynamics come into play.

Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch highlighted that while the government does not control market prices directly, the record harvest should naturally lead to more affordable olive oil for Moroccan households. He also emphasized the broader economic benefits of this agricultural boom, noting that increased output in olives, dates, citrus fruits, and vegetables could generate more than 200,000 economic opportunities nationwide and strengthen Morocco’s overall agricultural performance.

Logistical challenges remain a factor in how quickly these price reductions reach consumers. Limited milling capacity, storage constraints, and intermediary practices can influence market prices, particularly in areas with heavy production. Experts urge careful management of the harvest, pressing, and distribution processes to ensure quality is maintained and the expected consumer benefits are realized.

The 2025 olive harvest represents a potential turning point for Morocco’s olive oil market. With record production, favorable weather, and new high-yield cultivars, the country is poised to achieve a historic increase in supply. If logistical and export considerations are managed effectively, Moroccan consumers could see olive oil prices drop by more than 50 percent, making this essential household staple significantly more accessible while positioning Morocco as a stronger competitor in the global olive oil market.

The season’s outcomes will not only provide relief for families but also offer strategic opportunities for the agricultural sector, balancing domestic needs with export potential and cementing Morocco’s reputation as a key player in the international olive oil industry.