Casablanca – – Morocco’s national economy is projected to grow by 4.6% in 2025, according to a report from the Ministry of Economy and Finance. This robust growth is attributed largely to the anticipated rebound in the agricultural sector, alongside stable performance in non-agricultural industries.

The report, which accompanies the draft finance law for the upcoming year, highlights a notable increase in agricultural added value, assuming an average farming season. The recovery in this vital sector is projected to contribute to the country’s overall economic expansion, while non-agricultural sectors are expected to maintain steady growth, in line with trends seen in 2024.

Sector performance and external trade

The secondary and tertiary sectors are forecast to experience growth rates of 2.9% and 4.1%, respectively. Exports will play a crucial role in driving the national economy forward, contributing 3 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025. However, the impact of imports is expected to dampen some of this progress, with import growth forecasted to subtract 3.8 percentage points from overall GDP growth, resulting in a net negative contribution from foreign trade of around 0.8 percentage points.

Key drivers of domestic demand

Final consumption is also expected to play a significant role in the country’s economic expansion, contributing 3.9 percentage points to overall growth. This is primarily fueled by a rise in household spending, which is projected to contribute 2.8 percentage points. Public sector consumption is expected to add an additional 1.1 percentage points, as government spending remains a key pillar of domestic demand.

Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation, or investment in physical assets, is projected to contribute 0.8 percentage points to growth, reflecting a continued commitment to infrastructure development and business expansion.

Assumptions behind the forecast

The Ministry’s forecast for 2025 is built upon several assumptions regarding both the national and international economic environments. Globally, Morocco’s external demand is expected to grow at an average rate of 3.2%. Additionally, the price of Brent crude oil is projected to stabilize at $80 per barrel, while the euro-to-dollar exchange rate is forecast to remain at 1.085, with the dirham trading at 9.8 to the dollar.

Agriculture: A major growth engine

A critical factor underpinning the optimistic forecast for 2025 is the expected recovery in Morocco’s agricultural sector. The Ministry projects that the sector will produce 70 million quintals of crops, resulting in an 11% growth in agricultural added value. This recovery is seen as pivotal for overall economic performance, as agriculture remains a cornerstone of the Moroccan economy.

External demand and trade outlook

The Ministry also anticipates an acceleration in external demand for Moroccan goods, with growth expected to reach 3.2% in 2025. This comes after a period of stagnation, where external demand grew by just 2.2% in 2022 and contracted by 1% in 2023. Although exports are forecast to grow by 7.1% in 2025, a slight slowdown is anticipated as the country returns to more typical growth rates after a period of higher-than-average export growth. Imports, on the other hand, are expected to grow by 6.8%, down from the 8% growth expected in 2024.

Outlook for 2025 and beyond

Looking beyond 2025, the Ministry expects the pace of economic growth to slow slightly, signaling a gradual return to longer-term trends. However, with a solid foundation in place, bolstered by a recovering agricultural sector, steady export growth, and strong domestic demand, Morocco’s economy appears well-positioned to maintain stability and resilience in the face of global economic uncertainties.

The coming year promises to be a critical one for Morocco, as the country aims to balance its domestic and international economic strategies to sustain growth, while ensuring that key sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing continue to flourish.