Casablanca-Morocco witnessed a robust business performance in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the latest findings from the High Commission for Planning (HCP). Against the backdrop of a dynamic recovery in global trade, both national exports and imports of goods and services experienced notable increases, marking a significant turnaround from previous quarters.

Export figures surged by 15.5%, while imports rose by 15.2% in annual changes, compared to the preceding quarter where the growth rates stood at +8.1% and +9.3%, respectively. This growth was particularly driven by key sectors such as the automotive industry, wire, interior seats, and leather, which collectively contributed to the expansion of overall exports. The ongoing global demand for automobiles and electrical products further fueled the growth in exports, with sectors like electrical and electronic industries and aviation making notable contributions.

However, despite the overall positive trend, sales of phosphates and its derivatives continued to exert a negative impact on the total export value due to lower global market prices compared to the previous year. Yet, the decline in their impact was less severe than in previous quarters.

On the import front, a decline of 0.6% in value was observed, primarily attributed to price deflation and a decrease in international prices of raw materials. This decline was particularly notable in energy products and semi-finished goods. Conversely, imports of industrial capital goods, including machinery and commercial vehicles, witnessed an uptick, supported by increased external demand.

The positive momentum observed in the third quarter of 2023 is expected to persist into the fourth quarter, with investment contributing significantly to overall growth. Total capital formation is projected to grow by 12.8%, fueled by increased external demand for automotive, electrical, and electronics products.

Despite these positive indicators, household spending is expected to maintain moderate growth, with durable goods experiencing the most significant uptick due to declining prices. However, food and agricultural consumption continue to be affected by higher prices, offsetting some of the gains in household spending.

Overall, the fourth quarter of 2023 has seen Morocco’s economy continue its recovery trajectory, with strong export performance, reduced trade deficit, and sustained investment contributing to overall growth. However, challenges such as fluctuating global market prices and slowing household revenues persist, highlighting the need for continued vigilance and adaptive economic policies.